More random or more deterministic choices? The effects of information on preferences for biodiversity conservation

For many years, stated preference researchers have been interested in the effects of information onwillingness to pay for environmental goods. Within the random utility model, information about anenvironmental good might impact on preferences and on scale (error variance), both between andwithin samples of choices. In this paper, we extend the G‐MNL model to investigate the effects ofdifferent information sets on choices over the management of biodiversity in the UK, looking specificallyat moorlands managed for red grouse shooting. Specifically, we make the individual scale parameter afunction of observable (dataset‐specific) characteristics. Our results show that changing information setsresults in significant differences in the mean scale between datasets, and in the variance of scale.Respondents are more deterministic in their choices and show lower within‐sample scale heterogeneityin the alternative information treatment. Changes in information provision also effect willingness to payestimates, reducing the value people place on the conservation of two iconic birds of prey. The methodsused will also be of interest to researchers who need to combine choice experiment data sets

How to 'Sell' an Environmental Good: Using Labels to Investigate Scope Effects

Insufficient sensitivity to scope remains one of the pivots of criticism addressed at validity of stated preference methods. Many studies demonstrate failure of a scope test of some sort, while many others show that WTP responses are sensitive to the scope of environmental change. Despite some existing explanations and reasons for insensitivity to scope (embedding, warm glow, uncertainty over supply of a public good, awareness of all options) there seems to exist no clear conclusion on how to deal with it. The paper provides an alternative explanation for insufficient sensitivity to scope, based on redefinition of value drivers of environmental goods. In the proposed framework respondents’ WTP need not depend only on physical characteristics of a valued good but may also partly be a function of a ‘label’ under which the environmental good is ‘sold’. To investigate this problem and empirically test the hypothesis and its implications a CE study in a biodiversity valuation setting is designed and conducted. The conceptual framework and empirical evidence provide an alternative explanation for problems with the insufficient sensitivity to scope observed in many studies. Finally, we set out some implications of the nature of labels as value drivers for the design of future valuation studies

Should we pay for ecosystem service outputs, inputs or both?

Payments for ecosystem service outputs have recently become a popular policy prescription for a range of agri-environmental schemes. The focus of this paper is on the choice of contract instruments to incentivise the provision of ecosystem service outputs from farms. The farmer is better informed than the regulator in terms of hidden information about costs and hidden-actions relating to effort. The results show that with perfect information, the regulator can contract equivalently on inputs or outputs. With hidden information, input-based contracts are more cost effective at reducing the informational rent related to adverse selection than output-based contracts. Mixed contracts are also cost-effective, especially where one input is not observable. Such contracts allow the regulator to target variables that are “costly-to-fake” as opposed to those prone to moral hazard such as effort. Further results are given for fixed price contracts and input-based contracts with moral hazard. The model is extended to include a discussion of repeated contracting and the scope that exists for the regulator to benefit from information revealed by the initial choice of contract. The models are applied to a case study of contracting with farmers to protect high biodiversity native vegetation that also provides socially-valuable ecosystem services.PostprintPeer reviewe

The effects of rent seeking over tradable pollution permits

The establishment of a tradable permit market requires the regulator to select a level of aggregate emissions and then distribute the associated permits (rent) to specific groups. In most circumstances, these decisions are often politically contentious and frequently influenced by rent seeking behaviour. In this paper, we use a contest model to analyse the effects of rent seeking effort when permits are freely distributed (grandfathered). Rent seeking behaviour can influence both the share of permits which an individual firm receives and also the total supply of permits. This latter impact depends on the responsiveness of the regulator to aggregate rent seeking effort. Using a three-stage game, we show that rent seeking can influence both the distribution of rents and the ex post value of these rents, whilst welfare usually decreases in the responsiveness of the regulator

A combinatorial optimisation approach to non-market environmental benefit aggregation

This paper considers the use of spatial microsimulation in the aggregation of regional environmental benefit values. The developed spatial microsimulation model uses simulated annealing to match the Irish Census of Agriculture data to a Contingent Valuation Survey that contains information on Irish farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) to have the corncrake restored as a common sight in the Irish countryside. We then use this matched farm survey and Census information to produce regional and national total WTP figures, and compare these to figures derived using more standard approaches to calculating aggregate environment benefit values. The main advantage of the spatial microsimulation approach for environmental benefit value aggregation is that it allows one to account for the heterogeneity in the target population. Results indicate that the microsimulation modelling approach provides aggregate WTP estimates of a similar magnitude as those produced using the usual sample mean WTP aggregation at the national level, but yields regional aggregate values which are significantly different

