Contributions to web-based simulation software for sustainable energy systems

Motiviert durch den Bedarf an praxisorientierten Studien für die Energiewende befasst sich diese Dissertation in zehn Artikeln mit der Entwicklung, Evaluierung, Validieren, Anwendung und Abstraktion des multidimensionalen Entscheidungsunterstützungssystems NESSI. NESSI ist eine frei zugängliche, webbasierte Software zur Simulation von nachhaltigen Energiesystemen für Gebäude und Nachbarschaften. Mithilfe eines adaptierten Design Science Forschungsansatzes, wird NESSI in dieser Dissertation in fünf aufeinander folgenden Designzyklen speziell für Akteure in Entwicklungsländern weiterentwickelt. Für jeden Designzyklus wurden Anforderungen durch systematische Marktrecherchen, Literaturanalysen, Anwendertests und Experten- und Expertinneninterviews abgeleitet. Nach umfangreichen iterativen Programmierarbeiten wird jeder Designzyklus demonstriert, evaluiert und validiert, indem die Software in verschiedenen Kontexten in Entwicklungsländern eingesetzt wird. Weitere Methoden zur Verbesserung von NESSI waren Feedback von Gutachtern sowie Präsentationen auf nationalen und internationalen Veranstaltungen. Zur weiteren Demonstration von NESSI werden in zwei Artikeln umfangreiche Fallstudien in Thailand und Kolumbien beschrieben. Durch diese Entwicklungsarbeiten entstand ein zusätzlicher Artikel in Kooperation mit einem internationalen, interkontinentalen Projektteam, in dem die Weiterentwicklung des in NESSI integrierten Lastprofilgenerator RAMP dargelegt wird. In einem weiteren Artikel wird die Funktionsweise von NESSI vorgestellt, um dessen Vertrauenswürdigkeit und Transparenz zu fördern sowie globale Anwendungsmöglichkeiten zu verdeutlichen. Der letzte Artikel befasst sich mit entstehender Designtheorie. Ausgehend von NESSIs Entwicklungsprozess, werden sieben fundierte Designprinzipien für Entscheidungsunterstützungssystemen zur Unterstützung der gesellschaftlichen Nachhaltigkeitstransformation formuliert. Während des gesamten Entwicklungsprozesses hat sich gezeigt, dass das Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem NESSI die Energiewende bottom-up unterstützt, Stakeholder informiert und Menschen befähigt. Es werden jedoch auch einige Limitationen des Tools aufgrund von Simplifikationen aufgezeigt. Darüber hinaus werden die Herausforderungen bei der Entwicklung der Software erläutert, insbesondere in Bezug auf die Definition der Stakeholder, Forschung aus der Ferne, die Komplexität und Vertrauenswürdigkeit des Tools sowie die Bedeutung von Stakeholder-Netzwerken. Akteure und Forschende werden eingeladen, NESSI weiter zu verbessern, den Ansatz zu hinterfragen und gemeinsam ein verfeinertes Modell zu entwickeln, um die Energiewende bottom-up zu fördern und die Entwicklung gesellschaftlicher Nachhaltigkeit zu unterstützen.Motivated by the calls for more solution-oriented studies that contribute to the energy transition, this dissertation comprises of ten articles describing the development, evaluation, validation, application, and abstraction of the multi-criteria decision support system NESSI. NESSI is an openaccess, web-based software simulating energy systems for buildings and neighborhoods. Using an adapted design science research approach, NESSI is further developed in five consecutive design cycles specifically for actors in developing countries. For each design cycle, requirements were derived through systematic market research, literature analyses, user tests, and expert interviews. After extensive iterative programming works, each design cycle is demonstrated, evaluated, and validated by applying the software to suitable contexts in developing countries. Further methods to improve and validate NESSI included reviewer feedback as well as presentations at national and international events. Two articles describe extensive case studies situated in Thailand and Colombia to further demonstrate NESSI. This work led to a joint article, co-authored with an international project team, which presents the load profile generator RAMP and its integration into NESSI. Moreover, the functionality of the tool is introduced in a separate article to serve as a manual, to support transparency, trust, and credibility as well as to highlight the tool’s global applicability. In the last article, nascent design theory is derived by formulating seven grounded design principles with multiple design features for the wider application of bottom-up societal sustainability transformation. Throughout this development process, it was proven that the decision support system NESSI supports bottom-up energy transition, educates stakeholders, and empowers people. Nevertheless, several limitations regarding the tool’s restrictiveness are highlighted. Challenges during software development are elaborated on, especially in terms of the stakeholder definition, the remote research approach, the tool’s complexity and credibility as well as importance of stakeholder networks. Stakeholders and researchers are invited to further improve NESSI, challenge th

A comparison of short-term and long-term air pollution exposure associations with mortality in two cohorts in Scotland

Air pollution–mortality risk estimates are generally larger at longer-term, compared with short-term, exposure time scales. We compared associations between short-term exposure to black smoke (BS) and mortality with long-term exposure–mortality associations in cohort participants and with short-term exposure–mortality associations in the general population from which the cohorts were selected. We assessed short-to-medium–term exposure–mortality associations in the Renfrew–Paisley and Collaborative cohorts (using nested case–control data sets), and compared them with long-term exposure–mortality associations (using a multilevel spatiotemporal exposure model and survival analyses) and short-to-medium–term exposure–mortality associations in the general population (using time-series analyses). For the Renfrew–Paisley cohort (15,331 participants), BS exposure–mortality associations were observed in nested case–control analyses that accounted for spatial variations in pollution exposure and individual-level risk factors. These cohort-based associations were consistently greater than associations estimated in time-series analyses using a single monitoring site to represent general population exposure {e.g., 1.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.1, 3.4%] vs. 0.2% (95% CI: 0.0, 0.4%) increases in mortality associated with 10-μg/m3 increases in 3-day lag BS, respectively}. Exposure–mortality associations were of larger magnitude for longer exposure periods [e.g., 3.4% (95% CI: –0.7, 7.7%) and 0.9% (95% CI: 0.3, 1.5%) increases in all-cause mortality associated with 10-μg/m3 increases in 31-day BS in case–control and time-series analyses, respectively; and 10% (95% CI: 4, 17%) increase in all-cause mortality associated with a 10-μg/m3 increase in geometic mean BS for 1970–1979, in survival analysis]. After adjusting for individual-level exposure and potential confounders, short-term exposure–mortality associations in cohort participants were of greater magnitude than in comparable general population time-series study analyses. However, short-term exposure–mortality associations were substantially lower than equivalent long-term associations, which is consistent with the possibility of larger, more persistent cumulative effects from long-term exposures

Fostering Energy Resilience in the Rural Thai Power System—A Case Study in Nakhon Phanom

With rising electricity demand, heavy reliance on imports, and recent economic downturns due to the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain bottlenecks, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Thailand is suffering severely from energy resilience risks. The government has therefore set a goal of decentralizing energy production through small-scale distributed renewable energy systems. To support their design and the planning process, we simulate multiple scenarios with wind turbines, photovoltaic systems, and battery storage for a model community in rural Nakhon Phanom, Thailand. Using the software NESSI4D, we evaluate and discuss their impact on energy resilience by considering environmental sustainability, economic attractiveness, and independence from the central power grid. To fill the gap of missing data on energy demand, we synthesize high-resolution load profiles from the Thailand Vietnam Socio-Economic Panel. We conclude that distributed photovoltaic systems with additional battery storage are only suitable to promote energy resilience if the government provides appropriate financial incentives. Considering temporal variations and local conditions, as well as a participatory decision-making process, are crucial for the long-term success of energy projects. Our advice to decision-makers is to design policies and regulatory support that are aligned with the preferences and needs of target communities

Evaluation of a Binary Classification Approach to Detect Herbage Scarcity Based on Behavioral Responses of Grazing Dairy Cows

