Identifying null meta-analyses that are ripe for updating

BACKGROUND: As an increasingly large number of meta-analyses are published, quantitative methods are needed to help clinicians and systematic review teams determine when meta-analyses are not up to date. METHODS: We propose new methods for determining when non-significant meta-analytic results might be overturned, based on a prediction of the number of participants required in new studies. To guide decision making, we introduce the "new participant ratio", the ratio of the actual number of participants in new studies to the predicted number required to obtain statistical significance. A simulation study was conducted to study the performance of our methods and a real meta-analysis provides further evidence. RESULTS: In our three simulation configurations, our diagnostic test for determining whether a meta-analysis is out of date had sensitivity of 55%, 62%, and 49% with corresponding specificity of 85%, 80%, and 90% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Simulations suggest that our methods are able to detect out-of-date meta-analyses. These quick and approximate methods show promise for use by systematic review teams to help decide whether to commit the considerable resources required to update a meta-analysis. Further investigation and evaluation of the methods is required before they can be recommended for general use

Natriuretic peptide vs. clinical information for diagnosis of left ventricular systolic dysfunction in primary care

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Screening of primary care patients at risk for left ventricular systolic dysfunction by a simple blood-test might reduce referral rates for echocardiography. Whether or not natriuretic peptide testing is a useful and cost-effective diagnostic instrument in primary care settings, however, is still a matter of debate.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels, clinical information, and echocardiographic data of left ventricular systolic function were collected in 542 family practice patients with at least one cardiovascular risk factor. We determined the diagnostic power of the NT-proBNP assessment in ruling out left ventricular systolic dysfunction and compared it to a risk score derived from a logistic regression model of easily acquired clinical information.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>23 of 542 patients showed left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Both NT-proBNP and the clinical risk score consisting of dyspnea at exertion and ankle swelling, coronary artery disease and diuretic treatment showed excellent diagnostic power for ruling out left ventricular systolic dysfunction. AUC of NT-proBNP was 0.83 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.92) with a sensitivity of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.98) and a specificity of 0.46 (95% CI, 0.41 to 0.50). AUC of the clinical risk score was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.79 to 0.91) with a sensitivity of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.98) and a specificity of 0.64 (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.67). 148 misclassifications using NT-proBNP and 55 using the clinical risk score revealed a significant difference (McNemar test; p < 0.001) that was based on the higher specificity of the clinical risk score.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The evaluation of clinical information is at least as effective as NT-proBNP testing in ruling out left ventricular systolic dysfunction in family practice patients at risk. If these results are confirmed in larger cohorts and in different samples, family physicians should be encouraged to rely on the diagnostic power of the clinical information from their patients.</p

Mosquitoes Put the Brake on Arbovirus Evolution: Experimental Evolution Reveals Slower Mutation Accumulation in Mosquito Than Vertebrate Cells

Like other arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses), mosquito-borne dengue virus (DENV) is maintained in an alternating cycle of replication in arthropod and vertebrate hosts. The trade-off hypothesis suggests that this alternation constrains DENV evolution because a fitness increase in one host usually diminishes fitness in the other. Moreover, the hypothesis predicts that releasing DENV from host alternation should facilitate adaptation. To test this prediction, DENV was serially passaged in either a single human cell line (Huh-7), a single mosquito cell line (C6/36), or in alternating passages between Huh-7 and C6/36 cells. After 10 passages, consensus mutations were identified and fitness was assayed by evaluating replication kinetics in both cell types as well as in a novel cell type (Vero) that was not utilized in any of the passage series. Viruses allowed to specialize in single host cell types exhibited fitness gains in the cell type in which they were passaged, but fitness losses in the bypassed cell type, and most alternating passages, exhibited fitness gains in both cell types. Interestingly, fitness gains were observed in the alternately passaged, cloned viruses, an observation that may be attributed to the acquisition of both host cell–specific and amphi-cell-specific adaptations or to recovery from the fitness losses due to the genetic bottleneck of biological cloning. Amino acid changes common to both passage series suggested convergent evolution to replication in cell culture via positive selection. However, intriguingly, mutations accumulated more rapidly in viruses passed in Huh-7 cells than in those passed in C6/36 cells or in alternation. These results support the hypothesis that releasing DENV from host alternation facilitates adaptation, but there is limited support for the hypothesis that such alternation necessitates a fitness trade-off. Moreover, these findings suggest that patterns of genetic evolution may differ between viruses replicating in mammalian and mosquito cells

Incremental value of the CT coronary calcium score for the prediction of coronary artery disease

