A comparison of short-term and long-term air pollution exposure associations with mortality in two cohorts in Scotland

Air pollution–mortality risk estimates are generally larger at longer-term, compared with short-term, exposure time scales. We compared associations between short-term exposure to black smoke (BS) and mortality with long-term exposure–mortality associations in cohort participants and with short-term exposure–mortality associations in the general population from which the cohorts were selected. We assessed short-to-medium–term exposure–mortality associations in the Renfrew–Paisley and Collaborative cohorts (using nested case–control data sets), and compared them with long-term exposure–mortality associations (using a multilevel spatiotemporal exposure model and survival analyses) and short-to-medium–term exposure–mortality associations in the general population (using time-series analyses). For the Renfrew–Paisley cohort (15,331 participants), BS exposure–mortality associations were observed in nested case–control analyses that accounted for spatial variations in pollution exposure and individual-level risk factors. These cohort-based associations were consistently greater than associations estimated in time-series analyses using a single monitoring site to represent general population exposure {e.g., 1.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.1, 3.4%] vs. 0.2% (95% CI: 0.0, 0.4%) increases in mortality associated with 10-μg/m3 increases in 3-day lag BS, respectively}. Exposure–mortality associations were of larger magnitude for longer exposure periods [e.g., 3.4% (95% CI: –0.7, 7.7%) and 0.9% (95% CI: 0.3, 1.5%) increases in all-cause mortality associated with 10-μg/m3 increases in 31-day BS in case–control and time-series analyses, respectively; and 10% (95% CI: 4, 17%) increase in all-cause mortality associated with a 10-μg/m3 increase in geometic mean BS for 1970–1979, in survival analysis]. After adjusting for individual-level exposure and potential confounders, short-term exposure–mortality associations in cohort participants were of greater magnitude than in comparable general population time-series study analyses. However, short-term exposure–mortality associations were substantially lower than equivalent long-term associations, which is consistent with the possibility of larger, more persistent cumulative effects from long-term exposures

Fostering Energy Resilience in the Rural Thai Power System—A Case Study in Nakhon Phanom

With rising electricity demand, heavy reliance on imports, and recent economic downturns due to the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain bottlenecks, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Thailand is suffering severely from energy resilience risks. The government has therefore set a goal of decentralizing energy production through small-scale distributed renewable energy systems. To support their design and the planning process, we simulate multiple scenarios with wind turbines, photovoltaic systems, and battery storage for a model community in rural Nakhon Phanom, Thailand. Using the software NESSI4D, we evaluate and discuss their impact on energy resilience by considering environmental sustainability, economic attractiveness, and independence from the central power grid. To fill the gap of missing data on energy demand, we synthesize high-resolution load profiles from the Thailand Vietnam Socio-Economic Panel. We conclude that distributed photovoltaic systems with additional battery storage are only suitable to promote energy resilience if the government provides appropriate financial incentives. Considering temporal variations and local conditions, as well as a participatory decision-making process, are crucial for the long-term success of energy projects. Our advice to decision-makers is to design policies and regulatory support that are aligned with the preferences and needs of target communities

Evaluation of a Binary Classification Approach to Detect Herbage Scarcity Based on Behavioral Responses of Grazing Dairy Cows

In precision grazing, pasture allocation decisions are made continuously to ensure demand-based feed allowance and efficient grassland utilization. The aim of this study was to evaluate existing prediction models that determine feed scarcity based on changes in dairy cow behavior. During a practice-oriented experiment, two groups of 10 cows each grazed separate paddocks in half-days in six six-day grazing cycles. The allocated grazing areas provided 20% less feed than the total dry matter requirement of the animals for each entire grazing cycle. All cows were equipped with noseband sensors and pedometers to record their head, jaw, and leg activity. Eight behavioral variables were used to classify herbage sufficiency or scarcity using a generalized linear model and a random forest model. Both predictions were compared to two individual-animal and day-specific reference indicators for feed scarcity: reduced milk yields and rumen fill scores that undercut normal variation. The predictive performance of the models was low. The two behavioral variables “daily rumination chews” and “bite frequency” were confirmed as suitable predictors, the latter being particularly sensitive when new feed allocation is present in the grazing set-up within 24 h. Important aspects were identified to be considered if the modeling approach is to be followed up.Peer Reviewe

A grounded theory analysis of the experience of therapy in the context of negative change

Negative change occurring during psychotherapy is relatively underresearched and current theories take little account of social context. Eight clients and four therapists were interviewed about their therapy experience when reliable score deterioration on an outcome measure was observed, with the aim of generating a Grounded Theory model of negative change. The emerging model identified three major themes: a context of adversity, the therapeutic experience, and help withdrawn (within the context of positive outcomes). Difficulties included wanting therapy to provide more advice, talking about distressing issues, relationship difficulties, ambivalence, and a wish for support instead of change. Client context merits increased attention. Changes in outcome measures used, more diverse supervision models, training to use outcome measures constructively, and sensitive, routine analysis of negative change are indicated. Increased availability of therapies able to address clients’ interpersonal and social context and a wider choice of therapy type would allow interventions to better fit the individual in context

HIV-related sexual risk behaviour between 1996 and 2008, according to age, among men who have sex with men (Scotland)

Objective: To examine changes in the proportions of those reporting 2+ unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) partners in the previous 12 months among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Scotland between 1996 and 2008. Differences according to age group were also examined. Methods: Logistic regression was used with data from eight cross-sectional anonymous, self-report surveys in commercial gay venues in Glasgow and Edinburgh (N=10 223). Data were stratified according to survey and age group (<25 years vs ≥25 years). Results: The percentage of 2+ UAI partners reported in the previous 12 months increased significantly between 2000 and 2002, adjusted for age group. When the surveys were divided into two time periods (1996-2000 and 2002-2008), no significant differences were found within each time period in the percentage of 2+ UAI partners reported (adjusted for age group). However, a significant increase was found when the aggregated figures for 2002-2008 were compared with those for 1996-2000. At the aggregate level, those aged <25 years were significantly more likely than those aged ≥25 years to report 2+ UAI partners in the previous 12 months (adjusted for survey). Conclusions: HIV-related sexual risk behaviour did not change significantly between 2002 and 2008 among MSM in Scotland, after the increases noted between 2000 and 2002. A significant minority of MSM continue to engage in relatively high levels of sexual risk, and younger generations appear to be at particular risk. This represents a public health concern and highlights the need for targeted age-specific interventions

miRTargetLink—miRNAs, Genes and Interaction Networks

Information on miRNA targeting genes is growing rapidly. For high-throughput experiments, but also for targeted analyses of few genes or miRNAs, easy analysis with concise representation of results facilitates the work of life scientists. We developed miRTargetLink, a tool for automating respective analysis procedures that are frequently applied. Input of the web-based solution is either a single gene or single miRNA, but also sets of genes or miRNAs, can be entered. Validated and predicted targets are extracted from databases and an interaction network is presented. Users can select whether predicted targets, experimentally validated targets with strong or weak evidence, or combinations of those are considered. Central genes or miRNAs are highlighted and users can navigate through the network interactively. To discover the most relevant biochemical processes influenced by the target network, gene set analysis and miRNA set analysis are integrated. As a showcase for miRTargetLink, we analyze targets of five cardiac miRNAs. miRTargetLink is freely available without restrictions at www.ccb.uni-saarland.de/mirtargetlink

Multi-theoretic approaches to understanding the science classroom

Multi-camera on-site video technology and post-lesson video stimulated interviews were used in a purposefully inclusive research design to generate a complex data set amenable to parallel analyses from several complementary theoretical perspectives. The symposium reports the results of parallel analyses employing positioning theory, systemic functional linguistics, distributed cognition and representational analysis of the same nine-lesson sequence in a single science classroom during the teaching of a single topic: States of Matter. Without contesting the coherence and value of a well-constructed mono-theoretic research study, the argument is made that all such studies present an inevitably partial account of a setting as complex as the science classroom: privileging some aspects and ignoring others. In this symposium, the first presentation examined the rationale for multi-theoretic research designs, highlighting the dangers of the circular amplification of those constructs predetermined by the choice of theory and outlining the intended&nbsp;benefits of multi-theoretic designs that offer less partial accounts of classroom practice. The second and third presentations reported the results of analyses of the same lesson sequence on the topic &ldquo;states of matter&rdquo; using the analytical perspectives of positioning theory and systemic functional linguistics. The final presentation reported the comparative analysis of student learning of density over the same three lessons from distributed cognition and representational perspectives. The research design promoted a form of reciprocal interrogation, where the analyses provided insights into classroom practice and the comparison of the analyses facilitated the reflexive interrogation of the selected theories, while also optimally anticipating the subsequent synthesis of the interpretive accounts generated by each analysis of the same setting for the purpose of informing instructional advocacy