In precision grazing, pasture allocation decisions are made continuously to ensure demand-based feed allowance and efficient grassland utilization. The aim of this study was to evaluate existing prediction models that determine feed scarcity based on changes in dairy cow behavior. During a practice-oriented experiment, two groups of 10 cows each grazed separate paddocks in half-days in six six-day grazing cycles. The allocated grazing areas provided 20% less feed than the total dry matter requirement of the animals for each entire grazing cycle. All cows were equipped with noseband sensors and pedometers to record their head, jaw, and leg activity. Eight behavioral variables were used to classify herbage sufficiency or scarcity using a generalized linear model and a random forest model. Both predictions were compared to two individual-animal and day-specific reference indicators for feed scarcity: reduced milk yields and rumen fill scores that undercut normal variation. The predictive performance of the models was low. The two behavioral variables “daily rumination chews” and “bite frequency” were confirmed as suitable predictors, the latter being particularly sensitive when new feed allocation is present in the grazing set-up within 24 h. Important aspects were identified to be considered if the modeling approach is to be followed up.Peer Reviewe

HIV-related sexual risk behaviour between 1996 and 2008, according to age, among men who have sex with men (Scotland)

Objective: To examine changes in the proportions of those reporting 2+ unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) partners in the previous 12 months among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Scotland between 1996 and 2008. Differences according to age group were also examined. Methods: Logistic regression was used with data from eight cross-sectional anonymous, self-report surveys in commercial gay venues in Glasgow and Edinburgh (N=10 223). Data were stratified according to survey and age group (<25 years vs ≥25 years). Results: The percentage of 2+ UAI partners reported in the previous 12 months increased significantly between 2000 and 2002, adjusted for age group. When the surveys were divided into two time periods (1996-2000 and 2002-2008), no significant differences were found within each time period in the percentage of 2+ UAI partners reported (adjusted for age group). However, a significant increase was found when the aggregated figures for 2002-2008 were compared with those for 1996-2000. At the aggregate level, those aged <25 years were significantly more likely than those aged ≥25 years to report 2+ UAI partners in the previous 12 months (adjusted for survey). Conclusions: HIV-related sexual risk behaviour did not change significantly between 2002 and 2008 among MSM in Scotland, after the increases noted between 2000 and 2002. A significant minority of MSM continue to engage in relatively high levels of sexual risk, and younger generations appear to be at particular risk. This represents a public health concern and highlights the need for targeted age-specific interventions

A grounded theory analysis of the experience of therapy in the context of negative change

Negative change occurring during psychotherapy is relatively underresearched and current theories take little account of social context. Eight clients and four therapists were interviewed about their therapy experience when reliable score deterioration on an outcome measure was observed, with the aim of generating a Grounded Theory model of negative change. The emerging model identified three major themes: a context of adversity, the therapeutic experience, and help withdrawn (within the context of positive outcomes). Difficulties included wanting therapy to provide more advice, talking about distressing issues, relationship difficulties, ambivalence, and a wish for support instead of change. Client context merits increased attention. Changes in outcome measures used, more diverse supervision models, training to use outcome measures constructively, and sensitive, routine analysis of negative change are indicated. Increased availability of therapies able to address clients’ interpersonal and social context and a wider choice of therapy type would allow interventions to better fit the individual in context

miRTargetLink—miRNAs, Genes and Interaction Networks

Information on miRNA targeting genes is growing rapidly. For high-throughput experiments, but also for targeted analyses of few genes or miRNAs, easy analysis with concise representation of results facilitates the work of life scientists. We developed miRTargetLink, a tool for automating respective analysis procedures that are frequently applied. Input of the web-based solution is either a single gene or single miRNA, but also sets of genes or miRNAs, can be entered. Validated and predicted targets are extracted from databases and an interaction network is presented. Users can select whether predicted targets, experimentally validated targets with strong or weak evidence, or combinations of those are considered. Central genes or miRNAs are highlighted and users can navigate through the network interactively. To discover the most relevant biochemical processes influenced by the target network, gene set analysis and miRNA set analysis are integrated. As a showcase for miRTargetLink, we analyze targets of five cardiac miRNAs. miRTargetLink is freely available without restrictions at www.ccb.uni-saarland.de/mirtargetlink