Predecessors and successors in random mappings with exchangeable in-degrees

In this paper we characterise the distributions of the number of predecessors and of the number of successors of a given set of vertices, A, in the random mapping model, TnD̂ (see Hansen and Jaworski (2008)), with exchangeable in-degree sequence (D̂1,D̂2,…,D̂n). We show that the exact formulae for these distributions and their expected values can be given in terms of the distributions of simple functions of the in-degree variables D̂1,D̂2,…,D̂n. As an application of these results, we consider two special examples of TnD̂ which correspond to random mappings with preferential and anti-preferential attachment, and determine the exact distributions for the number of predecessors and the number of successors in these cases. We also characterise, for these two special examples, the asymptotic behaviour of the expected numbers of predecessors and successors and interpret these results in terms of the threshold behaviour of epidemic processes on random mapping graphs. The families of discrete distributions obtained in this paper are also of independent interest.</jats:p

Proxying for Expected Returns with Price Earnings Ratios

Long-run regression models using the trailing earnings over price ratio to predict future returns suggested by Campbell and Shiller (1988, 2001) work quite well. However, in this note we show that this variable might result in a downward biased proxy for expected future returns. Instead we suggest using a moving average of the log of 1 plus the earnings price ratio when forecasting long-run returns. The empirical results for the S&P 500 show the superiority of our approach to existing ones.Earnings yield, Stock Return, Forecasting

Long-Run Regressions: Theory and Application to US Asset Markets

The question of long-run predictability in the aggregate US stock market is still unsettled. This is due to the lack of a robust method to judge the statistical significance of long-run regressions under the maintained hypothesis. By developing a spectral theory of long-run regressions with both long-run dependent and independent variables, we demonstrate a version of Engle's (1974) conjecture that asymptotically correct standard errors can be computed by multiplying the ordinary least squares standard errors by the square root of 2/3 times the length of the forecast horizon. We generalize Stambaugh's (1999) bias formula to the long-run regression model proposed in this paper. In addition, we find, that for persistent predictive variables, the OLS estimator in our regression model is more efficient than the estimator in the predictive regressions suggested by Campbell and Shiller (1988) and Hodrick (1992). Application of our method shows thatthe long-run earnings yield significantly predicts up to 69% of the variation in the 10-year S&P 500 real return, and up to 49% of long-run bond returns.Forecasting, stock returns, spectral analysis, Hansen-Hodrick standard errors

Roman Catholic education in England in the nineteenth century, with special reference to William Bernard Ullathorne

Until 1870 education in England was mainly the domain of private, corporate and ecclesiastical enterprise, but in 1870 the English State laid the foundation for a national system of primary and secondary education in the form of the new Elementary Education Act. The Act did not declare education to be a purely secular matter, nor did it allow the Church to be involved in education on a nondenominational basis under State supervision. The Education Act established the so-called "dual system", the division of elementary education into Board and Voluntary schools. One of the most prominent contributors to English Catholic attitudes on education in the second half of the nineteenth century was William Bernard Ullathorne (1806-1889), who was a fierce opponent of the "dual system". After a number of years in Australia as Vicar General, he returned to England in 1840 where he subsequently became Vicar Apostolic of the Western and Central Districts. On the re-establishment of the English Catholic hierarchy of bishops in 1850, Ullathorne was made Bishop of Birmingham. He resided in Birmingham until 1888.It is the aim of this work to determine and explain the core of W. B. Ullathorne's long and extensive influence on the educational debate in the last century. It aims at establishing the ways in which he influenced both the laity and the hierarchy in their concepts of what an ideal Catholic education should be. It also examines Catholic attitudes towards the State's new paramount role as the provider of education. This will be done through an extensive study of Ullathorne's writings and correspondence on education, as well as newspapers and periodicals throughout the years 1850-1889

Economic Considerations of Aggressively Treating the Influenza Virus in Equines

The equine influenza virus is a significant cause of respiratory disease in horses. Even though horses generally recover from this virus, sometimes horses with equine influenza develop secondary bacterial infections which can cause severe pneumonia, thereby increasing recovery times. Owners and managers are faced with the decision of whether to delay preventative treatment in hopes of the horse avoids contracting a secondary bacterial infection (“wait and see”) or aggressively treat the horse with an antibiotic in hopes of avoiding a serious infection (“treat now”). From a decision making standpoint, the economic considerations include explicit treatment costs as well as nonmonetary costs the owner or manager bear when caring for an ill horse. This study investigating horse owner/manager preferences for treatment alternatives is approached in two parts. The first part of the study collects data from field practitioners to estimate the cost of treatment strategies under different scenarios. The second part consists of a questionnaire presented to horse owners and managers and includes four choices between alternative treatment strategies. Analyzing the data using a conjoint analysis approach, respondents’ willingness to pay for different elements of a treatment strategy are estimated. Based on treatment strategies and demographic interactions, a respondent was willing to pay to cover the cost of a horse who became ill with the equine influenza, but individual price sensitivities suggested horse owners and managers are willing to “treat now” versus “wait and see” in order to not see their horse feel poorly and miss training time

