A new method for monitoring global volcanic activity

The ERTS Data Collection System makes it feasible for the first time to monitor the level of activity at widely separated volcanoes and to relay these data rapidly to one central office for analysis. While prediction of specific eruptions is still an evasive goal, early warning of a reawakening of quiescent volcanoes is now a distinct possibility. A prototypical global volcano surveillance system was established under the ERTS program. Instruments were installed in cooperation with local scientists on 15 volcanoes in Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, California, Iceland, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. The sensors include 19 seismic event counters that count four different sizes of earthquakes and six biaxial borehole tiltmeters that measure ground tilt with a resolution of 1 microradian. Only seismic and tilt data are collected because these have been shown in the past to indicate most reliably the level of volcano activity at many different volcanoes. Furthermore, these parameters can be measured relatively easily with new instrumentation

Research Note:<br>Derivation of temperature lapse rates in semi-arid south-eastern Arizona

International audienceEcological and hydrological modelling at the regional scale requires distributed information on weather variables, and temperature is important among these. In an area of basin and range topography with a wide range of elevations, such as south-eastern Arizona, measurements are usually available only at a relatively small number of locations and elevations, and temperatures elsewhere must be estimated from atmospheric lapse rate. This paper derives the lapse rates to estimate maximum, minimum and mean daily temperatures from elevation. Lapse rates were calculated using air temperatures at 2 m collected during 2002 at 18 locations across south-eastern Arizona, with elevations from 779 to 2512 m. The lapse rate predicted for the minimum temperature was lower than the mean environmental lapse rate (MELR), i.e. 6 K km?1, whereas those predicted for the mean and maximum daily temperature were very similar to the MELR. Lapse rates were also derived from radiosonde data at 00 and 12 UTC (5 pm and 5 am local time, respectively). The lapse rates calculated from radiosonde data were greater than those from the 2 m measurements, presumably because the effect of the surface was less. Given temperatures measured at Tucson airport, temperatures at the other sites were predicted using the different estimates of lapse rates. The best predictions of temperatures used the locally predicted lapse rates. In the case of maximum and mean temperature, using the MELR also resulted in accurate predictions. Keywords: near surface lapse rates, semi-arid climate, mean minimum and maximum temperatures, basin and range topograph

Burst avalanches in solvable models of fibrous materials

We review limiting models for fracture in bundles of fibers, with statistically distributed thresholds for breakdown of individual fibers. During the breakdown process, avalanches consisting of simultaneous rupture of several fibers occur, and the distribution $D(\Delta)$ of the magnitude $\Delta$ of such avalanches is the central characteristics in our analysis. For a bundle of parallel fibers two limiting models of load sharing are studied and contrasted: the global model in which the load carried by a bursting fiber is equally distributed among the surviving members, and the local model in which the nearest surviving neighbors take up the load. For the global model we investigate in particular the conditions on the threshold distribution which would lead to anomalous behavior, i.e. deviations from the asymptotics $D(\Delta) \sim \Delta^{-5/2}$, known to be the generic behavior. For the local model no universal power-law asymptotics exists, but we show for a particular threshold distribution how the avalanche distribution can nevertheless be explicitly calculated in the large-bundle limit.Comment: 28 pages, RevTeX, 3 Postscript figure

Development and evaluation of a prototype global volcano surveillance system utilizing the ERTS-1 satellite data collection system

There are no author-identified significant results in this report

Characterization of Hypertension Risk Factors at the Committee on Temporary Shelter

Introduction: The health of homeless populations is at risk due to a high prevalence of undiagnosed hypertension (HTN) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The interaction of housing and socioeconomic status with the risk factors for HTN and CVD remains unclear. Prevention of HTN through a healthy diet, exercise, adequate sleep, and avoidance of tobacco has been well described, but financial limitations and competing priorities for shelter and food make blood pressure (BP) control difficult for this population. By characterizing the risk factors and awareness of hypertension within the homeless population at the Committee on Temporary Shelter Daystation (COTS) in Burlington, Vermont, we may be able to identify promising avenues for therapeutic intervention.https://scholarworks.uvm.edu/comphp_gallery/1226/thumbnail.jp

