Spatial and temporal patterns of deformation at the Tendaho geothermal prospect, Ethiopia

Observations of ground deformation in East Africa have been fundamental for unveiling the tectonics of continental rifting, assessing the seismic and volcanic hazard to development, and identifying geothermal resources. Here we investigate the active natural and anthropogenic processes in the Tendaho Graben, Afar using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) collected by the Envisat satellite in 2004–2010. We used the Poly-Interferometric Rate And time series Estimation (π-RATE) method to calculate displacement in satellite line-of-sight, and a least-square inversion to decompose the line-of-sight displacement into vertical and rift perpendicular components. We observe two zones of deformation: a 20 km wide circular region of subsidence located 10 km northeast of the town of Semera with a maximum displacement rate of ∼5 cm/yr; and elongated zone (50 km) of subsidence in the area of the geothermal prospect, maximum rate of ∼4 cm/yr. The temporal characteristics of subsidence varies between these zones, with an increase in subsidence rate observed in the circular region in August 2008. We used a Bayesian inversion to find the best fitting source models and compared this to locations of seismicity and other geophysical observations. The pattern of deformation is consistent with a combination of magmatic and geothermal processes, but there does not appear to be a direct link to a sequence of dyke intrusions during 2005–2010 at Manda Hararo graben ∼60 km away, but dynamic stress changes or deep crustal flow could account for the observations

Design and Implementation of a Scalable, Automated, Semi-Permanent Seismic Array for Detecting CO2 Extent during Geologic CO2 Injection

A proof-of-concept demonstration using a scalable, automated, semipermanent, seismic array (SASSA) is being conducted to test a novel seismic method for detecting and tracking an injected CO2plume as it traverses discreet points within a reservoir in southeastern Montana at Bell Creek oil field which is undergoing commercial CO2enhanced oil recovery (EOR). This document serves to describe the technical design of the project infrastructure, the operational approach, corresponding data collection, and data-processing activities

Volume Characteristics of Landslides Triggered by the MW 7.8 2016 Kaikōura Earthquake, New Zealand, Derived From Digital Surface Difference Modeling

We use a mapped landslide inventory coupled with a 2‐m resolution vertical difference model covering an area of 6,875 km2 to accurately constrain landslide volume‐area relationships. We use the difference model to calculate the source volumes for landslides triggered by the MW 7.8 Kaikōura, New Zealand, earthquake of 14 November 2016. Of the 29,519 mapped landslides in the inventory, 28,394 are within the analysis area, and of these, we have calculated the volume of 17,256 source areas that are ≥90% free of debris. Of the 28,394 landslides, about 80% are classified as soil or rock avalanches and the remainder as mainly translational slides. Our results show that both the soil avalanches and the rock avalanches, ignoring their source geology, have area to volume power‐law scaling exponents (γ) of 0.921 to 1.060 and 1.040 to 1.138, respectively. These are lower than the γ values of 1.1–1.3 (for soil) and 1.3–1.6 (for rock) reported in the literature for undifferentiated landslide types. They are, however, similar to those γ values estimated from other coseismic landslide inventories. In contrast, for 50 selected rotational, translational (planar slide surfaces), or compound slides, where much of the debris remains in the source area, we found γ values range between 1.46 and 1.47, indicating that their slide surfaces were considerably deeper than those landslides classified as avalanches. This study, like previous studies on coseismic landslides, shows that soil and rock avalanches (disrupted landslides) are the dominant landslide type triggered by earthquakes and that they tend to be shallow.Key PointsWe use a 2‐m resolution vertical difference model to estimate source volumes for 17,256 landslides with sources ≥90% free of debris triggered by the MW7.8 2016 Kaikōura EarthquakeThe model was derived by subtracting a tectonically adjusted pre‐EQ surface model from a post‐EQ model, covering an area of 6,875 km2Landslide trigger mechanism, type/failure mode, and source material are critical for accurate estimation of landslide volumes from source‐area geometriesPeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/156166/2/jgrf21176.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/156166/1/jgrf21176_am.pd

Systematic review and meta-analysis of reduction in all-cause mortality from walking and cycling and shape of dose response relationship

