Forecasting Inflation in Tunisia Using Dynamic Factors Model

This work presents a forecasting inflation model using a monthly database. Conventional models for forecasting inflation use a small number of macroeconomic variables. In the context of globalization and dependent economic world, models have to account a large number of information. This model is the goal of recent research in the various industrialized countries as well as developing countries. With Dynamic Factors Model the forecast values are closer to actual inflation than those obtained from conventional models in the short term. In our research we devise the inflation in to “free inflation and administered inflation” and we test the performance of the DFM in different types of inflation namely administered and free inflation. We found that dynamic factors model leads to substantial forecasting improvements over simple benchmark regressions

Forecasting Inflation in Tunisia Using Dynamic Factors Model

This work presents a forecasting inflation model using a monthly database. Conventional models for forecasting inflation use a small number of macroeconomic variables. In the context of globalization and dependent economic world, models have to account a large number of information. This model is the goal of recent research in the various industrialized countries as well as developing countries. With Dynamic Factors Model the forecast values are closer to actual inflation than those obtained from conventional models in the short term. In our research we devise the inflation in to “free inflation and administered inflation” and we test the performance of the DFM in different types of inflation namely administered and free inflation. We found that dynamic factors model leads to substantial forecasting improvements over simple benchmark regressions

Forecasting Inflation in Tunisia into instability: Using Dynamic Factors Model a two-step based on Kalman filtering

This work presents a forecasting inflation model using a monthly database. Conventional models for forecasting inflation use a small number of macroeconomic variables. In the context of globalization and dependent economic world, models have to account a large number of information. This model is the goal of recent research in the various industrialized countries as well as developing countries. With Dynamic Factors Model the forecast values are closer to actual inflation than those obtained from conventional models in the short term. In our research we devise the inflation in to “free inflation and administered inflation” and we test the performance of the DFM into instability (before and after revolution) in different types of inflation and trend inflation namely administered and free inflation. We found that dynamic factors model with factor instability leads to substantial forecasting improvements over dynamic factor model without instability factor in period after revolution

The Static and Dynamic Effects of Mergers and Acquisitions on Productivity in The period Post-Subprime Crise: An Empirical Application to the Banking Sector in the European Union

This article aims to detect the dynamic effect of M & A of European banks on productivity during the period from 2005 to 2013. The estimation of our model by the GMM method allowed us to detect the following results. First, in the long term, the European banking structure seems to be submitted to the convergence phenomenon which means that the banking industry will probably governed by monopolistic structures which will share the market equally or nearly equal. Second, the production factors (labour and capital), had positive and significant effects on the banking product. However, the returns to scale are found to be decreasing as long as the sum of the labour coefficient (0.317) of fixed assets (0,132) and liquid assets (0.351) is less than unity. Third, the time had exerted a negative and significant effect on production which questions the validity of the chosen period characterized by the advent of the subprime crisis. Fourthly, the M & A had a significant positive instantaneous effect on production of banks which allows us to affirm that in a pessimistic environment; it seems that the M & A strategies can be effective solutions to overcome the crisis. Fifth, the dynamic effects of M & A are positive and significant on production which means that the advantage of said M & A appears better in the long term as long as in this time horizon the merged banks are more able to realize their mergers reducing the cost of restructuring and to release more than returns to scale

The Dynamic effects of Time, Health and of Well-being on the Pollution after the earth summit of Johunburg

In This paper we try to investigate the impact of CO2 emissions on a set of socioeconomic variables (GDP, health expectancy, life expectancy, urbanization, time, and a composite variable showing the effects post the earth summit of johansburg) in eight countries covering all world economic groups (Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, France, Norway, Bresil, USA, China and Australia). The empirical results have showed that the GDP continue to be the principal variable which is inciting to the CO2 emission. Also we have demonstrated that it exists actually a voluntary act at the world scale to substitute pollutant energy sources by other sources more clean and pure

Forecasting Inflation in Tunisia into instability: Using Dynamic Factors Model a two-step based on Kalman filtering

This work presents a forecasting inflation model using a monthly database. Conventional models for forecasting inflation use a small number of macroeconomic variables. In the context of globalization and dependent economic world, models have to account a large number of information. This model is the goal of recent research in the various industrialized countries as well as developing countries. With Dynamic Factors Model the forecast values are closer to actual inflation than those obtained from conventional models in the short term. In our research we devise the inflation in to “free inflation and administered inflation” and we test the performance of the DFM into instability (before and after revolution) in different types of inflation and trend inflation namely administered and free inflation. We found that dynamic factors model with factor instability leads to substantial forecasting improvements over dynamic factor model without instability factor in period after revolution

Highlighting of a new xanthine derivatives DDP4 inhibitor for diabetes mellitus drugs using Virtual screening

Le criblage virtuel par docking moléculaire est une nouvelle approche visant à simuler et prédire l’affinité d’un très grand nombre de ligands pour le site actif d’une cible thérapeutique donnée, ce qui est assez facile à mettre en place, plus rapide, pour un coût bien moindre que les criblages expérimentaux. Initié au début des années 1980, cette démarche s’est développée pour devenir, de nos jours, un outil incontournable dans la recherche de nouvelles molécules bioactives. Le présent travail consiste d’ailleurs à cribler virtuellement  par AutoDock une collection de 2558 molécules disponibles dans la banque de donnée PubChem, vis-à-vis le site actif de la Dipeptidyl-peptidase 4 : cible enzymatique récente, jouant un rôle prometteur dans le traitement du diabète de type 2. Cette enzyme sert à dégrader les hormones incrétines et notamment la GLP1 et GIP qui stimulent à eux seules la sécrétion d’environ 60% d’insuline dans le sang. Donc, en bloquant le site actif de la DPP4, nous pouvons allonger la durée d’action des hormones incrétines naturelles, et contribuer par la même à normaliser la glycémie chez les diabétiques de type 2.Virtual screening by molecular docking is a new approach aims to simulate and predict the affinity of a very large number of ligands for the active site of a given therapeutic target, which is considerably easier to implement, cheaper and faster than the use of experimental methods. Initiated in the beginning of 1980, this approach has developed to became, today, an essential tool for bioactive molecules’ research. This Work consists to screen of, with AutoDock, a collection of 2558 molecules dispensable in PubChem database, towards the active site of dipeptidyl peptidase 4:  recent enzyme target, playing a promising role in diabetes mellitus treatments. This enzyme serves to degrade incritin hormones, especially GLP1 and GIP, that stimulate, to them only, about 60 % of insulin’s secretion in the blood. So, by blocking the active site of DPP4, we can extend the duration of action of natural incretin’s hormones and contribute to normalize blood sugar levels for type 2 diabetics

Intussusception caused by an inverted Meckel's diverticulum: a rare cause of small bowel obstruction in adults

Adult intussusception due to Meckel's diverticulum is an uncommon cause of intestinal obstruction. However, the surgeon should still be suspicious of this condition since the non specific symptoms and the rarity of it make a preoperative diagnosis uncertain. Considering the secondary nature of adult intussusception and the necessity of early surgical intervention to avoid morbidity and mortality, we report one case of intussusception due to Meckel's diverticulum in an adult. A 22-year-old patient was admitted to our hospital with vomiting and abdominal pain. The abdomen was hard with tenderness. We diagnosed an acute small bowel obstruction and performed emergency surgery. The intra operative findings were distention of the small bowel and intussusception of ileus due to an inverted Meckel's diverticulum located 70 cm from the ileocecal valve. 30 cm ischemic loop was identified. A segmental small bowel resection and hand-sewn anastomosis was performed. Histopathology distinguished Meckel's diverticulum measuring 5 cm x 3.5 cm x 1 cm and no signs of malignancy

Histopathologic characteristics and short-term outcomes of colorectal cancer in young Tunisian patients: one center’s experience

Introduction: Colorectal carcinoma (CRC) is generally a disease of persons older than 40 years. Concerning younger patients, controversies still exist regarding features and prognosis of CRC. We performed this study to characterise CRC in young patients (≤40 years) as well as to evaluate short-term outcome in comparison with older patients (>40 years) with CRC. Methods: Clinical and histopathological parameters of 40 patients aged 40 years or less were compared with 240 patients aged more than 40 years. Results: In young patients, the minority suffered from hereditary cancer syndromes (0.4%). Furthermore, up to 87% of young patients denied any cancers in their families. Compared with older patients, young patients had more mucinous adenocarcinomas (32.5% vs. 11.5%; p=0.02), more venous invasion (p=0.021), more perineural invasion (p=0.028). For grading (p=0.42), lymphatic invasion (p=0.17) and tumor sites (p=0.46), no significant differences between young and older patients were found. Young patients had less post operative morbidity (p=0.039), less post operative mortality (0.029). Young and older patients had the same overall 1-year survival rates (p=0.24), and the same cancer-related 1-year survival rates (p=0.1). Conclusion: Tunisian patients present with colorectal cancer at a more advanced stage of the disease at younger ages compared to developed countries. The early detection of CRC followed by a sufficient oncologic treatment is crucial regardless of age. It is mandatory for all patients with suspicious symptoms to undergo early adequate diagnoses. Pan African Medical Journal 2012; 12:1

Unpublished Mediterranean and Black Sea records of marine alien, cryptogenic, and neonative species

To enrich spatio-temporal information on the distribution of alien, cryptogenic, and neonative species in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, a collective effort by 173 marine scientists was made to provide unpublished records and make them open access to the scientific community. Through this effort, we collected and harmonized a dataset of 12,649 records. It includes 247 taxa, of which 217 are Animalia, 25 Plantae and 5 Chromista, from 23 countries surrounding the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. Chordata was the most abundant taxonomic group, followed by Arthropoda, Mollusca, and Annelida. In terms of species records, Siganus luridus, Siganus rivulatus, Saurida lessepsianus, Pterois miles, Upeneus moluccensis, Charybdis (Archias) longicollis, and Caulerpa cylindracea were the most numerous. The temporal distribution of the records ranges from 1973 to 2022, with 44% of the records in 2020–2021. Lethrinus borbonicus is reported for the first time in the Mediterranean Sea, while Pomatoschistus quagga, Caulerpa cylindracea, Grateloupia turuturu, and Misophria pallida are first records for the Black Sea; Kapraunia schneideri is recorded for the second time in the Mediterranean and for the first time in Israel; Prionospio depauperata and Pseudonereis anomala are reported for the first time from the Sea of Marmara. Many first country records are also included, namely: Amathia verticillata (Montenegro), Ampithoe valida (Italy), Antithamnion amphigeneum (Greece), Clavelina oblonga (Tunisia and Slovenia), Dendostrea cf. folium (Syria), Epinephelus fasciatus (Tunisia), Ganonema farinosum (Montenegro), Macrorhynchia philippina (Tunisia), Marenzelleria neglecta (Romania), Paratapes textilis (Tunisia), and Botrylloides diegensis (Tunisia).peer-reviewe