Modelling preference heterogeneity in stated choice data: an analysis for public goods generated by agriculture

Stated choice models based on the random utility framework are becoming increasingly popular in the applied economics literature. The need to account for respondents’ preference heterogeneity in such models has motivated researchers in agricultural, environmental, health and transport economics to apply random parameter logit and latent class models. In most of the published literature these models incorporate heterogeneity in preferences through the systematic component of utility. An alternative approach is to investigate heterogeneity through the random component of utility, and covariance heterogeneity models are one means of doing this. In this paper we compare these alternative ways of incorporating preference heterogeneity in stated choice models and evaluate how the selection of approach affects welfare estimates in a given empirical application. We find that a Latent Class approach fits our data best but all the models perform well in terms of out-of-sample predictions. Finally, we discuss what criteria a researcher can use to decide which approach is most appropriate for a given data set

Genuine savings and future well-being in Germany, 1850-2000

Genuine Savings (GS), also known as ‘net adjusted savings', is a composite indicator of the sustainability of economic development. Genuine Savings reflects year-on-year changes in the total wealth or capital of a country, including net investment in produced capita, investment in human capital, depletion of natural resources, and damage caused by pollution. A negative Genuine Savings rate suggests that the stock of national wealth is declining and that future utility must be less than current utility, indicating that economic development is non-sustainable (Hamilton and Clemens, 1999). We make use of data over a 150 year period to examine the relationship between Genuine Savings and a number of indicators of well-being over time, and compare the relative changes in human, produced, and components of natural capital over the period. Overall, we find that the magnitude of genuine savings is positively related to changes in future consumption, with some evidence of a cointegrating relationship. However, the relationships between genuine savings and infant mortality or average heights are less clear

The implications of incorrect utility function specification for welfare measurement in choice experiments

Despite the vital role of utility functional form in welfare measurement, the implications of working with incorrect utility specifications have not been examined in the choice experiments (CE) literature. This paper addresses the importance of the specification of both non-monetary attributes and the marginal utility of income. Monte Carlo experiments have been conducted wherein different attribute specifications and assumptions for the Cost parameter –that is, different functional forms of utility– have been assumed to generate simulated choices on which Multi-Nomial Logit and Mixed Logit models have been estimated under correct and incorrect assumptions about the true, underlying utility function. The inferred values have been compared with the true ones directly calculated from the true utility specifications. Results show that working with simple experimental designs and continuous-linear specifications makes attribute specification irrelevant for measuring attribute marginal values regardless of the true effects the attribute has on utility

How wrong can you be? Implications of incorrect utility function specification for welfare measurement in choice experiments

Despite the vital role of the utility function in welfare measurement, the implications of working with incorrect utility specifications have been largely neglected in the choice experiments literature. This paper addresses the importance of specification with a special emphasis on the effects of mistaken assumptions about the marginal utility of income. Monte Carlo experiments were conducted using different functional forms of utility to generate simulated choices. Multi-Nomial Logit and Mixed Logit models were then estimated on these choices under correct and incorrect assumptions about the true, underlying utility function. Estimated willingness to pay measures from these choice modelling results are then compared with the equivalent measures directly calculated from the true utility specifications. Results show that for the parameter values and functional forms considered, a continuous-quadratic or a discrete-linear attribute specification is a good option regardless of the true effects the attribute has on utility. We also find that mistaken assumptions about preferences over costs magnify attribute mis-specification effects

Measuring the demand for nature-based tourism in Africa: a choice experiment using the "cut-off" approach

Integrated Conservation and Development Plans (ICDPs) have been put forward as means of reconciling wildlife conservation in developing countries with improvements in community incomes. In this paper, we use the Choice Experiment approach to quantify overseas tourists’ willingness to pay for attributes of nature-based tourism as part of an ICDP, focussing on visits to mountain gorilla areas in Rwanda. Contributions to community incomes are included as one attribute of the design. Methodologically, we employ a “cut-offs” approach to choice modelling to filter inconsistent responses and to reduce hypothetical market bias. Three major findings are that (i) many people choose options which violate their stated maximum trip price (ii) the cut-offs approach changes parameter estimates and thus willingness to pay estimates; and that (ii) that tourists do not have a significant demand for how much of tourism spending is channelled to local communities