Community engagement and its role in fire prevention in a West Midlands neighbourhood

In this thesis I investigate inequality in the way in which fires are distributed through society, in particular exploring the role played in this by community engagement and the relationship between public service providers and the communities that they serve. The thesis begins with an extensive, quantitative investigation of the distribution of accidental dwelling fires in the West Midlands. By analysing service data from the West Midlands Fire Service, together with a range of socio-economic and demographic data, I establish that there is considerable inequality in the way in which fire is distributed, with economic status, ethnic make-up and household structure in an area all being predictive of rates of fire. Conceptualising this inequality as an inequality in the delivery of fire prevention work, I then focus in on one socially disadvantaged area with high rates of fire. In the second part of the thesis I use an intensive, interpretivist approach to explore perceptions of, and attitudes towards, public services, and whether these hamper the ability to deliver effective fire prevention initiatives. Residents rarely thought about the fire service directly, with fire not perceived as a priority. However, the fire service was often associated with other services in people’s minds, and I found a number of factors that disinclined people from interacting with public services in general. These include disillusionment, a sense of feeling judged, a fear of adverse consequences and a lack of awareness of the services available. Building on these findings I argue that for engagement to take place community members must feel that there is a space available for dialogue that is safe, comfortable and rewarding. In an area characterised by multiple, heterogeneous communities, many different spaces will be needed to ensure dialogue with the widest range of people. The work both updates knowledge of inequality in the distribution of fire and contributes to understanding of the way in which access to public services can be restricted by the taken-for-granted assumptions of service providers

Socio-economic and demographic predictors of accidental dwelling fire rates

Despite the considerable reduction in rates of fire that have been seen in the UK in recent years analysis of three years of service data from a large UK fire service reveals that there continue to be striking inequalities in the way in which fire is distributed through society. The use of principal component analysis (PCA) and ordinary least squares regression enabled the development of a model that explains around one third of the variance in rates of fire at small neighbourhood level using just three predictor variables: the proportion of residents identifying as Black, the proportion of residents who have not worked for more than five years or have never worked, and the proportion of single person households where the resident is aged under 65. The value of PCA in addressing problems of collinearity between potential predictor variables is particularly highlighted. The findings serve to update understanding of the distribution of fire in the light of the ongoing reduction in fire rates of recent years. They will help fire services to target fire safety interventions to those neighbourhoods and communities where they are most needed and have the greatest potential to bring about reductions in the rate of fire

Genetic diversity affects seedling survival but not growth or seed germination in the Bornean endemic dipterocarp Parashorea tomentella

Background: Logging and habitat fragmentation of tropical rain forests may disrupt patterns of gene flow and genetic diversity. Consequently, inbreeding in tree populations may reduce fitness and increase extinction risks, especially among species that are predominantly outcrossing, dependent on biotic pollination and/or display limited seed dispersal such as species of the Dipterocarpaceae. Aims: To test the hypothesis that heterozygosity of individual progeny affects their likelihood of germination and the growth and survival of seedlings. Methods: Standardised measure of multilocus heterozygosity (sMLH) was estimated from seven microsatellite loci for individual progeny collected from 18 mother trees of the large dipterocarp Parashorea tomentella. The relationships among sMLH, germination and seedling growth and survival were determined for the progeny. Results: Seedling survival over 18 months increased with greater sMLH and fresh fruit weight. This result was expressed under all experimentally controlled combinations of light and nutrient availability in the nursery and in the shaded understorey of primary forest where survival overall was much lower than in the nursery. sMLH did not affect the probability of germination or seedling growth rate in any experimental treatment. Conclusions: These results provide evidence that reduced heterozygosity is associated with reduced seedling survival in a tropical forest tree species

Wearable near-infrared spectroscopy as a physiological monitoring tool for seals under anaesthesia

Chemical immobilisation of pinnipeds is a routine procedure in research and veterinary practice. Yet, there are inevitable risks associated with chemical immobilisation, and the physiological response to anaesthetic agents in pinnipeds remains poorly understood. The current study used wearable continuous-wave near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) data from 10 trials of prolonged anaesthesia (0.5 to 1.4 h) induced through ketamine and midazolam in five grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) involved in other procedures. The aim of this study was to (1) analyse the effect of each compound on heart rate, arterial oxygen saturation (SpO2), and relative concentration changes in oxygenated [ΔO2Hb] and deoxygenated haemoglobin [ΔHHb] in cerebral tissue and (2) to investigate the use of NIRS as a real-time physiological monitoring tool during chemical immobilisation. Average group responses of ketamine (n = 27) and midazolam (n = 11) administrations were modelled using generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) for each dependent variable. Following ketamine and midazolam administration, [ΔHHb] increased and [ΔO2Hb] remained relatively stable, which was indicative of apnoea. Periods of apnoea were confirmed from respiratory band data, which were simultaneously collected during drugging trials. Given that SpO2 remained at 97% during apnoea, we hypothesized that increasing cerebral [ΔHHb] was a result of venous congestion as opposed to decreased oxygen delivery. Changes in heart rate were limited and appeared to be driven by the individual pharmacological actions of each drug. Future research could include simultaneous measures of metabolic rate, such as the relative change in concentration of cytochrome-c-oxidase, to guide operators in determining when apnoea should be considered prolonged if changes in [ΔHHb] and [ΔO2Hb] occur beyond the limits recorded in this study. Our findings support the use of NIRS as real-time physiological monitoring tool during pinniped chemical immobilisation, which could assist veterinarians and researchers in performing safe anaesthetic procedures