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Walking and cycling have shown beneficial effects on population risk of all-cause mortality (ACM). This paper aims to review the evidence and quantify these effects, adjusted for other physical activity (PA). DATA SOURCES: We conducted a systematic review to identify relevant studies. Searches were conducted in November 2013 using the following health databases of publications: Embase (OvidSP); Medline (OvidSP); Web of Knowledge; CINAHL; SCOPUS; SPORTDiscus. We also searched reference lists of relevant texts and reviews. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA AND PARTICIPANTS: Eligible studies were prospective cohort design and reporting walking or cycling exposure and mortality as an outcome. Only cohorts of individuals healthy at baseline were considered eligible. STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS: Extracted data included study population and location, sample size, population characteristics (age and sex), follow-up in years, walking or cycling exposure, mortality outcome, and adjustment for other co-variables. We used random-effects meta-analyses to investigate the beneficial effects of regular walking and cycling. RESULTS: Walking (18 results from 14 studies) and cycling (8 results from 7 studies) were shown to reduce the risk of all-cause mortality, adjusted for other PA. For a standardised dose of 11.25 MET.hours per week (or 675 MET.minutes per week), the reduction in risk for ACM was 11% (95% CI = 4 to 17%) for walking and 10% (95% CI = 6 to 13%) for cycling. The estimates for walking are based on 280,000 participants and 2.6 million person-years and for cycling they are based on 187,000 individuals and 2.1 million person-years. The shape of the dose-response relationship was modelled through meta-analysis of pooled relative risks within three exposure intervals. The dose-response analysis showed that walking or cycling had the greatest effect on risk for ACM in the first (lowest) exposure interval. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The analysis shows that walking and cycling have population-level health benefits even after adjustment for other PA. Public health approaches would have the biggest impact if they are able to increase walking and cycling levels in the groups that have the lowest levels of these activities. REVIEW REGISTRATION: The review protocol was registered with PROSPERO (International database of prospectively registered systematic reviews in health and social care) PROSPERO 2013: CRD42013004266

How the risk of liver cancer changes after alcohol cessation: A review and meta-analysis of the current literature

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>It is well established that drinking alcohol raises the risk of liver cancer (hepatocellular carcinoma). However, it has not been sufficiently established as to whether or not drinking cessation subsequently reduces the risk of liver cancer and if it does reduce the risk how long it takes for this heightened risk to fall to that of never drinkers. This question is important for effective policy design and evaluation, to establish causality and for motivational treatments.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A systematic review and meta-analysis using the current available evidence and a specific form of Generalised Least Squares is performed to assess how the risk of liver cancer changes with time for former drinkers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Four studies are found to have quantified the effect of drinking cessation on the risk of liver cancer. The meta-analysis suggests that the risk of liver cancer does indeed fall after cessation by 6-7% a year, but there remains a large uncertainty around this estimate both statistically and in its interpretation. As an illustration it is estimated that a time period of 23 years is required after drinking cessation, with a correspondingly large 95% confidence interval of 14 to 70 years, for the risk of liver cancer to be equal to that of never drinkers.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This is a relatively under researched area and this is reflected in the uncertainty of the findings. It is our view that it is not possible to extrapolate the results found here to the general population. Too few studies have addressed this question and of the studies that have, all have significant limitations. The key issue amongst the relevant studies is that it appears that current drinkers, abstainers and former drinkers are not composed of, or effectively adjusted to be, similar populations making inferences about risk changes impossible. This is a very difficult area to study effectively, but it is an important topic. More work is required to reduce both statistical uncertainty and tackle the various study limitations this paper highlights and until this is done, the current result should be considered preliminary.</p

The relation between smokeless tobacco and cancer in Northern Europe and North America. A commentary on differences between the conclusions reached by two recent reviews

