The Impacts of Foreign Portfolio Flows and Monetary Policy Responses on Stock Markets by Considering COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Turkey

Abstract This study researches the impacts of foreign portfolio flows (proxied by foreign investors' retention share) and monetary policy responses (proxied by the repurchase interest rate) on Turkey's stock market index taking the COVID-19 pandemic into consideration. A volatility index, credit default swap spreads, and foreign exchange rates are used as control variables, with a daily dataset between January 2, 2017, and October 20, 2020. After examining the stationarity and nonlinearity characteristics of the variables, we applied a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and then conducted a Markov switching regression (MSR) for a robustness check. The results reveal that both foreign portfolio flows and monetary responses have an important effect on the index, and foreign portfolio flows have a higher effect than monetary responses. Accordingly, the results obtained from the NARDL and MSR models are robust and consistent

The tourism-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey

In the economic growth literature, the contribution of tourism to economic development has attracted great attention due to its significant roles as a source of foreign exchange earnings, creation of employment opportunities and an important source of public revenues in many countries. In this paper, we aim to analyse the empirical relationship between economic growth and tourism by employing different econometric techniques. First, we employed the Bound test approach developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001, Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326) in order to investigate the co-integration relationship between economic growth and tourism. Second, we used the Granger causality analysis for the 1998–2011 period and found evidence of a long-run uni-directional causality running from tourism to economic growth, but not vice versa. Our findings show that the Turkish case supports the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). Third, the autoregressive-distributed lag approach was employed in order to investigate the long-term and short-term static relationship between tourism and economic growth. The results show that tourism has a positive effect on gross domestic product and economic growth both in the long-term and short-term. Finally, the effect of tourism on economic growth was also investigated dynamically by employing the Kalman filter method. The findings of this method support the TLGH for Turkey

The impact of trade openness on global carbon dioxide emissions: Evidence from the top ten emitters among developing countries

This study aims to analyze the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, trade openness, real income and energy consumption in the top ten CO2 emitters among the developing countries; namely China, India, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, Thailand and Malaysia over the period of 1971-2011. In addition, the possible presence of the EKC hypothesis is investigated for the analyzed countries. The Zivot-Andrews unit root test with structural break, the bounds testing for cointegration in the presence of structural break and the VECM Granger causality method are employed. The empirical results indicate that (i) the analyzed variables are co-integrated for Thailand, Turkey, India, Brazil, China, Indonesia and Korea, (ii) real income, energy consumption and trade openness are the main determinants of carbon emissions in the long run, (iii) there exists a number of causal relations between the analyzed variables, (iv) the EKC hypothesis is validated for Turkey, India, China and Korea. Robust policy implications can be derived from this study since the estimated models pass several diagnostic and stability tests

The impact of trade openness on global carbon dioxide emissions: Evidence from the top ten emitters among developing countries

This study aims to analyze the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, trade openness, real income and energy consumption in the top ten CO2 emitters among the developing countries; namely China, India, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, Thailand and Malaysia over the period of 1971-2011. In addition, the possible presence of the EKC hypothesis is investigated for the analyzed countries. The Zivot-Andrews unit root test with structural break, the bounds testing for cointegration in the presence of structural break and the VECM Granger causality method are employed. The empirical results indicate that (i) the analyzed variables are co-integrated for Thailand, Turkey, India, Brazil, China, Indonesia and Korea, (ii) real income, energy consumption and trade openness are the main determinants of carbon emissions in the long run, (iii) there exists a number of causal relations between the analyzed variables, (iv) the EKC hypothesis is validated for Turkey, India, China and Korea. Robust policy implications can be derived from this study since the estimated models pass several diagnostic and stability tests

TÜRKİYE’DE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLE ELEKTRİK TÜKETİMİ İLİŞKİSİ: SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI

This paper investigates relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption for Turkey over the period 1974-2004. As economic growth and electricity consumption variables used in empirical analysis was different order of integration ( I(0) and I(1) ) we employed bound test approach. We found cointegration relationship between the variables and in short run there is positive relationship between the variables however in long run there is negative relationship