Objectives:: To validate published prediction models for the presence of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with new onset stable typical or atypical angina pectoris and to assess the incremental value of the CT coronary calcium score (CTCS). Methods:: We searched the literature for clinical prediction rules for the diagnosis of obstructive CAD, defined as≥50% stenosis in at least one vessel on conventional coronary angiography. Significant variables were re-analysed in our dataset of 254 patients with logistic regression. CTCS was subsequently included in the models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to assess diagnostic performance. Results:: Re-analysing the variables used by Diamond & Forrester yielded an AUC of 0.798, which increased to 0.890 by adding CTCS. For Pryor, Morise 1994, Morise 1997 and Shaw the AUC increased from 0.838 to 0.901, 0.831 to 0.899, 0.840 to 0.898 and 0.833 to 0.899. CTCS significantly improved model performance in each model. Conclusions:: Validation demonstrated good diagnostic performance across all models. CTCS improves the prediction of the presence of obstructive CAD, independent of clinical predictors, and should be considered in its diagnostic work-up. © 2010 The Author(s)

Survival advantages conferred to colon cancer cells by E-selectin-induced activation of the PI3K-NFκB survival axis downstream of Death receptor-3

International audienceABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Extravasation of circulating cancer cells is a key event of metastatic dissemination that is initiated by the adhesion of cancer cells to endothelial cells. It requires interactions between adhesion receptors on endothelial cells and their counter-receptors on cancer cells. Notably, E-selectin, a major endothelial adhesion receptor, interacts with Death receptor-3 present on metastatic colon carcinoma cells. This interaction confers metastatic properties to colon cancer cells by promoting the adhesion of cancer cells to endothelial cells and triggering the activation of the pro-migratory p38 and pro-survival ERK pathways in the cancer cells. In the present study, we investigated further the mechanisms by which the E-selectin-activated pathways downstream of DR3 confer a survival advantage to colon cancer cells. METHODS: Cell survival has been ascertained by using the WST-1 assay and by evaluating the activation of the PI3 kinase/NFκB survival axis. Apoptosis has been assayed by determining DNA fragmentation by Hoechst staining and by measuring cleavage of caspases-8 and -3. DR3 isoforms have been identified by PCR. For more precise quantification, targeted PCR reactions were carried out, and the amplified products were analyzed by automated chip-based microcapillary electrophoresis on an Agilent 2100 Bioanalyzer instrument. RESULTS: Interaction between DR3-expressing HT29 colon carcinoma cells and E-selectin induces the activation of the PI3K/Akt pathway. Moreover, p65/RelA, the anti-apoptotic subunit of NFκB, is rapidly translocated to the nucleus in response to E-selectin. This translocation is impaired by the PI3K inhibitor LY294002. Furthermore, inhibition of the PI3K/Akt pathway increases the cleavage of caspase 8 in colon cancer cells treated with E-selectin and this effect is still further increased when both ERK and PI3K pathways are concomitantly inhibited. Intriguingly, metastatic colon cancer cell lines such as HT29 and SW620 express higher levels of a splice variant of DR3 that has no trans-membrane domain and no death domain. CONCLUSION: Colon cancer cells acquire an increased capacity to survive via the activation of the PI3K/NFκB pathway following the stimulation of DR3 by E-selectin. Generation of a DR3 splice variant devoid of death domain can further contribute to protect against apoptosis

Counteracting Quasispecies Adaptability: Extinction of a Ribavirin-Resistant Virus Mutant by an Alternative Mutagenic Treatment

[Background] Lethal mutagenesis, or virus extinction promoted by mutagen-induced elevation of mutation rates of viruses, may meet with the problem of selection of mutagen-resistant variants, as extensively documented for standard, nonmutagenic antiviral inhibitors. Previously, we characterized a mutant of foot-and-mouth disease virus that included in its RNA-dependent RNA polymerase replacement M296I that decreased the sensitivity of the virus to the mutagenic nucleoside analogue ribavirin.[Methodology and Principal Findings] Replacement M296I in the viral polymerase impedes the extinction of the mutant foot-and-mouth disease virus by elevated concentrations of ribavirin. In contrast, wild type virus was extinguished by the same ribavirin treatment and, interestingly, no mutants resistant to ribavirin were selected from the wild type populations. Decreases of infectivity and viral load of the ribavirin-resistant M296I mutant were attained with a combination of the mutagen 5-fluorouracil and the non-mutagenic inhibitor guanidine hydrocloride. However, extinction was achieved with a sequential treatment, first with ribavirin, and then with a minimal dose of 5-fluorouracil in combination with guanidine hydrochloride. Both, wild type and ribavirin-resistant mutant M296I exhibited equal sensitivity to this combination, indicating that replacement M296I in the polymerase did not confer a significant cross-resistance to 5-fluorouracil. We discuss these results in relation to antiviral designs based on lethal mutagenesis[Conclusions] (i) When dominant in the population, a mutation that confers partial resistance to a mutagenic agent can jeopardize virus extinction by elevated doses of the same mutagen. (ii) A wild type virus, subjected to identical high mutagenic treatment, need not select a mutagen-resistant variant, and the population can be extinguished. (iii) Extinction of the mutagen-resistant variant can be achieved by a sequential treatment of a high dose of the same mutagen, followed by a combination of another mutagen with an antiviral inhibitor.Work supported by grants BFU2005-00863, BFU2008-02816/BMC, Proyecto Intramural de Frontera del CSIC 200820FO191, FIPSE 36558/06, and Fundacio´n Ramo´n Areces. CIBERehd is funded by Instituto de Salud Carlos III. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscriptPeer reviewe

