An Experiment on Prediction Markets in Science

Prediction markets are powerful forecasting tools. They have the potential to aggregate private information, to generate and disseminate a consensus among the market participants, and to provide incentives for information acquisition. These market functionalities can be very valuable for scientific research. Here, we report an experiment that examines the compatibility of prediction markets with the current practice of scientific publication. We investigated three settings. In the first setting, different pieces of information were disclosed to the public during the experiment. In the second setting, participants received private information. In the third setting, each piece of information was private at first, but was subsequently disclosed to the public. An automated, subsidizing market maker provided additional incentives for trading and mitigated liquidity problems. We find that the third setting combines the advantages of the first and second settings. Market performance was as good as in the setting with public information, and better than in the setting with private information. In contrast to the first setting, participants could benefit from information advantages. Thus the publication of information does not detract from the functionality of prediction markets. We conclude that for integrating prediction markets into the practice of scientific research it is of advantage to use subsidizing market makers, and to keep markets aligned with current publication practice

Denitrification and nitrous oxide emissions from riparian forests soils exposed to prolonged nitrogen runoff

Compared to upland forests, riparian forest soils have greater potential to remove nitrate (NO3) from agricultural run-off through denitrification. It is unclear, however, whether prolonged exposure of riparian soils to nitrogen (N) loading will affect the rate of denitrification and its end products. This research assesses the rate of denitrification and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from riparian forest soils exposed to prolonged nutrient run-off from plant nurseries and compares these to similar forest soils not exposed to nutrient run-off. Nursery run-off also contains high levels of phosphate (PO4). Since there are conflicting reports on the impact of PO4 on the activity of denitrifying microbes, the impact of PO4 on such activity was also investigated. Bulk and intact soil cores were collected from N-exposed and non-exposed forests to determine denitrification and N2O emission rates, whereas denitrification potential was determined using soil slurries. Compared to the non-amended treatment, denitrification rate increased 2.7- and 3.4-fold when soil cores collected from both N-exposed and non-exposed sites were amended with 30 and 60 μg NO3-N g-1 soil, respectively. Net N2O emissions were 1.5 and 1.7 times higher from the N-exposed sites compared to the non-exposed sites at 30 and 60 μg NO3-N g-1 soil amendment rates, respectively. Similarly, denitrification potential increased 17 times in response to addition of 15 μg NO3-N g-1 in soil slurries. The addition of PO4 (5 μg PO4–P g-1) to soil slurries and intact cores did not affect denitrification rates. These observations suggest that prolonged N loading did not affect the denitrification potential of the riparian forest soils; however, it did result in higher N2O emissions compared to emission rates from non-exposed forests

Evidence for folate-salvage reactions in plants

Folates in vivo undergo oxidative cleavage, giving pterin and p-aminobenzoylglutamate (pABAGlu) moieties. These breakdown products are excreted in animals, but their fate is unclear in microorganisms and unknown in plants. As indirect evidence from this and previous studies strongly suggests that plants can have high folate-breakdown rates (approximately 10% per day), salvage of the cleavage products seems likely. Four sets of observations support this possibility. First, cleavage products do not normally accumulate: pools of pABAGlu (including its polyglutamyl forms) are equivalent to, at most, 4-14% of typical total folate pools in Arabidopsis thaliana, Lycopersicon esculentum and Pisum sativum tissues. Pools of the pterin oxidation end-product pterin-6-carboxylate are, likewise, fairly small (3-37%) relative to total folate pools. Second, little pABAGlu built up in A. thaliana plantlets when net folate breakdown was induced by blocking folate synthesis with sulfanilamide. Third, A. thaliana and L. esculentum tissues readily converted supplied breakdown products to folate synthesis precursors: pABAGlu was hydrolysed to p-aminobenzoate and glutamate, and dihydropterin-6-aldehyde was reduced to 6-hydroxymethyldihydropterin. Fourth, both these reactions were detected in vitro; the reduction used NADPH as cofactor. An alternative salvage route for pABAGlu, direct reincorporation into dihydrofolate via the action of dihydropteroate synthase, appears implausible from the properties of this enzyme. We conclude that plants are excellent organisms in which to explore the biochemistry of folate salvage

