Impact of Real Sector Variables on Shari’a Compliant Stock Returns

Shari’a compliant stocks are a recent development under Islamic finance, whereby stocks are screened through Shari’a compliance filters. This study is conducted to understand and document the important Real Sector macroeconomic factors contributing in determining stock prices of Shari’a compliant companies in Pakistan. Our sample includes all 97 non-financial companies screened by Al-Meezan Investment Management Ltd, based on financial results of 2009. We have included Six Macroeconomic variables in addition to market index in our study for ten years period (2001-10). Results identified Zero real sector variable in pricing, however, with the inclusion of market index in analysis, the single important variable in pricing of Shari’a compliant securities is market Beta. Evidence favors CAPM for pricing of securities in local market as market index captures the risk of macroeconomic variables

Risk and Returns of Shar??ah Compliant Stocks on the Karachi Stock Exchange: A CAPM and SCAPM Approach

This study documents the asset pricing mechanism of Shar??ah compliant securities listed on the the Karachi Stock Exchange. We select the CAPM market model to test for the impact in variations of stock returns on a sample of Shar??ah-compliant companies on ten years monthly data (2001-10). We first test the basic CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) and its modified form known as the Shar??ah-compliant asset pricing model (SCAPM). We also analyse return differences due to size (market capitalization), book to market (B/M) value, price-earning ratio (PER), and cash-flow yield (CFY). Our results find a strong impact of the market index on stock returns (adj-R2 70%) and confirm the anomalies of size, B/M, CFY, and PER, while SCAPM is slightly better in explaining variations in cross-sectional stock returns

Risk and Returns in Shari’a Compliant Cross-section Stocks : Evidence from an Emerging Market

Purpose: This study is intends to understand and document the impact of market-based—market returns and momentum—as well as firm-specific—size, book to market ratio (B/M), price to earnings ratio (PER) and cash flow (CF)—factors on pricing of Shari’a compliant securities as explanation of variations in stock returns in an emerging market—Pakistan’s Karachi Stock Exchange. Methodology: Initially, we test Fama and French (FF) three-factor model—market risk premium, size, and B/M—followed by modified FF model by including additional risk factors [PER, CF and momentum] over a ten year period (2001 to 2010). Findings: Our results support superiority of FF three-factor model over single-factor capital asset pricing model (CAPM). However, addition of further risk factors—including PER, CF and momentum—improve explanatory power of the model as well as refine the selection of risk factors. In our study CF, B/M and momentum factors remain insignificant. Traditional B/M factor in FF model is replaced by PER. Practical implications: Based on the modified FF model, we propose a stock valuation model for Shari’a compliant securities consisting of three factors: market returns, size, and earnings which explains 76% variations in cross sectional stock returns. Originality/Value: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study (which combines market-based as well as fundamental factors) on pricing of Islamic securities and identification of risk factors in an emerging market—Karachi Stock Exchange

Diagnostic laparoscopy to investigate unexplained lactic acidosis in critically ill patients - a descriptive single centre cohort study

Introduction: Unexplained lactic acidosis (LA) in a critically ill patient often prompts investigations to rule out any reversible intra-abdominal cause. Equivocal results can lead to an emergency laparotomy (EL) with subsequent high morbidity and mortality rates. Our objective was to determine the clinical impact of urgent diagnostic laparoscopy (UDL) in such patients. Methods: This was a descriptive single-centre cohort study. UDL on 28 consecutive critically ill patients with unexplained LA who were referred to a single surgeon over 16 years period were analysed. UDL was proformed either at bedside or in theatre without prior computerised tomography (CT) scan. Patient's demographics, ASA grade, referral route and intraoperative findings were analysed. Results: Eighteen patients underwent bedside UDL in the critical care setting and further 10 had UDL in theatre. Fourteen patients had normal UDL, out of these 10 had LA secondary to low cardiac output states. Fourteen patients had positive UDL findings. Seven patients had features of mesenteric ischaemia, two had gangrenous gallbladder, two had hepatic ischaemia, one patient had acute pancreatitis, one had gangrenous uterus and one had gastric volvulus. Five of the 14 patients with positive UDL were converted to laparotomy for definitive management. In total, of the 28 patients in the cohort, 23 patients avoided EL. Conclusion: UDL is useful and feasible investigation for unexplained LA in the critically ill patients and it can avoid unnecessary EL in many patients. We would recommend the use of UDL as a safe and feasible investigation in such patients

A small-size macroeconometric model for Pakistan economy

This paper is part of efforts to develop macroeconometric model for Pakistan (MMP). This paper is an initial attempt to develop a small size macroeconometric model to foresee the effects of monetary policy through forecasting and simulations. We present the basic structure of macroeconometric model for Pakistan. This is a small-size model comprising 17 equations, out of which 11 are behavioral equations while the rest are either identities or definitional equations. OLS method is used to estimate the behavioral equations by using annual data from FY73-FY06. We provide the estimation results and results of policy simulations to quantify the impact of shocks to various exogenous variables

A small-size macroeconometric model for Pakistan economy

This paper is part of efforts to develop macroeconometric model for Pakistan (MMP). This paper is an initial attempt to develop a small size macroeconometric model to foresee the effects of monetary policy through forecasting and simulations. We present the basic structure of macroeconometric model for Pakistan. This is a small-size model comprising 17 equations, out of which 11 are behavioral equations while the rest are either identities or definitional equations. OLS method is used to estimate the behavioral equations by using annual data from FY73-FY06. We provide the estimation results and results of policy simulations to quantify the impact of shocks to various exogenous variables

Global dispersal and adaptive evolution of domestic cattle: a genomic perspective

Domestic cattle have spread across the globe and inhabit variable and unpredictable environments. They have been exposed to a plethora of selective pressures and have adapted to a variety of local ecological and management conditions, including UV exposure, diseases, and stall-feeding systems. These selective pressures have resulted in unique and important phenotypic and genetic differences among modern cattle breeds/populations. Ongoing efforts to sequence the genomes of local and commercial cattle breeds/populations, along with the growing availability of ancient bovid DNA data, have significantly advanced our understanding of the genomic architecture, recent evolution of complex traits, common diseases, and local adaptation in cattle. Here, we review the origin and spread of domestic cattle and illustrate the environmental adaptations of local cattle breeds/populations

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio

Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10–24 years during the past three decades. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10–14, 15–19, and 20–24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019. Findings: In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31·1 million DALYs (of which 16·2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10–24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34·4% (from 17·5 to 11·5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47·7% (from 15·9 to 8·3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80·5% to 42 774 for transport injuries and by 39·4% to 31 961 for unintentional injuries). In the high-SDI quintile in 2010–19, the rate per 100 000 of transport injury DALYs was reduced by 16·7%, from 838 in 2010 to 699 in 2019. This was a substantially slower pace of reduction compared with the 48·5% reduction between 1990 and 2010, from 1626 per 100 000 in 1990 to 838 per 100 000 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of unintentional injury DALYs per 100 000 also remained largely unchanged in high-SDI countries (555 in 2010 vs 554 in 2019; 0·2% reduction). The number and rate of adolescent deaths and DALYs owing to environmental heat and cold exposure increased for the high-SDI quintile during 2010–19. Interpretation: As other causes of mortality are addressed, inadequate progress in reducing transport and unintentional injury mortality as a proportion of adolescent deaths becomes apparent. The relative shift in the burden of injury from high-SDI countries to low and low–middle-SDI countries necessitates focused action, including global donor, government, and industry investment in injury prevention. The persisting burden of DALYs related to transport and unintentional injuries indicates a need to prioritise innovative measures for the primary prevention of adolescent injury. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC