Repeatability of Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Radiomics: A Multi-Centre Multi-Vendor Test-Retest Study

Aims: To evaluate the repeatability of cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) radiomics features on test-retest scanning using a multi-centre multi-vendor dataset with a varied case-mix. Methods and Results: The sample included 54 test-retest studies from the VOLUMES resource (thevolumesresource.com). Images were segmented according to a pre-defined protocol to select three regions of interest (ROI) in end-diastole and end-systole: right ventricle, left ventricle (LV), and LV myocardium. We extracted radiomics shape features from all three ROIs and, additionally, first-order and texture features from the LV myocardium. Overall, 280 features were derived per study. For each feature, we calculated intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC), within-subject coefficient of variation, and mean relative difference. We ranked robustness of features according to mean ICC stratified by feature category, ROI, and cardiac phase, demonstrating a wide range of repeatability. There were features with good and excellent repeatability (ICC ≥ 0.75) within all feature categories and ROIs. A high proportion of first-order and texture features had excellent repeatability (ICC ≥ 0.90), however, these categories also contained features with the poorest repeatability (ICC < 0.50). Conclusion: CMR radiomic features have a wide range of repeatability. This paper is intended as a reference for future researchers to guide selection of the most robust features for clinical CMR radiomics models. Further work in larger and richer datasets is needed to further define the technical performance and clinical utility of CMR radiomics

Dynamic modeling of mean-reverting spreads for statistical arbitrage

Statistical arbitrage strategies, such as pairs trading and its generalizations, rely on the construction of mean-reverting spreads enjoying a certain degree of predictability. Gaussian linear state-space processes have recently been proposed as a model for such spreads under the assumption that the observed process is a noisy realization of some hidden states. Real-time estimation of the unobserved spread process can reveal temporary market inefficiencies which can then be exploited to generate excess returns. Building on previous work, we embrace the state-space framework for modeling spread processes and extend this methodology along three different directions. First, we introduce time-dependency in the model parameters, which allows for quick adaptation to changes in the data generating process. Second, we provide an on-line estimation algorithm that can be constantly run in real-time. Being computationally fast, the algorithm is particularly suitable for building aggressive trading strategies based on high-frequency data and may be used as a monitoring device for mean-reversion. Finally, our framework naturally provides informative uncertainty measures of all the estimated parameters. Experimental results based on Monte Carlo simulations and historical equity data are discussed, including a co-integration relationship involving two exchange-traded funds.Comment: 34 pages, 6 figures. Submitte

Autoregression as a means of assessing the strength of seasonality in a time series

BACKGROUND: The study of the seasonal variation of disease is receiving increasing attention from health researchers. Available statistical tests for seasonality typically indicate the presence or absence of statistically significant seasonality but do not provide a meaningful measure of its strength. METHODS: We propose the coefficient of determination of the autoregressive regression model fitted to the data ([Image: see text]) as a measure for quantifying the strength of the seasonality. The performance of the proposed statistic is assessed through a simulation study and using two data sets known to demonstrate statistically significant seasonality: atrial fibrillation and asthma hospitalizations in Ontario, Canada. RESULTS: The simulation results showed the power of the [Image: see text] in adequately quantifying the strength of the seasonality of the simulated observations for all models. In the atrial fibrillation and asthma datasets, while the statistical tests such as Bartlett's Kolmogorov-Smirnov (BKS) and Fisher's Kappa support statistical evidence of seasonality for both, the [Image: see text] quantifies the strength of that seasonality. Corroborating the visual evidence that asthma is more conspicuously seasonal than atrial fibrillation, the calculated [Image: see text] for atrial fibrillation indicates a weak to moderate seasonality ([Image: see text] = 0.44, 0.28 and 0.45 for both genders, males and females respectively), whereas for asthma, it indicates a strong seasonality ([Image: see text] = 0.82, 0.78 and 0.82 for both genders, male and female respectively). CONCLUSIONS: For the purposes of health services research, evidence of the statistical presence of seasonality is insufficient to determine the etiologic, clinical and policy relevance of findings. Measurement of the strength of the seasonal effect, as can be determined using the [Image: see text] technique, is also important in order to provide a robust sense of seasonality

A hysteretic multiscale formulation for nonlinear dynamic analysis of composite materials

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.A new multiscale finite element formulation is presented for nonlinear dynamic analysis of heterogeneous structures. The proposed multiscale approach utilizes the hysteretic finite element method to model the microstructure. Using the proposed computational scheme, the micro-basis functions, that are used to map the microdisplacement components to the coarse mesh, are only evaluated once and remain constant throughout the analysis procedure. This is accomplished by treating inelasticity at the micro-elemental level through properly defined hysteretic evolution equations. Two types of imposed boundary conditions are considered for the derivation of the multiscale basis functions, namely the linear and periodic boundary conditions. The validity of the proposed formulation as well as its computational efficiency are verified through illustrative numerical experiments

Equator-to-pole temperature differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models