Adult reversal of cognitive phenotypes in neurodevelopmental disorders

Recent findings in mice suggest that it is possible to reverse certain neurodevelopmental disorders in adults. Changes in development, previously thought to be irreparable in adults, were believed to underlie the neurological and psychiatric phenotypes of a range of common mental health problems with a clear developmental component. As a consequence, most researchers have focused their efforts on understanding the molecular and cellular processes that alter development with the hope that early intervention could prevent the emergent pathology. Unexpectedly, several different animal model studies published recently, including animal models of autism, suggest that it may be possible to reverse neurodevelopmental disorders in adults: Addressing the underlying molecular and cellular deficits in adults could in several cases dramatically improve the neurocognitive phenotypes in these animal models. The findings reviewed here provide hope to millions of individuals afflicted with a wide range of neurodevelopmental disorders, including autism, since they suggest that it may be possible to treat or even cure them in adults

Water T2 as an early, global and practical biomarker for metabolic syndrome: an observational cross-sectional study

Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a highly prevalent condition that identifies individuals at risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Prevention of these diseases relies on early detection and intervention in order to preserve pancreatic β-cells and arterial wall integrity. Yet, the clinical criteria for MetS are insensitive to the early-stage insulin resistance, inflammation, cholesterol and clotting factor abnormalities that char- acterize the progression toward type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis. Here we report the discovery and initial charac- terization of an atypical new biomarker that detects these early conditions with just one measurement. Methods: Water T2, measured in a few minutes using benchtop nuclear magnetic resonance relaxometry, is exqui- sitely sensitive to metabolic shifts in the blood proteome. In an observational cross-sectional study of 72 non-diabetic human subjects, the association of plasma and serum water T2 values with over 130 blood biomarkers was analyzed using bivariate, multivariate and logistic regression. Results: Plasma and serum water T2 exhibited strong bivariate correlations with markers of insulin, lipids, inflamma- tion, coagulation and electrolyte balance. After correcting for confounders, low water T2 values were independently and additively associated with fasting hyperinsulinemia, dyslipidemia and subclinical inflammation. Plasma water T2 exhibited 100% sensitivity and 87% specificity for detecting early insulin resistance in normoglycemic subjects, as defined by the McAuley Index. Sixteen normoglycemic subjects with early metabolic abnormalities (22% of the study population) were identified by low water T2 values. Thirteen of the 16 did not meet the harmonized clinical criteria for metabolic syndrome and would have been missed by conventional screening for diabetes risk. Low water T2 values were associated with increases in the mean concentrations of 6 of the 16 most abundant acute phase proteins and lipoproteins in plasma. Conclusions: Water T2 detects a constellation of early abnormalities associated with metabolic syndrome, provid- ing a global view of an individual’s metabolic health. It circumvents the pitfalls associated with fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c and the limitations of the current clinical criteria for metabolic syndrome. Water T2 shows promise as an early, global and practical screening tool for the identification of individuals at risk for diabetes and atherosclerosis

A Tale of Four “Carp”: Invasion Potential and Ecological Niche Modeling

. We assessed the geographic potential of four Eurasian cyprinid fishes (common carp, tench, grass carp, black carp) as invaders in North America via ecological niche modeling (ENM). These “carp” represent four stages of invasion of the continent (a long-established invader with a wide distribution, a long-established invader with a limited distribution, a spreading invader whose distribution is expanding, and a newly introduced potential invader that is not yet established), and as such illustrate the progressive reduction of distributional disequilibrium over the history of species' invasions.We used ENM to estimate the potential distributional area for each species in North America using models based on native range distribution data. Environmental data layers for native and introduced ranges were imported from state, national, and international climate and environmental databases. Models were evaluated using independent validation data on native and invaded areas. We calculated omission error for the independent validation data for each species: all native range tests were highly successful (all omission values <7%); invaded-range predictions were predictive for common and grass carp (omission values 8.8 and 19.8%, respectively). Model omission was high for introduced tench populations (54.7%), but the model correctly identified some areas where the species has been successful; distributional predictions for black carp show that large portions of eastern North America are at risk.ENMs predicted potential ranges of carp species accurately even in regions where the species have not been present until recently. ENM can forecast species' potential geographic ranges with reasonable precision and within the short screening time required by proposed U.S. invasive species legislation