Quantification of Rotavirus Diarrheal Risk Due to Hydroclimatic Extremes Over South Asia: Prospects of Satellite‐Based Observations in Detecting Outbreaks

Rotavirus is the most common cause of diarrheal disease among children under 5. Especially in South Asia, rotavirus remains the leading cause of mortality in children due to diarrhea. As climatic extremes and safe water availability significantly influence diarrheal disease impacts in human populations, hydroclimatic information can be a potential tool for disease preparedness. In this study, we conducted a multivariate temporal and spatial assessment of 34 climate indices calculated from ground and satellite Earth observations to examine the role of temperature and rainfall extremes on the seasonality of rotavirus transmission in Bangladesh. We extracted rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Measurement and temperature data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensors to validate the analyses and explore the potential of a satellite‐based seasonal forecasting model. Our analyses found that the number of rainy days and nighttime temperature range from 16°C to 21°C are particularly influential on the winter transmission cycle of rotavirus. The lower number of wet days with suitable cold temperatures for an extended time accelerates the onset and intensity of the outbreaks. Temporal analysis over Dhaka also suggested that water logging during monsoon precipitation influences rotavirus outbreaks during a summer transmission cycle. The proposed model shows lag components, which allowed us to forecast the disease outbreaks 1 to 2 months in advance. The satellite data‐driven forecasts also effectively captured the increased vulnerability of dry‐cold regions of the country, compared to the wet‐warm regions

Estimation of flow regime for a spatially varied Himalayan watershed using improved multi-site calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model

Due to the influential role in global climate, the hydrologic modeling of the watersheds in Himalayan mountain range is critically important for the socioeconomy and livelihood of surrounding regions. As these watersheds usually have snow-driven hydrology and abrupt changes in orography, the challenges in hydrologic model are acknowledged in scientific community. In this study, we addressed this challenge by implementing an improved multivariable and multi-site approach to calibration and validation of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for determining its ability to mimic flow regime of the watershed. In the improved multi-site approach, the model was successfully calibrated using 1980–1985 streamflow data and validated using 1990–1995 data for the daily time steps. Combination of different performance metrics indicates that the improved method increased the efficiency of daily prediction of Karnali River discharge. We utilized 30 years of streamflow data from four discharge stations to explore the changes in flow pattern at the decadal scales. Groundwater flow decreased in monsoon season compared to other season where the changes in flow regimes were insignificant within the decadal scale. The proposed calibration method can be used to any other large mountainous watershed to improve the estimation of the hydrologic processes

Climate projections and extremes in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 model outputs over the Bengal delta: a quartile based bias-correction approach with new gridded data

In the era of global warning, the insight of future climate and their changing extremes is critical for climate-vulnerable regions of the world. In this study, we have conducted a robust assessment of Regional Climate Model (RCM) results in a monsoon-dominated region within the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the latest Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. We have applied an advanced bias correction approach to five RCM simulations in order to project future climate and associated extremes over Bangladesh, a critically climate-vulnerable country with a complex monsoon system. We have also generated a new gridded product that performed better in capturing observed climatic extremes than existing products. The bias-correction approach provided a notable improvement in capturing the precipitation extremes as well as mean climate. The majority of projected multi-model RCMs indicate an increase of rainfall, where one model shows contrary results during the 2080s (2071–2100) era. The multi-model mean shows that nighttime temperatures will increase much faster than daytime temperatures and the average annual temperatures are projected to be as hot as present-day summer temperatures. The expected increase of precipitation and temperature over the hilly areas are higher compared to other parts of the country. Overall, the projected extremities of future rainfall are more variable than temperature. According to the majority of the models, the number of the heavy rainy days will increase in future years. The severity of summer-day temperatures will be alarming, especially over hilly regions, where winters are relatively warm. The projected rise of both precipitation and temperature extremes over the intense rainfall-prone northeastern region of the country creates a possibility of devastating flash floods with harmful impacts on agriculture. Moreover, the effect of bias-correction, as presented in probable changes of both bias-corrected and uncorrected extremes, can be considered in future policy making

Climate Services for Resilient Development in South Asia Annual Report: January to December 2019

Climate Services for Resilient Development (CSRD) is a global partnership that connects climate science, data streams, decision support tools, and training to decision-makers in developing countries. CSRD addresses the climate challenges faced by smallholder farmers in South Asia. The partnership is led by the United States Government and supported by the UK Government Department for International Development (DFID), the UK Meteorological Office, ESRI, Google, the Inter-American Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the American Red Cross. The CSRD in South Asia initiative3 ran from November 2016 to December 2019 and was led by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and funded by USAID. The consortium worked to increase resilience to climate change in South Asia by creating and making available timely and useful climate data, information, tools and services. These activities aligned with the Global Framework for Climate Services and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). In South Asia, the CSRD consortium focused primarily on Bangladesh (in alignment with Objective 1 as described above), with a secondary emphasis on Nepal and India (supporting Objective 2), and overall capacity development and awareness raising efforts across countries (Objective 3). To improve the usefulness and agricultural relevance of climate information and weather forecasts, the consortium developed strong science partnerships, and moved research into action and impact. The overarching goal was to develop and sustain the capacity development of agricultural climate services in the region. Throughout its duration, the consortium benefited from valuable inputs and guidance from USAID and its multi-partner CSRD Steering Committee

PENGANTAR MANAJEMEN DAN BISNIS

Semua orang bisa menjalankan bisnis, apabila memiliki modal, maka mereka bisa memulai usahanya. Dalam bisnis ada banyak komponen yang diatur agar mencapai tujuan bersama dan menjulang keuntungan. Bisnis bisa berjalan dengan baik jika di dalamnya terdapat sistem yang berjalan dengan baik. Umumnya sistem itu berhubungan dengan manajemen bisnis yang baik diikuti dengan inovasi yang terus dilakukan tanpa henti. Istilah Manajemen merupakan sebuah proses merencanakan, mengorganisasi sampai mengendalikan kegiatan apa pun termasuk usaha. Hal ini dilakukan untuk mencapai tujuan bersama secara efektif dan efisien melalui pemanfaatan sumber daya. Manajemen bisnis bisa berjalan dengan baik jika beberapa poin ini di bawah ini diterapkan: Memahami jenis usaha yang dilakukan sejak awal, Melakukan analisis produk dan persaingan dagang yang akan terjadi, Melakukan pemasaran yang tepat, Selalu melakukan pengecekan pada laporan keuangan, Selalu melakukan evaluasi pada produk dan SDM pada jangka waktu tertentu. Dengan menerapkan manajemen bisnis berbagai sektor bisa berjalan dengan baik dan akan meminimalisir terjadinya kesalahan-kesalahan berbagai sektor. Oleh karena itu buku ini hadir kehadapan sidang pembaca sebagai bagian dari upaya diskusi sekaligus dalam rangka melengkapi khazanah keilmuan dibidang manajemen bisnis, sehingga buku ini sangat cocok untuk dijadikan bahan acuan bagi kalangan intelektual dilingkungan perguruan tinggi ataupun praktisi yang berkecimpung langsung dibidang manajemen bisnis

Titik Putih

Buku yang tersaji ke hadapan para pembaca ini menyajikan fenomena yang terjadi saat virus Covid-19 menyerang dalam dunia Pendidikan yang mengahruskan para pengajar dan pendidik melakukan pengajaran daring. Banyak suka duka yang ingin disampaikan oleh penulis kepada pembaca agar menyampaikan kondisi selama pandemi. Para penulis menuangkan kerangka pikir pengajaran berdasarkan pengalaman mereka dalam pembelajaran di Era 4.0 dan selama masa pandemic

COMMUNITY SERVICE IN THE MIDST OF THE COVID-19

Basic health services in Indonesia have not placed adolescent reproductive health as a priority in health services, so it is necessary to carry out health education as an effort to increase knowledge and attitudes among adolescents. The aim of the community service: providing reproductive health education to adolescents, cervical cancer, and anemia in SMA Negeri 1 Kutalimbaru. Education is carried out so that adolescents maintain their reproductive health and are able to prepare themselves as future mothers. Reproductive health education is carried out from August to October 2020 while still implementing health protocols to prevent the transmission of COVID-19. Stages of activity: field observations, identification of partner problems, offering solutions, planning and implementing health education. At the beginning and at the end of the activity, a pre test and post test were carried out. The results obtained: reproductive health in adolescents has a good knowledge of 73%, about 71% good category cervical cancer, and about 75% good knowledge about anemia. The attitude about reproductive health in adolescents is good 73%, about cervical cancer is good 72% and about anemia is good 74%. Reproductive health education activities for adolescents through pocket books to increase the knowledge and attitudes of adolescents in SMA Negeri 1 Kutalimbaru, Deliserdang Regency, an increase occurred. Reproductive health education activities for adolescents need to be carried out continuously by activating School Health Enterprises (UKS) in collaboration with the working area Puskesma