Neural Network Parameterizations of Electromagnetic Nucleon Form Factors

The electromagnetic nucleon form-factors data are studied with artificial feed forward neural networks. As a result the unbiased model-independent form-factor parametrizations are evaluated together with uncertainties. The Bayesian approach for the neural networks is adapted for chi2 error-like function and applied to the data analysis. The sequence of the feed forward neural networks with one hidden layer of units is considered. The given neural network represents a particular form-factor parametrization. The so-called evidence (the measure of how much the data favor given statistical model) is computed with the Bayesian framework and it is used to determine the best form factor parametrization.Comment: The revised version is divided into 4 sections. The discussion of the prior assumptions is added. The manuscript contains 4 new figures and 2 new tables (32 pages, 15 figures, 2 tables

Examining sustainability in a hospital setting: Case of smoking cessation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Ottawa Model of Smoking Cessation (OMSC) is a hospital-based smoking cessation program that is expanding across Canada. While the short-term effectiveness of hospital cessation programs has been documented, less is known about long-term sustainability. The purpose of this exploratory study was to understand how hospitals using the OMSC were addressing sustainability and determine if there were critical factors or issues that should be addressed as the program expanded.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Six hospitals that differed on OMSC program activities (identify and document smokers, advise quitting, provide medication, and offer follow-up) were intentionally selected, and two key informants per hospital were interviewed using a semi-structured interview guide. Key informants were asked to reflect on the initial decision to implement the OMSC, the current implementation process, and perceived sustainability of the program. Qualitative analysis of the interview transcripts was conducted and themes related to problem definition, stakeholder influence, and program features emerged.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sustainability was operationalized as higher performance of OMSC activities than at baseline. Factors identified in the literature as important for sustainability, such as program design, differences in implementation, organizational characteristics, and the community environment did not explain differences in program sustainability. Instead, key informants identified factors that reflected the interaction between how the health problem was defined by stakeholders, how priorities and concerns were addressed, features of the program itself, and fit within the hospital context and resources as being influential to the sustainability of the program.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Applying a sustainability model to a hospital smoking cessation program allowed for an examination of how decisions made during implementation may impact sustainability. Examining these factors during implementation may provide insight into issues affecting program sustainability, and foster development of a sustainability plan. Based on this study, we suggest that sustainability plans should focus on enhancing interactions between the health problem, program features, and stakeholder influence.</p

Experimental loophole-free violation of a Bell inequality using entangled electron spins separated by 1.3 km

For more than 80 years, the counterintuitive predictions of quantum theory have stimulated debate about the nature of reality. In his seminal work, John Bell proved that no theory of nature that obeys locality and realism can reproduce all the predictions of quantum theory. Bell showed that in any local realist theory the correlations between distant measurements satisfy an inequality and, moreover, that this inequality can be violated according to quantum theory. This provided a recipe for experimental tests of the fundamental principles underlying the laws of nature. In the past decades, numerous ingenious Bell inequality tests have been reported. However, because of experimental limitations, all experiments to date required additional assumptions to obtain a contradiction with local realism, resulting in loopholes. Here we report on a Bell experiment that is free of any such additional assumption and thus directly tests the principles underlying Bell's inequality. We employ an event-ready scheme that enables the generation of high-fidelity entanglement between distant electron spins. Efficient spin readout avoids the fair sampling assumption (detection loophole), while the use of fast random basis selection and readout combined with a spatial separation of 1.3 km ensure the required locality conditions. We perform 245 trials testing the CHSH-Bell inequality $S \leq 2$ and find $S = 2.42 \pm 0.20$. A null hypothesis test yields a probability of $p = 0.039$ that a local-realist model for space-like separated sites produces data with a violation at least as large as observed, even when allowing for memory in the devices. This result rules out large classes of local realist theories, and paves the way for implementing device-independent quantum-secure communication and randomness certification.Comment: Raw data will be made available after publicatio

