Building a risk map for hurricane-force tropical cyclones in continental Portugal

Mestrado Bolonha em Actuarial ScienceTropical cyclones have enormous destructive potential. In 2018 continental Por- tugal has been affected by hurricane Leslie, the weather-related event having the highest impact ever on the property portfolio of the portuguese insurance company Fidelidade, causing several millions euros of losses. The fear is that, in the near future, the occurrence of this type of events increases in intensity and frequency, as a consequence of the climate change due to the warming of the planet. Quantifying the potential loss to which the property portfolio of Fidelidade could be subject to, helps in approximately determining premiums and capital reserves, as well as in defining the coverage to be provided. In this work, an approach to model the costs caused by a tropical cyclone extreme event is presented. The model is based on the losses incurred by the property port- folio of Fidelidade due to hurricane Leslie. By using the estimated models, it is possible to produce cost estimates for different scenarios of interest for the com- pany. The estimated models are also used to build a risk map for the councils of continental Portugal. The results obtained indicate that the councils with the estimated higher average cost ratio are all located along the coast of the country.Ciclones tropicais têm um enorme potencial de destruição. Em 2018, Portugal continental foi atingido pelo furacão Leslie, que constituiu o fenómeno metereológico de maior impacto, até à data, no portfolio da companhia de seguros Fidelidade, causando milhões de euros em perdas. De facto, os ciclones tropicais têm um enorme potencial de destruição. A preocupação é que, em breve, a ocorrência deste tipo de fenómenos aumente em intensidade e frequência, como consequência das mudanças climáticas provocadas pelo aquecimento global. Quantificar a potencial perda à qual a companhia Fidelidade pode estar sujeita ajuda a determinar aproximadamente os prémios e provisões, assim como a definir a cobertura a ser providenciada. Neste trabalho, é apresentada uma abordagem para modelar os custos causados por um ciclone tropical extremo. O modelo é baseado nas perdas provocadas ao portfolio da Fidelidade pelo furacão Leslie. Ao usar os modelos, é possível produzir custos estimados para diferentes cenários de interesse da companhia. Os modelos estimados sã também utilizados para construir um mapa de risco para os conselhos de Portugal continental. Os resultados obtidos indicam que os conselhos com a maior taxa média de custos estimada estão localizados ao longo da costa do país.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Fast electrophoresis in conventional capillaries by employing a rapid injection device and contactless conductivity detection

A purpose-made set-up featuring an automated fast injector allowed the easy optimization of the injected amount and the adjustment of the separation length of conventional capillaries from a minimum of 5cm upward. It was found that a compromise in capillary length for separation efficiency and analysis time also has to take into account the injected amount, which in turn affects the sensitivity and hence the detection limit. The versatility of the system was demonstrated by the analysis of the major cations and anions in natural water samples in less than 1min, the concurrent determination of a mixture of amino acids and carbohydrates in 160s, and of three active ingredients in a pharmaceutical preparation in 40s. Plate numbers were typically around 50,000 and detection limits down to 1μM could be achieve

Status of Women and Gender Equity at CWRU - 2021

The first bi-annual report from the Flora Stone Mather Center reviews the representation of women as well as the intersections of race/ethnicity and gender identities across CWRU executive leadership, faculty, staff, and students.https://commons.case.edu/mathercenter-briefs/1003/thumbnail.jp

Improper Supplementation Habits of Folic Acid Intake by Hungarian Pregnant Women: Improper Recommendations

