A dynamical trichotomy for structured populations experiencing positive density-dependence in stochastic environments

Positive density-dependence occurs when individuals experience increased survivorship, growth, or reproduction with increased population densities. Mechanisms leading to these positive relationships include mate limitation, saturating predation risk, and cooperative breeding and foraging. Individuals within these populations may differ in age, size, or geographic location and thereby structure these populations. Here, I study structured population models accounting for positive density-dependence and environmental stochasticity i.e. random fluctuations in the demographic rates of the population. Under an accessibility assumption (roughly, stochastic fluctuations can lead to populations getting small and large), these models are shown to exhibit a dynamical trichotomy: (i) for all initial conditions, the population goes asymptotically extinct with probability one, (ii) for all positive initial conditions, the population persists and asymptotically exhibits unbounded growth, and (iii) for all positive initial conditions, there is a positive probability of asymptotic extinction and a complementary positive probability of unbounded growth. The main results are illustrated with applications to spatially structured populations with an Allee effect and age-structured populations experiencing mate limitation

How does reviewing the evidence change veterinary surgeons' beliefs regarding the treatment of ovine footrot? A quantitative and qualitative study

Footrot is a widespread, infectious cause of lameness in sheep, with major economic and welfare costs. The aims of this research were: (i) to quantify how veterinary surgeons’ beliefs regarding the efficacy of two treatments for footrot changed following a review of the evidence (ii) to obtain a consensus opinion following group discussions (iii) to capture complementary qualitative data to place their beliefs within a broader clinical context. Grounded in a Bayesian statistical framework, probabilistic elicitation (roulette method) was used to quantify the beliefs of eleven veterinary surgeons during two one-day workshops. There was considerable heterogeneity in veterinary surgeons’ beliefs before they listened to a review of the evidence. After hearing the evidence, seven participants quantifiably changed their beliefs. In particular, two participants who initially believed that foot trimming with topical oxytetracycline was the better treatment, changed to entirely favour systemic and topical oxytetracycline instead. The results suggest that a substantial amount of the variation in beliefs related to differences in veterinary surgeons’ knowledge of the evidence. Although considerable differences in opinion still remained after the evidence review, with several participants having non-overlapping 95% credible intervals, both groups did achieve a consensus opinion. Two key findings from the qualitative data were: (i) veterinary surgeons believed that farmers are unlikely to actively seek advice on lameness, suggesting a proactive veterinary approach is required (ii) more attention could be given to improving the way in which veterinary advice is delivered to farmers. In summary this study has: (i) demonstrated a practical method for probabilistically quantifying how veterinary surgeons’ beliefs change (ii) revealed that the evidence that currently exists is capable of changing veterinary opinion (iii) suggested that improved transfer of research knowledge into veterinary practice is needed (iv) identified some potential obstacles to the implementation of veterinary advice by farmers

Influence of packing density and stress on the dynamic response of granular materials

Laboratory geophysics tests including bender elements and acoustic emission measure the speed of propagation of stress or sound waves in granular materials to derive elastic stiffness parameters. This contribution builds on earlier studies to assess whether the received signal characteristics can provide additional information about either the material’s behaviour or the nature of the material itself. Specifically it considers the maximum frequency that the material can transmit; it also assesses whether there is a simple link between the spectrum of the received signal and the natural frequencies of the sample. Discrete element method (DEM) simulations of planar compression wave propagation were performed to generate the data for the study. Restricting consideration to uniform (monodisperse) spheres, the material fabric was varied by considering face-centred cubic lattice packings as well as random configurations with different packing densities. Supplemental analyses, in addition to the DEM simulations, were used to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the system dynamics. The assembly stiffness and mass matrices were extracted from the DEM model and these data were used in an eigenmode analysis that provided significant insight into the observed overall dynamic response. The close agreement of the wave velocities estimated using eigenmode analysis with the DEM results confirms that DEM wave propagation simulations can reliably be used to extract material stiffness data. The data show that increasing either stress or density allows higher frequencies to propagate through the media, but the low-pass wavelength is a function of packing density rather than stress level. Prior research which had hypothesised that there is a simple link between the spectrum of the received signal and the natural sample frequencies was not substantiated

Estimating equations for biomarker based exposure estimation under non-steady-state conditions

Unrealistic steady-state assumptions are often used to estimate toxicant exposure rates from biomarkers. A biomarker may instead be modeled as a weighted sum of historical time-varying exposures. Estimating equations are derived for a zero-inflated gamma distribution for daily exposures with a known exposure frequency. Simulation studies suggest that the estimating equations can provide accurate estimates of exposure magnitude at any reasonable sample size, and reasonable estimates of the exposure variance at larger sample sizes

Impacts of 4D BIM on Construction Project Performance

A significant proportion of construction projects are failing to achieve their deadline finish dates. This advocate for solutions that could address the root causes of time impacting risks, leading to the use of 4D BIM for project planning. This study investigates the impacts of 4D BIM on construction projects. An exploratory sequential mixed method research was conducted to initially explore the topic via interviews and literature review, and, subsequently, the themes derived were put into questionnaires to elicit expert knowledge on a wider industry scale. The data were analysed using thematic analysis, reliability analysis, Kruskal-Wallis test and factor analysis. Across the objectives around the impacts of 4D BIM on project reliability, monitoring and diagnosis, the findings presented eight key ways the 4D BIM support project performance. Examples of component factors that were raised was planning efficiency to enhance planner output, assessment and directive with a better comparison of planned and actual progress, and thorough/comprehensive risk reflection to cover wide ranges of issues. Upon further reflection, the finding highlighted the issues of the lack of shared responsibility outside of the planner and BIM coordinator, severe lack of understanding and training regarding 4D BIM and complexity of carrying out the process effectively

The Molecular Clockwork of the Fire Ant Solenopsis invicta

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What traits are carried on mobile genetic elements, and why?

Although similar to any other organism, prokaryotes can transfer genes vertically from mother cell to daughter cell, they can also exchange certain genes horizontally. Genes can move within and between genomes at fast rates because of mobile genetic elements (MGEs). Although mobile elements are fundamentally self-interested entities, and thus replicate for their own gain, they frequently carry genes beneficial for their hosts and/or the neighbours of their hosts. Many genes that are carried by mobile elements code for traits that are expressed outside of the cell. Such traits are involved in bacterial sociality, such as the production of public goods, which benefit a cell's neighbours, or the production of bacteriocins, which harm a cell's neighbours. In this study we review the patterns that are emerging in the types of genes carried by mobile elements, and discuss the evolutionary and ecological conditions under which mobile elements evolve to carry their peculiar mix of parasitic, beneficial and cooperative genes