Uncovering Networks from Genome-Wide Association Studies via Circular Genomic Permutation

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) aim to detect single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) associated with trait variation. However, due to the large number of tests, standard analysis techniques impose highly stringent significance thresholds, leaving potentially associated SNPs undetected, and much of the trait genetic variation unexplained. Pathway- and network-based methodologies applied to GWAS aim to detect associations missed by standard single-marker approaches. The complex and non-random architecture of the genome makes it a challenge to derive an appropriate testing framework for such methodologies. We developed a rapid and simple permutation approach that uses GWAS SNP association results to establish the significance of pathway associations while accounting for the linkage disequilibrium structure of SNPs and the clustering of functionally related elements in the genome. All SNPs used in the GWAS are placed in a “circular genome” according to their location. Then the complete set of SNP association P values are permuted by rotation with respect to the genomic locations of the SNPs. Once these “simulated” P values are assigned, the joint gene P values are calculated using Fisher’s combination test, and the association of pathways is tested using the hypergeometric test. The circular genomic permutation approach was applied to a human genome-wide association dataset. The data consists of 719 individuals from the ORCADES study genotyped for ∼300,000 SNPs and measured for 51 traits ranging from physical to biochemical measurements. KEGG pathways (n = 225) were used as the sets of pathways to be tested. Our results demonstrate that the circular genomic permutations provide robust association P values. The non-permuted hypergeometric analysis generates ∼1400 pathway-trait combination results with an association P value more significant than P ≤ 0.05, whereas applying circular genomic permutation reduces the number of significant results to a more credible 40% of that value. The circular permutation software (“genomicper”) is available as an R package at http://cran.r-project.org/

Genetic Comparison of a Croatian Isolate and CEPH European Founders

Human isolates have been postulated as a good resource for the identification of QTL due to reduced genetic diversity and a more homogeneous environment. Isolates may also have increased linkage disequilibrium (LD) due to small effective population size and, either loss or increase in frequency of alleles that are rare in the general population from which they originate. Here we investigate the difference in allele and genotype frequencies, LD and homozygous tracts between an isolate—several villages from the island of Vis in Croatia—and an outbred population of European origin: the Hapmap CEPH founders. Using the HumanHap300 v1 Genotyping BeadChip, we show that our population does not differ greatly from the reference CEU outbred population despite having a slightly higher proportion of monomorphic loci, a slightly higher long-range LD, and a greater proportion of individuals with long homozygous tracts. We conclude that genotyping arrays should perform equally well in our isolate as in outbred European populations for disease mapping studies and that SNP–trait associations discovered in our well-characterized Croatian isolate should be valid in the general European population from which they descend. Genet. Epidemiol. 34: 140–145, 2010. © 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc

UVA and Seasonal Patterning of 56 370 Myocardial Infarctions Across Scotland, 2000–2011

Background: Myocardial infarction exhibits seasonal patterning, with higher amplitude at increased latitude. Epidemiological evidence suggests that sunlight is protective against cardiovascular disease, independent of ambient temperature, but ultraviolet B–mediated vitamin D production has been discounted as causal. We aimed to determine whether ultraviolet A is associated with the seasonal patterning of myocardial infarction. Methods and Results: Routine hospitalization data were used to determine monthly incidence of myocardial infarction in Scotland between 2000 and 2011. Small‐area–level aggregated data were obtained on ambient temperature from the Meteorological Office and ultraviolet A and ultraviolet B irradiance from NASA satellites. Autoregressive distributed lag models were run for ultraviolet A and myocardial infarction, including adjustment for ambient temperature and ultraviolet B. Monthly incidence of myocardial infarction displayed winter peaks and summer troughs superimposed on the underlying trend, with a mean amplitude of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) myocardial infarctions per 100 000 population per month. Ultraviolet A exposure was inversely associated with myocardial infarction independent of ambient temperature (coefficient, −0.05; 95% CI, −0.09, −0.01; P=0.015) and ultraviolet B UVB (coefficient, −0.05; 95% CI, −0.09, −0.02; P=0.004). Conclusions: Further research is required to explore whether an ultraviolet‐mediated mechanism different to vitamin D, such as nitric oxide–mediated vasodilatation, may play a causal role in the seasonal and geographical patterning of myocardial infarction

Antenatal exposure to solar radiation and learning disabilities: Population cohort study of 422,512 children

Learning disability varies by month of conception. The underlying mechanism is unknown but vitamin D, necessary for normal brain development, is commonly deficient over winter in high latitude countries due to insufficient ultraviolet radiation. We linked the 2007–2016 Scottish School Pupil Censuses to Scottish maternity records and to sunshine hours and antenatal ultraviolet A/B radiation exposure derived from weather stations and satellites respectively. Logistic regression analyses were used to explore the associations between solar radiation, then ultraviolet B, and learning disabilities, adjusting for the potential confounding effects of month of conception and sex. Of the 422,512 eligible, singleton schoolchildren born at term in Scotland, 79,616 (18.8%) had a learning disability. Total antenatal sunshine hours (highest quintile; adjusted OR 0.89; 95% CI: 0.86, 0.93; p < 0.001) and ultraviolet B exposure (highest quintile; adjusted OR 0.55; 95% CI: 0.51, 0.60; p < 0.001) were inversely associated with learning disabilities with evidence of a dose-relationship. The latter association was independent of ultraviolet A exposure. Significant associations were demonstrated for exposure in all three trimesters. Low maternal exposure to ultraviolet B radiation may play a role in the seasonal patterning of learning disabilities. Further studies are required to corroborate findings and determine the effectiveness of supplements