Panel cointegration: Long-run relationship between internet, electricity consumption and economic growth. Evidence from OECD countries

The linkage between electricity consumption, internet demand and economic growth is aimed to investigate in this study in 35 OECD countries for the period 1993-2014. Panel cointegration, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality tests were performed to capture the potential long-run and causal linkages among the three variables. The findings from the FMOLS and DOLS models indicate a positive linkage between electricity, internet demand and economic growth in the long-run. Results from the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality confirm feedback causality between electricity consumption and internet demand and unilateral causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption

The Stationarity Properties of the Industrial Production Index

Both policy makers and scholars frequently use monthly industrial production index series in their econometric predictions. In this paper, the stationarity properties of level, logarithm, seasonally adjusted level and seasonally adjusted logarithm of the Turkish industrial production index (TUIK) are investigated using both traditional unit root tests and unit root tests that have more power in small samples. Additionally, unit root tests that determine structural breaks endogenously are also employed. The traditional and relatively more recent tests seem to contradict each other Furthermore, there are structural breaks in the series. Therefore, model choices based on traditional unit root tests and policy implications derived from such models may not be correct. This study can help studies that employ the Turkish industrial production index in assessing the stationarity properties of the index

Exchange Rate Volatility Models: The Turkish Case

Exchange rate volatility models: The Turkish case This study aims to model the exchange rate volatility for Turkish economy with use of ARCH, GARCH, and SWARCH models for the period of July 2001-May 2010 with daily export-weighted exchange rate data. We find that SWARCH is the best exchange rate volatility model compared to the traditional models on the basis of the econometric selection criteria, AIC and SC. It is also found that this model accurately predicts the actual exchange rate volatility 1, 4, 8, 15 and 30 days (periods) ahead. The volatility predictions obtained from SWARCH coincides exactly with the actual exchange rate volatilities observed in Turkish economy, including the extreme exchange rate volatility in the year 2008 of global financial crisis. As a result, the study proves that SWARCH model has a better volatility predictions compare to the traditional models. It will be a particularly useful model to apply for policy makers who like to see the exchange rate fluctuations right on time and even periods ahead in their macroeconometric modeling of the Turkish Economy.Wo

The impact of trade openness on global carbon dioxide emissions: Evidence from the top ten emitters among developing countries

This study aims to analyze the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, trade openness, real income and energy consumption in the top ten CO2 emitters among the developing countries; namely China, India, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, Thailand and Malaysia over the period of 1971-2011. In addition, the possible presence of the EKC hypothesis is investigated for the analyzed countries. The Zivot-Andrews unit root test with structural break, the bounds testing for cointegration in the presence of structural break and the VECM Granger causality method are employed. The empirical results indicate that (i) the analyzed variables are co-integrated for Thailand, Turkey, India, Brazil, China, Indonesia and Korea, (ii) real income, energy consumption and trade openness are the main determinants of carbon emissions in the long run, (iii) there exists a number of causal relations between the analyzed variables, (iv) the EKC hypothesis is validated for Turkey, India, China and Korea. Robust policy implications can be derived from this study since the estimated models pass several diagnostic and stability tests. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Dissolution of an Empire: Insights from the stanbul Bourse and the Ottoman War Bond

During the transformation period of the Ottoman Empire leading to the Republic of Turkey, many conflicts took place between 1918 and 1923. These conflicts interrupted the servicing of the Ottoman war bond. The reimbursement likelihood of this bond was related to the outcomes of First World War and the hostilities. This paper analyses the impacts of First World War and hostilities on the risk assessments regarding the Ottoman war debt, using manually collected data on the price of the Ottoman war bond traded at the stanbul bourse between 1918 and 1925. The empirical results imply that the defeat of the Bulgarian army and the peace offer of Austria-Hungary were associated with the increasing premium demanded by investors of the bond. The victories of the Turkish National Movement and the peace offer of the Allies to end the hostilities by 1922 positively affected the likelihood of the servicing of the debt