Party system polarization and the effective number of parties

Polarization is a key characteristic of party systems, but scholars disagree about how polarization relates to the number of parties in a system. Different authors find positive, negative, or null relationships. This relationship is what one would expect if parties were drawn randomly from a super-population with an effective sample size somewhere between the effective and raw number of parties. I test this claim using multiple datasets which report party positions and seat shares, before extending my analysis to consider vote-level polarization, the range of positions, and polarization in presidential and parliamentary regimes. My work extends the Taageperaan research agenda of building interlocking networks of equations relating key quantities of electoral and party systems

Local party members’ views are associated, but not completely congruent, with local constituency opinion

Do local political party members reflect the views of voters in their constituencies? Since candidate selection by local party members is the most common form of candidate selection in the UK, it is important to understand local party members’ views, and how those views relate to views in the local area. We investigate the degree to which individual members’ views match local opinion by combining the results of a large-scale survey of party members in the UK with estimates of local opinion created using multilevel regression and post-stratification. We find that individual party members’ views are moderately to strongly associated with local opinion on both left-right and liberty-authority dimensions. Even so, party members are not entirely congruent with opinion in the local area, having opinions which are either to the left or right of voters in their local area, and which are uniformly more liberal than party supporters

Politica in Italia:I fatti dell'anno e le loro interpretazioni

Dopo aver conquistato la leadership del proprio partito alla fine del 2013, ed essere salito a Palazzo Chigi nel mese di febbraio 2014, Matteo Renzi ha impresso una decisa accelerazione all'annoso dibattito sulla riforma delle istituzioni e delle politiche pubbliche nel nostro paese. Senato, riforma elettorale, pubblica amministrazione, crisi economica e lavoro fra i temi "caldi" dell'agenda. Un'agenda costellata di molti annunci, di qualche rinvio e di importanti realizzazioni. Il volume, grazie al qualificato contributo di studiosi italiani e stranieri, offre un'analisi dettagliata di questo "anno del rottamatore", soffermandosi sui fatti principali che hanno interessato il sistema politico, le istituzioni e la società italiana nel suo complesso

Italian Politics:The Year of the Bulldozer

Without doubt, 2014 was the year of Matteo Renzi. Since winning the leadership of his own party at the end of 2013 and becoming prime minister in February 2014, the young Florentine politician has imparted a decisive change of pace to the endless debates over institutional and policy reforms in Italy. The government has tackled reform of the Senate, the electoral law, and state bureaucracy and has issued measures to address the economic crisis and unemployment. These vital matters have formed the heart of the government’s agenda, but that agenda has sometimes seemed to involve “government by press release” and belated recognition of important facts, making overall evaluation of the Renzi government difficult. Thanks to the contributions of international and Italian academics, this volume offers a detailed analysis of the “Year of the Bulldozer,” highlighting the key developments that have affected Italian politics and institutions and Italian society in its broadest sense

Local party members’ views are associated, but not completely congruent, with local constituency opinion

Do local political party members reflect the views of voters in their constituencies? Since candidate selection by local party members is the most common form of candidate selection in the UK, it is important to understand local party members’ views, and how those views relate to views in the local area. We investigate the degree to which individual members’ views match local opinion by combining the results of a large-scale survey of party members in the UK with estimates of local opinion created using multilevel regression and post-stratification. We find that individual party members’ views are moderately to strongly associated with local opinion on both left-right and liberty-authority dimensions. Even so, party members are not entirely congruent with opinion in the local area, having opinions which are either to the left or right of voters in their local area, and which are uniformly more liberal than party supporters.</p

Bias in Perceptions of Public Opinion among Political Elites

The conservative asymmetry of elite polarization represents a significant puzzle. We argue that politicians can maintain systematic misperceptions of constituency opinion that may contribute to breakdowns in dyadic representation. We demonstrate this argument with original surveys of 3,765 politicians' perceptions of constituency opinion on nine issues. In 2012 and 2014, state legislative politicians from both parties dramatically overestimated their constituents' support for conservative policies on these issues, a pattern consistent across methods, districts, and states. Republicans drive much of this overestimation. Exploiting responses from politicians in the same district, we confirm these partisan differences within individual districts. Further evidence suggests that this overestimation may arise due to biases in who contacts politicians, as in recent years Republican citizens have been especially likely to contact legislators, especially fellow Republicans. Our findings suggest that a novel force can operate in elections and in legislatures: Politicians can systematically misperceive what their constituents want