45 research outputs found

    Explaining Residential Clustering of Large Families

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    Numerous studies have shown that fertility behavior is spatially clustered. In addition to pure contextual effects, two causal mechanisms could drive this pattern. First, neighbors may influence each other's fertility and second, family size may influence decisions about where to live. In this study we examine these two potential causal mechanisms empirically, using the sex composition of the two eldest children and twin births as instrumental variables (IVs) for having a third child. We estimate how having a third child affects three separate outcomes: the fertility of neighbors; the propensity to move houses; and the likelihood of living in a family-friendly neighborhood with many children. We draw residential and childbearing histories (2000–2018) from Norwegian administrative registers (N ~ 167,000 women). Individuals' neighborhoods are defined using time-varying geocoordinates for place of residence. We identify selective moves as one plausible causal driver of residential clustering of large families. This study contributes to the understanding of fertility and relocation, and to the literature on the social interaction effects of fertility, by testing the relevance of yet another network: that of neighbors.Explaining Residential Clustering of Large FamiliespublishedVersio

    The use of disaggregate data in evaluations of public health interventions: cross-sectional dependence can bias inference

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    Higher availability of administrative data and better infrastructure for electronic surveys allow for large sample sizes in evaluations of national and other large scale policies. Although larger datasets have many advantages, the use of big disaggregate data (e.g., on individuals, households, stores, municipalities) can be challenging in terms of statistical inference. Measurements made at the same point in time may be jointly influenced by contemporaneous factors and produce more variation across time than suggested by the model. This excess variation, or co-movement over time, produce observations that are not truly independent (i.e., cross-sectional dependence). If this dependency is not accounted for, statistical uncertainty will be underestimated, and studies may indicate reform effects where there is none. In the context of interrupted time series (segmented regression), we illustrate the potential for bias in inference when using large disaggregate data, and we describe two simple solutions that are available in standard statistical software

    Kunnskapsstatus om fruktbarhet og samliv i Norge

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    Rapporten gir en oppdatert oversikt over norske studier pÄ omrÄdene fruktbarhet og samliv. Til tross for nedgang de siste Ärene, ligger fruktbarheten i Norge fortsatt hÞyere enn i de fleste andre europeiske land. Kunnskapsstatusen viser at det er en nÊr sammenheng mellom fruktbarheten og en rekke ulike faktorer, som sosioÞkonomiske ressurser. PÄ noen omrÄder er det gjort flere studier enn pÄ andre. Det er blant annet blitt gjort en rekke studier av sammenhengen mellom utdanning og fruktbarhet. De senere Ärene har det ogsÄ vÊrt gjort flere studier av ulike sider av samliv og parforhold og fruktbarhet. Sammenhengen mellom fruktbarhet og familiepolitikk har ogsÄ vÊrt en sentral del av fruktbarhetsforskningen. De fleste nordmenn gifter seg fortsatt, men ekteskapene inngÄs senere i livet. Alderen ved fÞrste samlivsinngÄelse har imidlertid endret seg lite. En viktig grunn til denne utviklingen er Þkningen i samboerskap. De fleste nyere studier av samlivsinngÄelse tar hensyn til denne utviklingen ved Ä inkludere samboerskap, og det er i den senere tid gjort en rekke studier av forskjeller mellom samboerskap og ekteskap. Forskningen pÄ samlivsomrÄdet har etter hvert ogsÄ inkludert personer med innvandrerbakgrunn og likekjÞnnede par. Men fortsatt finnes det fÄ studier av samboeres partnervalg og brudd blant samboerpar.Prosjektet er finansiert av Barne-, likestillings- og inkluderingsdepartementet

    Earnings and first birth probability among Norwegian men and women 1995-2010

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    <b>Background</b>: The relationship between earnings and fertility and how it varies with context are among the core investigations of demography. Cross-country comparisons show that when parenting and employment are in conflict, this relationship is less positive for women. We lack knowledge of how this relationship is shaped by context for men and how it varies with contextual changes over time rather than between countries. <b>Objective</b>: I investigate how the relationship between earnings and first-birth probability changes over time for men and women, in a period when efforts in parenting and paid work become increasingly similar across sex. <b>Methods</b>: Discrete-time hazard regressions are applied to highly accurate data from Norwegian population registers. Through estimation of separate models for each of the years 1995 through 2010, I assess whether the correlation between yearly earnings and the first birth probabilities changed over period time. The correlation is estimated net of observable confounders, such as educational enrolment and attainment and region of birth. <b>Results</b>: The correlation between earnings and fertility has become substantially more positive over time for women, and also somewhat more positive among men. <b>Conclusions</b>: Though the potential opportunity cost of fathering increases, there is no evidence of a weaker correlation between earnings and first birth probability for men. I suggest that decreasing opportunity costs of motherhood as well as strategic timing of fertility are both plausible explanations for the increasingly positive correlation among women

    Union histories of dissolution: What can they say about childlessness?