Background: Neural tube defects (NTDs) are some of the most common congenital anomalies. Proper folic acid supplementation is a dominant risk factor, which has been shown to decrease the incidence of NTDs. In Canada, the incidence of neuroblastoma has presented a considerable decrease of 60% as a result of enrichment cereal grain flours with synthetic folic acid. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of folic acid intake by pregnant women on the incidence of NTDs and neuroblastoma. Methods: Regular folic acid intake has been recommended to pregnant women in Hungary since the eighties of the last century by health visitors eventually raking effect as an official protocol which had been released in 1997. During 2001, 2002 and 2003. folic acid intake habits of pregnant women were evaluated by health visitors, proving to be successful in collecting data front 95.06% of the pregnant women. The incidence of NTDs has been registered by the Hungarian National Centre of Epidemiology, Department of Human Genetics and Teratology. The Pediatric Cancer Registry provided the incidence of neuroblastoma in children. Results: Consistent findings revealed a regular intake of supplementary folic acid products by 68.71% of the pregnant women. Out of these. 93.13% of pregnant women who were taking folic acid, started the supplementation after their 7 weeks of pregnancies, a time designated as the completion period of the development of the neural tube. The dose of folic acid supplementation was evaluated as less than 5 mg/day in 84.75% of the pregnant women. In Hungary, the incidence of NTDs has remained constant, while the incidence of neuroblastoma has shown constant slight increase in spite of the introduction of folic acid supplementation in 1997. Conclusions: Based on our experience, folic acid supplementation was initiated after the recognition of pregnancy and its application in a dose of lower than 5 mg/day neither decreased the incidence of NTDs nor did it have an effect on the neuroblastoma incidence. It is implicated that proper folic acid supplementation, which is started front the conception. can be achieved only with the enrichment of cereal grain flours

WISER: Women in Science and Engineering Roundtable

This brief provides an overview of Case Western Reserve University\u27s Women in Science and Engineering Roundtable, including student evaluation and national metrics about women in STEMhttps://commons.case.edu/mathercenter-briefs/1000/thumbnail.jp

Building a hurricane risk map for continental Portugal based on loss data from hurricane Leslie

A complete model to analyse and predict future losses in the property portfolio of an insurance company due to hurricanes is proposed. A novel statistical model, in which weather data is not required, is considered. Climate data may not be reliable, or may be difficult to deal with or to obtain, hence we reconstruct the storm behaviour through the registered claims and respective losses. The model is calibrated using the loss data of the property portfolio of the insurance company Fidelidade, from hurricane Leslie, which hit the center of continental Portugal in October 2018. Several scenarios are simulated and risk maps are built. The simulated scenarios can be used to compute risk premiums per risk class in the portfolio. These can be used to adjust the policy premiums accounting for a storm risk. The risk map of the company also depends on its portfolio, namely its exposure, providing a hurricane risk management tool for the insurance company.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Die Nationale Sicherheitsstrategie der USA und die Europäische Sicherheitsstrategie: ein Vergleich des Unvergleichbaren

"Die transatlantischen Beziehungen gelten als Eckpfeiler im globalen System. Von ihrem Funktionieren hängt das globale Gleichgewicht ab. Die amerikanische Sicherheitsstrategie aus 2002 führte zu einer eingehenden internationalen Diskussion der Rolle, welche die USA für sich auf der internationalen Bühne vorgesehen haben. Die Europäische Union reagierte - insbesondere aufgrund der verstärkten Spannungen mit den USA - erstmals mit der Präsentation einer eigenen Sicherheitsstrategie, die als Erstfassung unter dem Titel 'Solana-Doktrin' im Juni 2003 vorgestellt und im Dezember 2003 beschlossen wurde. Sie gilt als teilweise 'Kopie' der amerikanischen Strategie und zeigt die Vernetztheit der internationalen Sicherheitslage auf. Beide Sicherheitsstrategien spiegeln die jeweiligen Interessen und Wahrnehmungen der handelnden Akteure wider und zeigen sehr deutlich den strategischen Maßstab in den internationalen Beziehungen auf - und vor allem wer diesen Maßstab bestimmt. In dieser Publikation werden beide Ansätze verglichen und als Grundlage künftiger transatlantischer Beziehungen analysiert." (Autorenreferat