Bounds for the time to failure of hierarchical systems of fracture

For years limited Monte Carlo simulations have led to the suspicion that the time to failure of hierarchically organized load-transfer models of fracture is non-zero for sets of infinite size. This fact could have a profound significance in engineering practice and also in geophysics. Here, we develop an exact algebraic iterative method to compute the successive time intervals for individual breaking in systems of height $n$ in terms of the information calculated in the previous height $n-1$. As a byproduct of this method, rigorous lower and higher bounds for the time to failure of very large systems are easily obtained. The asymptotic behavior of the resulting lower bound leads to the evidence that the above mentioned suspicion is actually true.Comment: Final version. To appear in Phys. Rev. E, Feb 199

Traveling Wave Fronts and Localized Traveling Wave Convection in Binary Fluid Mixtures

Nonlinear fronts between spatially extended traveling wave convection (TW) and quiescent fluid and spatially localized traveling waves (LTWs) are investigated in quantitative detail in the bistable regime of binary fluid mixtures heated from below. A finite-difference method is used to solve the full hydrodynamic field equations in a vertical cross section of the layer perpendicular to the convection roll axes. Results are presented for ethanol-water parameters with several strongly negative separation ratios where TW solutions bifurcate subcritically. Fronts and LTWs are compared with each other and similarities and differences are elucidated. Phase propagation out of the quiescent fluid into the convective structure entails a unique selection of the latter while fronts and interfaces where the phase moves into the quiescent state behave differently. Interpretations of various experimental observations are suggested.Comment: 46 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Menstrual and reproductive factors in relation to ovarian cancer risk

We assessed menstrual and reproductive factors in relation to ovarian cancer risk in a large, population-based, case–control study. 563 cases in Massachusetts and New Hampshire were ascertained from hospitals and statewide tumour registries; control women (n= 523) were selected through random digit dialing and matched to case women by age and telephone sampling unit. We used multivariate logistic regression to evaluate factors in relation to risk of ovarian cancer and the major tumour histologic subtypes. Ovarian cancer risk was reduced among parous women, relative to nulliparous women (OR = 0.4; 95% CI = 0.3−0.6). Among parous women, higher parity (P= 0.0006), increased age at first (P= 0.03) or last (P= 0.05) birth, and time since last birth (P= 0.04) were associated with reduced risk. Early pregnancy losses, abortions, and stillbirths were unrelated to risk, but preterm, term, and twin births were protective. Risk was lower among women who had breast-fed, relative to those who had not (OR = 0.7; 95% CI = 0.5–1.0), but the average duration of breast-feeding per child was unrelated to risk (P for trend = 0.21). Age at menarche and age at menopause were unrelated to risk overall, although increasing menarcheal age was protective among premenopausal women (P= 0.02). Menstrual cycle characteristics and symptoms were generally unrelated to risk, although cycle-related insomnia was associated with decreased risk (OR = 0.5; 95% CI = 0.3–0.8). We found no association between the type of sanitary product used during menstruation and ovarian cancer risk. In analyses by histologic subtype, reproductive and menstrual factors had most effect on risk of endometrioid/clear cell tumours, and least influential with regard to risk of mucinous tumours. Overall, our findings offer some support to current hypotheses of ovarian pathogenesis, and show aetiologic differences among the tumour subtypes. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.co

Probabilistic Approach to Time-Dependent Load-Transfer Models of Fracture

A probabilistic method for solving time-dependent load-transfer models of fracture is developed. It is applicable to any rule of load redistribution, i.e, local, hierarchical, etc. In the new method, the fluctuations are generated during the breaking process (annealed randomness) while in the usual method, the random lifetimes are fixed at the beginning (quenched disorder). Both approaches are equivalent.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures. To appear in Phys.Rev.

The prevention of lower urinary tract symptoms (PLUS) research consortium: A transdisciplinary approach toward promoting bladder health and preventing lower urinary tract symptoms in women across the life course

Lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) are highly prevalent in women, and are expected to impose a growing burden to individuals and society as the population ages. The predominance of research related to LUTS has focused on underlying pathology, disease mechanisms, or the efficacy of treatments for women with LUTS. Although this research has been vital for helping to reduce or ameliorate LUTS conditions, it has done little to prevent the onset of LUTS. Health promotion and prevention require an expansion of scientific inquiry beyond the traditional paradigm of studying disease mechanisms and treatment to the creation of an evidence base to support recommendations for bladder health promotion and, in turn, prevention of LUTS. The National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK) introduced the concept of prevention as an important priority for women's urologic research as a prelude to supporting the formation of the Prevention of Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms (PLUS) research consortium. In this article, we introduce the PLUS research consortium to the scientific community; share the innovative paradigms by which the consortium operates; and describe its unique research mission: to identify factors that promote bladder health across the life course and prevent the onset of LUTS in girls and women