This paper aims to understand the physical processes causing the large spread in the storm track projections of the CMIP5 climate models. In particular, the relationship between the climate change responses of the storm tracks, as measured by the 2–6 day mean sea level pressure variance, and the equator-to-pole temperature differences at upper- and lower-tropospheric levels is investigated. In the southern hemisphere the responses of the upper- and lower-tropospheric temperature differences are correlated across the models and as a result they share similar associations with the storm track responses. There are large regions in which the storm track responses are correlated with the temperature difference responses, and a simple linear regression model based on the temperature differences at either level captures the spatial pattern of the mean storm track response as well explaining between 30 and 60 % of the inter-model variance of the storm track responses. In the northern hemisphere the responses of the two temperature differences are not significantly correlated and their associations with the storm track responses are more complicated. In summer, the responses of the lower-tropospheric temperature differences dominate the inter-model spread of the storm track responses. In winter, the responses of the upper- and lower-temperature differences both play a role. The results suggest that there is potential to reduce the spread in storm track responses by constraining the relative magnitudes of the warming in the tropical and polar regions

Getting “Just Deserts” or Seeing the “Silver Lining”: The Relation between Judgments of Immanent and Ultimate Justice

People can perceive misfortunes as caused by previous bad deeds (immanent justice reasoning) or resulting in ultimate compensation (ultimate justice reasoning). Across two studies, we investigated the relation between these types of justice reasoning and identified the processes (perceptions of deservingness) that underlie them for both others (Study 1) and the self (Study 2). Study 1 demonstrated that observers engaged in more ultimate (vs. immanent) justice reasoning for a "good" victim and greater immanent (vs. ultimate) justice reasoning for a "bad" victim. In Study 2, participants' construals of their bad breaks varied as a function of their self-worth, with greater ultimate (immanent) justice reasoning for participants with higher (lower) self-esteem. Across both studies, perceived deservingness of bad breaks or perceived deservingness of ultimate compensation mediated immanent and ultimate justice reasoning respectively. © 2014 Harvey and Callan

Quasi-Normal Modes of Stars and Black Holes

Perturbations of stars and black holes have been one of the main topics of relativistic astrophysics for the last few decades. They are of particular importance today, because of their relevance to gravitational wave astronomy. In this review we present the theory of quasi-normal modes of compact objects from both the mathematical and astrophysical points of view. The discussion includes perturbations of black holes (Schwarzschild, Reissner-Nordstr\"om, Kerr and Kerr-Newman) and relativistic stars (non-rotating and slowly-rotating). The properties of the various families of quasi-normal modes are described, and numerical techniques for calculating quasi-normal modes reviewed. The successes, as well as the limits, of perturbation theory are presented, and its role in the emerging era of numerical relativity and supercomputers is discussed.Comment: 74 pages, 7 figures, Review article for "Living Reviews in Relativity

Dogs Discriminate Identical Twins

Earlier studies have shown variation among experimental attempts to establish whether human monozygotic twins that are genetically identical also have identical individual scents. In none of the cases were the dogs able to distinguish all the individual scents of monozygotic twins living in the same environment if the scents were presented to them separately. Ten specially trained police German Shepherd dogs of three Czech Republic Police Regional Headquarters were used for scent identification in our study. The dogs were supposed to match scents of two monozygotic pairs (5 and 7 years old) and two dizygotic twin pairs (8 and 13 years old). Scents were collected on cotton squares stored in glass jars. Dog handlers were blind to the experiment details. In each trial (line-up), one scent was used as a starting scent and the dog was then sent to determine if any of the 7 presented glass jars contained a matching scent. Scents of children of similar ages were used as distractors. In the matching procedure, the dogs matched correctly the scent of one twin with the other, as well as two scents collected from every single identical and non-identical twin to prove their efficacy and likewise, the presence of the matching twin scent in any given glass jar. All dogs in all trials distinguished correctly the scents of identical as well as non-identical twins. All dogs similarly matched positively two scents collected from the same individuals. Our findings indicated that specially trained German Shepherd dogs are able to distinguish individual scents of identical twins despite the fact that they live in the same environment, eat the same food and even if the scents are not presented to them simultaneously

A proposal for a coordinated effort for the determination of brainwide neuroanatomical connectivity in model organisms at a mesoscopic scale

In this era of complete genomes, our knowledge of neuroanatomical circuitry remains surprisingly sparse. Such knowledge is however critical both for basic and clinical research into brain function. Here we advocate for a concerted effort to fill this gap, through systematic, experimental mapping of neural circuits at a mesoscopic scale of resolution suitable for comprehensive, brain-wide coverage, using injections of tracers or viral vectors. We detail the scientific and medical rationale and briefly review existing knowledge and experimental techniques. We define a set of desiderata, including brain-wide coverage; validated and extensible experimental techniques suitable for standardization and automation; centralized, open access data repository; compatibility with existing resources, and tractability with current informatics technology. We discuss a hypothetical but tractable plan for mouse, additional efforts for the macaque, and technique development for human. We estimate that the mouse connectivity project could be completed within five years with a comparatively modest budget.Comment: 41 page