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    This study investigates how the association between union dissolution and childlessness depends on life course context. Data on union histories and fertility are taken from the Norwegian GGS. To observe union histories up to age 45, I include men and women born 1927–1962. I further condition on having experienced at least one union dissolution before age 45, giving a study sample of 883 men and 1110 women. To capture the life course context of union dissolutions, I group union histories similar in timing, occurrence and ordering of events using sequence analysis. Eight well-clustered groups of union histories are distinguished. Four consist of life courses dominated by a long first or second union and display low levels of childlessness. The highest proportion childlessness is found among individuals who entered a first union late and dissolved it quickly. Groups characterised by long spells alone after a dissolution or many short unions also displayed a high proportion of childlessness. In contrast to findings from the USA, neither union trajectories nor their link with childlessness varies by educational attainment

    Explaining residential clustering of fertility

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    Numerous studies have shown that fertility behavior is spatially clustered. In addition to pure context effects, two causal mechanisms could drive this pattern. First, neighbors may influence each other’s fertility behavior, and second, household fertility intentions and behavior may influence residential decisions. This study provides an empirical examination of these two potential causal mechanisms using the sex composition of the two firstborn children and twin births as instrumental variables (IVs) for having a third child. We measure effects of the third child on three separate outcomes: mothers’ propensity to move, characteristics of their final neighborhood, and the fertility of their neighbors. Residential and childbearing histories for the years 2000-2018 are drawn from Norwegian administrative registers (N ~ 167,000 women). Individual neighborhoods are defined using timevarying geo-coordinates on place of residence. We identify selective moves as one plausible causal driver of the residential clustering of fertility. The effects are relatively small, though statistically significant. This suggests that the residential clustering of fertility is also driven by factors that we effectively control for in our design – most importantly self-selection based on preferences for a family-oriented life style. Because of the difficulty to measure social interaction effects among neighbors we are reluctant to say that they do not exist, even though we do not identify them. As such, we contribute to the understanding of fertility and relocation, but also to the literature on social interaction effects in fertility by testing the relevance of yet another network, i.e. that of neighbors

    Effects of policy on fertility: A systematic review of (quasi)experiments

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    This work was funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Children and Families, the Ministry of Health and Care Services, the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs and the Ministry of Education and Research through the “Determinants of falling fertility” project, and supported by the Norwegian Research Council through its Centres of Excellence funding scheme (#262700) and the FAMGEN project (#236926).This paper describes the results of a systematic review of the literature of policy effects on fertility after 1970 in Europe, USA, Canada and Australia. Empirical studies were selected through extensive systematic searches, with subsequent literature list screening. Inclusion was conditional on implementing an experimental or quasi-experimental design. 57 published papers and recent working papers were included, covering the topics of parental leave, childcare, health services, universal child transfers and welfare reforms. Childcare and universal transfers seem to have the most positive effects on fertility. Few effects were found for parental leave, but this could be linked to these reforms not lending themselves to efficient (quasi)experimental evaluation. Withdrawing cash transfers to families through welfare reforms has limited fertility effects. Subsidizing assisted reproductive technologies show some promise in increasing birth rates of women above age 35

    Does health influence fertility?

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    This work is jointly financed by the Ministry of Health and Care Services, Ministry of Children and Families, Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs and the Ministry of Education and Research in Norway, through a grant to the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. Hart’s contribution is partly supported by the Research Council of Norway through its Centres of Excellence funding scheme, project number 262700.Poor health may constrain women’s capacity for active leisure, including family life and childrearing, for participation in the labor market and potentially affect preferences. Still, health remains remarkably understudied as a fertility determinant. We explore the association between health and fertility, using uptake of doctor-certified sickness absences and long-term health-related benefits as proxies for health. We examine whether compositional changes in health distributions and/or changes in the health-fertility association have contributed to the distinct fall in the total fertility rate in Norway since 2009. We use nationwide registry data on women aged 16-45 from 2004-2018. We analyse first, second and third births separately, and use annual observations with lagged timevarying covariates for education, sickness absence and long-term benefits. Income, employment and partnership status are also included in some subanalyses. Long-term benefit uptake is negatively associated with fertility, and the association weakens over time. In addition, such uptake is relatively rare, but increases slightly over time. The use of sickness absence is positively associated with fertility, and the association strengthens over time. Sickness absence uptake is common but decreases over time. It is thus unlikely that changes in women’s health and/or changes in the health-fertility association can help explain the observed decline in fertility observed after 2009. However, if the decrease in sickness absence uptake reflects a stronger labor market preference among women in fertile ages, it might help explain parts of the observed decline. Overall, the decline in fertility is most pronounced for healthy women. Health as a fertility determinant warrants further research, from other countries and with other proxies for health
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