A gyermekkori Ewing szarkómával szerzett magyarországi tapasztalataink

Magyarországon évente kb. 7-9 új Ewing szarkómás gyermeket diagnosztizálunk. Jelen munkánk célja az volt, hogy az Országos Gyermektumor Regiszter adatait felhasználva megvizsgáljuk a magyarországi Ewing szarkómás gyermekek prezentációs tüneteit, a klinikai paramétereket, a prognosztikai faktorokat, a terápiás és a túlélési eredményeket 1992 és 2002 közötti 11 éves periódusban. A fenti időszakban 88 új beteg került diagnosztizálásra, a fiú – leány arány 1,05 : 1 volt, az átlagéletkor 11 év 7 hónapnak bizonyult. A két leggyakoribb prezentációs tünet a lokális fájdalom és duzzanat voltak. 38 betegünkben hosszú csöves csontra lokalizálódott a megbetegedés, 29 gyermekben a Ewing szarkóma a csípő tájékról indult ki és 21 esetben valamely egyéb testtájékról. A betegeink közel egyharmadánál (29/88) már a diagnózis felállításakor áttétek voltak kimutathatóak. A fent nevezett időszakban három kemoterápiás protokollt alkalmaztunk Magyarországon: a CWS, az EICESS/CESS és 1999. decembere óta az Euro-EWING 99 protokollt. A 88 beteg 37,5%-nál (33/88) észleltünk recidívát átlagosan 22,4 hónappal a primer diagnózis felállítása után. A 88 betegből 45 jelenleg is él, az átlag követési idő 28,6 hónap. Az összes beteg 5-éves kumulatív túlélési valószínűsége 48,06±5,9%, a 10 éves 42,91±6,3%. A metasztázissal rendelkező betegek 5 és 8 éves túlélése 19,91±9,4%, a metasztázis nélküliek 5 éves túlélése 60,23±6,9%, míg a 10 éves 52,82±7,8%. A hazai eredmények megközelítik a nemzetközi adatokat, azonban törekednünk kell a diagnózis korai felállítására és ezáltal a kimondottan rossz prognózisú primer metasztatikus esetek számának csökkentésére. The number of newly diagnosed children in a year with Ewing’s sarcoma is 7-9 in Hungary. The aim of our study was to evaluate the presenting symptoms, clinical features, prognostic risk factors and treatment results of children’s Ewing’s sarcoma in Hungary using data from the National Childhood Cancer Registry in a 11 years-long period between 1992 and 2002. In this period, 88 new patients were diagnosed, the male-female ratio was 1,05:1 and the mean age was 11 years 7 months. The two most common presenting symptoms were local pain and swallowing. Tumor was located in the pelvis area in 29 patients, in the extremities in 38 and other sites in 21 cases. Almost one third of our patients (29/88) had metastasis at the time of the diagnosis. In this time period, three different protocols were used for treatment: CWS, EICESS/CESS and since December 1999 Euro-EWING 99. 37,5% of our patients (33/88) had relapse with a mean of 22,4 months after the diagnosis. 45 children are still alive, the median follow-up time is 28,6 months. The overall survival (OS) of all patients (n=88) was 48,06±5,9% at 5 years and 42,91±6,3% at 10 years. Patients with metastasis had OS 19,91±9,4% at 5 and at 8 years. The 5-year OS of children without metastasis was 60,23±6,9%, and 52,82±7,8% at 10 years. The Hungarian data are similar to international results, but we have to try to decrease the number of the primary metastatic cases with early diagnosis

Dissection of the Bradyrhizobium japonicum NifA+σ54 regulon, and identification of a ferredoxin gene ( fdxN ) for symbiotic nitrogen fixation

Hierarchically organized regulatory proteins form a complex network for expression control of symbiotic and accessory genes in the nitrogen-fixing soybean symbiont Bradyrhizobium japonicum. A genome-wide survey of regulatory interactions was made possible with the design of a custom-made gene chip. Here, we report the first use of the microarray in a comprehensive and complete characterization of the B. japonicum NifA+σ54 regulon which forms an important node in the entire network. Comparative transcript profiles of anaerobically grown wild-type, nifA, and rpoN 1/2 mutant cells were complemented with a position-specific frequency matrix-based search for NifA- and σ54-binding sites plus a simple operon definition. One of the newly identified NifA+σ54-dependent genes, fdxN, encodes a ferredoxin required for efficient symbiotic nitrogen fixation, which makes it a candidate for being a direct electron donor to nitrogenase. The fdxN gene has an unconventional, albeit functional σ54 promoter with the dinucleotide GA instead of the consensus GC motif at position −12. A GC-containing mutant promoter and the atypical GA-containing promoter of the wild type were disparately activated. Expression analyses were also carried out with two other NifA+σ54 targets (ectC; ahpC). Incidentally, the tiling-like design of the microarray has helped to arrive at completely revised annotations of the ectC- and ahpC-upstream DNA regions, which are now compatible with promoter locations. Taken together, the approaches used here led to a substantial expansion of the NifA+σ54 regulon size, culminating in a total of 65 genes for nitrogen fixation and diverse other processe