Determinants of Weanling Thoroughbred Auction Prices

Determinants of prices of 1,302 weanling Thoroughbreds sold at the 2010 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale are investigated. A hedonic pricing model is adopted to identify price determinants, and the corresponding marginal values of those determinants are estimated. Prices were responsive to pedigree quality variables, including the sire\u27s stud fee, the stage of the sire\u27s breeding career, and whether the dam or the dam\u27s progeny had earned “black type.” In addition, individual weanling characteristics such as gender, age, state of birth, and sale placement influenced price. Results can be used as a decision tool by both buyers and sellers

Friluftslivsstudenter, miljøbevissthet og utstyrsforbruk – En sammenheng? Hvilke holdninger har norske friluftslivsstudenter til sitt utstyrsforbruk, sett i et miljøbevisst perspektiv?

Formålet med denne bacheloroppgaven har vært å finne ut om friluftslivsstudenter har miljøbevisste holdninger til sitt utstyrsforbruk. Vi har brukt kvalitativ metode i form av fokusgruppeintervju. Det ble gjennomført to fokusgruppeintervju med studenter som studerer bachelor i friluftsliv. I dag står vi ovenfor store globale miljøutfordringer og samtidig lever vi i et forbrukersamfunn, hvor det er helt sikkert at menneskets livsstil fører til negative konsekvenser for miljøet. I Stortingsmelding 39., blir friluftsliv sett på som en bidragsfaktor til en miljøvennlig atferd. Med bakgrunn at vi lever i et forbrukersamfunn, samtidig som vi jobber for å finne løsninger på miljøutfordringer, ønsket vi å se på hvilke holdninger friluftslivsstudenter har ovenfor miljøutfordringer og forbruk av friluftslivsutstyr. Resultatet av oppgaven tyder på at friluftslivsstudentenes utstyrsforbruk i høyere grad er styrt av deres økonomi enn av miljøbevisste valg. Vi ser tendens til at utdannelse og opplysning innen miljø- og klimaproblematikk skaper høyere grad av miljøbevissthet, men at det har liten effekt på studentenes atferd og handlinger sett i et miljøperspektiv. Vi har i prosessen sett på flere faktorer som skaper veien til miljøbevisste holdninger og miljøbevisst atferd, men også innsett at dette temaet er for omfattende til at vi har hatt mulighet til å gå dypt nok inn på det. Vi håper denne oppgaven vil vekke interessen for videre forskning på emnet. God lesing

The role of Wisp1 in epithelial dysfunction in chronic rhinosinusitis

Chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) is a chronic inflammatory disease that can be subdivided into chronic rhinosinusitis sans nasal polyps (CRSsNP), chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP), and aspirin-exacerbated respiratory disease (AERD). Nasal polyps are a hallmark feature of CRSwNP and AERD. Although, the pathophysiology of polypogenesis is thought to be multifactorial, type 2 (allergic-type) immune responses and epithelial remodeling are considered to be central features. In polyp disease, epithelial remodeling and dysfunction leads to decreased epithelial diversity, with increased basal cells and decreased goblet and ciliated cells. A role for Wnt signaling is well established in cancer and fibrotic diseases, and recent studies have indicated that Wnt signaling is also upregulated in sinonasal polyposis, a non-cancerous disease. Wisp1, a downstream mediator of the Wnt pathway, is significantly increased in polyp disease compared to non-polyp disease. Wnt pathway ligands have been reported to induce the proliferation and impair differentiation of airway basal cells, but the direct effect of the downstream Wnt pathway gene, Wisp1, on respiratory basal epithelial cells is unknown. This study aims to investigate the role of Wisp1 on the proliferation, cell migration, and differentiation of human respiratory epithelial cells. In the current study, we found increased expression of WISP1 in nasal polyps examined directly ex vivo. Histological analysis of nasal polyps and WISP1 expression in primary basal epithelial cell cultures suggested epithelial production of Wisp1 as a feature of nasal polyposis. Using submerged and air-liquid interface (ALI) cell cultures, the effect of Wisp1 on proliferation, cell migration and differentiation was investigated. Increased basal cell accumulation and loss of differentiation are hallmarks of sinonasal polyposis. The chronic inflammatory environment present in polyp disease includes chronic increased WISP1 expression, which endorses a role for this protein in disease. The results of this study suggest that prolonged exposure to Wisp1 may lead to an increase in the cellular mass of respiratory basal epithelial cells, while limiting their ability to differentiate, thus allowing for unchecked accumulation. Taken together, our results suggest that Wisp1 may contribute to central features of nasal polyposis, thus identifying this protein as a potential target for future therapeutic intervention