Gauge symmetry and W-algebra in higher derivative systems

The problem of gauge symmetry in higher derivative Lagrangian systems is discussed from a Hamiltonian point of view. The number of independent gauge parameters is shown to be in general {\it{less}} than the number of independent primary first class constraints, thereby distinguishing it from conventional first order systems. Different models have been considered as illustrative examples. In particular we show a direct connection between the gauge symmetry and the W-algebra for the rigid relativistic particle.Comment: 1+22 pages, 1 figure, LaTeX, v2; title changed, considerably expanded version with new results, to appear in JHE

Ovarian cancer symptom awareness and anticipated delayed presentation in a population sample

Background: While ovarian cancer is recognised as having identifiable early symptoms, understanding of the key determinants of symptom awareness and early presentation is limited. A population-based survey of ovarian cancer awareness and anticipated delayed presentation with symptoms was conducted as part of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP). Methods: Women aged over 50 years were recruited using random probability sampling (n = 1043). Computer-assisted telephone interviews were used to administer measures including ovarian cancer symptom recognition, anticipated time to presentation with ovarian symptoms, health beliefs (perceived risk, perceived benefits/barriers to early presentation, confidence in symptom detection, ovarian cancer worry), and demographic variables. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the contribution of independent variables to anticipated presentation (categorised as < 3 weeks or ≥ 3 weeks). Results: The most well-recognised symptoms of ovarian cancer were post-menopausal bleeding (87.4%), and persistent pelvic (79.0%) and abdominal (85.0%) pain. Symptoms associated with eating difficulties and changes in bladder/bowel habits were recognised by less than half the sample. Lower symptom awareness was significantly associated with older age (p ≤ 0.001), being single (p ≤ 0.001), lower education (p ≤ 0.01), and lack of personal experience of ovarian cancer (p ≤ 0.01). The odds of anticipating a delay in time to presentation of ≥ 3 weeks were significantly increased in women educated to degree level (OR = 2.64, 95% CI 1.61 – 4.33, p ≤ 0.001), women who reported more practical barriers (OR = 1.60, 95% CI 1.34 – 1.91, p ≤ 0.001) and more emotional barriers (OR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.06 – 1.40, p ≤ 0.01), and those less confident in symptom detection (OR = 0.56, 95% CI 0.42 – 0.73, p ≤ 0.001), but not in those who reported lower symptom awareness (OR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.91 – 1.07, p = 0.74). Conclusions: Many symptoms of ovarian cancer are not well-recognised by women in the general population. Evidence-based interventions are needed not only to improve public awareness but also to overcome the barriers to recognising and acting on ovarian symptoms, if delays in presentation are to be minimised

Measurement of the charm structure function F_{2,c)^{γ} of the photon at LEP

The production of charm quarks is studied in deep-inelastic electron–photon scattering using data recorded by the OPAL detector at LEP at nominal e⁺e⁻ centre-of-mass energies from 183 to 209 GeV. The charm quarks have been identified by full reconstruction of charged D* mesons using their decays into D⁰π with the D⁰ observed in two decay modes with charged particle final states, Kπ and Kπππ. The cross-section σ^{D*} for production of charged D* in the reaction e⁺e⁻→e⁺e⁻D*Χ is measured in a restricted kinematical region using two bins in Bjorken x, 0.00140.1 the perturbative QCD calculation at next-to-leading order agrees perfectly with the measured cross-section. For x<0.1 the measured cross-section is 43.8±14.3±6.3±2.8 pb with a next-to-leading order prediction of 17.0⁺²·⁹_₂.₃ pb