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Smokeless tobacco is an alternative for smokers who want to quit but require nicotine. Reliable evidence on its effects is needed. Boffetta et al. and ourselves recently reviewed the evidence on cancer, based on Scandinavian and US studies. Boffetta et al. claimed a significant 60–80% increase for oropharyngeal, oesophageal and pancreatic cancer, and a non-significant 20% increase for lung cancer, data for other cancers being "too sparse". We found increases less than 15% for oesophageal, pancreatic and lung cancer, and a significant 36% increase for oropharyngeal cancer, which disappeared in recent studies. We found no association with stomach, bladder and all cancers combined, using data as extensive as that for oesophageal, pancreatic and lung cancer. We explain these differences.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>For those cancers Boffetta et al. considered, we compared the methods, studies and risk estimates used in the two reviews.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>One major reason for the difference is our more consistent approach in choosing between study-specific never smoker and combined smoker/non-smoker estimates. Another is our use of derived as well as published estimates. We included more studies, and avoided estimates for data subsets. Boffetta et al. also included some clearly biased or not smoking-adjusted estimates. For pancreatic cancer, their review included significantly increased never smoker estimates in one study and combined smoker/non-smoker estimates in another, omitting a combined estimate in the first study and a never smoker estimate in the second showing no increase. For oesophageal cancer, never smoker results from one study showing a marked increase for squamous cell carcinoma were included, but corresponding results for adenocarcinoma and combined smoker/non-smoker results for both cell types showing no increase were excluded. For oropharyngeal cancer, Boffetta et al. included a markedly elevated estimate that was not smoking-adjusted, and overlooked the lack of association in recent studies.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>When conducting meta-analyses, all relevant data should be used, with clear rules governing the choice between alternative estimates. A systematic meta-analysis using pre-defined procedures and all relevant data gives a lower estimate of cancer risk from smokeless tobacco (probably 1–2% of that from smoking) than does the previous review by Boffetta et al.</p

Thermal conductivity of refractory glass fibres

In the present study, the current international standards and corresponding apparatus for measuring the thermal conductivity of refractory glass fibre products have been reviewed. Refractory glass fibres are normally produced in the form of low-density needled mats. A major issue with thermal conductivity measurements of these materials is lack of reproducibility in the test results due to transformation of the test material during the test. Also needled mats are inherently inhomogeneous, and this poses additional problems. To be able to compare the various methods of thermal conductivity measurement, a refractory reference material was designed which is capable of withstanding maximum test temperatures (1673 K) with minimum transformation. The thermal conductivity of this reference material was then measured using various methods according to the different standards surveyed. In order to compare different materials, samples have been acquired from major refractory glass fibre manufacturers and the results have been compared against the newly introduced reference material. Materials manufactured by melt spinning, melt blowing and sol–gel have been studied, and results compared with literature values

Transient deformation associated with explosive eruption measured at Masaya volcano (Nicaragua) using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar

Deformation caused by processes within a volcanic conduit are localised, transient, and therefore challenging to measure. However, observations of such deformation are important because they provide insight into conditions preceding explosive activity, and are important for hazard assessment. Here, we present measurements of low magnitude, transient deformation covering an area of ∼4 km2 at Masaya volcano spanning a period of explosive eruptions (30th April - 17th May 2012). Radial uplift of duration 24 days and peak displacements of a few millimetres occurred in the month before the eruption, but switched to subsidence ∼27 days before the onset of the explosive eruption on 30th of April. Uplift resumed during, and continued for ∼16 days after the end of the explosive eruption period. We use a finite element modelling approach to investigate a range of possible source geometries for this deformation, and find that the changes in pressurisation of a conduit 450 m below the surface vent (radius 160 m and length 700 m), surrounded by a halo of brecciated material with a Young’s modulus of 15 GPa, gave a good fit to the InSAR displacements. We propose that the pre-eruptive deformation sequence at Masaya is likely to have been caused by the movement of magma through a constriction within the shallow conduit system. Although measuring displacements associated with conduit processes remains challenging, new high resolution InSAR datasets will increasingly allow the measurement of transient and lower magnitude deformation signals, improving the method’s applicability for observing transitions between volcanic activity characterised by an open and a closed conduit system

Extension and stress during continental breakup: seismic anisotropy of the crust in Northern Afar

Studies that attempt to simulate continental rifting and subsequent breakup require detailed knowledge of crustal stresses, however observational constraints from continental rifts are lacking. In addition, a knowledge of the stress field around active volcanoes can be used to detect sub-surface changes to the volcanic system. Here we use shear wave splitting to measure the seismic anisotropy of the crust in Northern Afar, a region of active, magma-rich continental breakup. We combine shear wave splitting tomography with modelling of gravitational and magmatic induced stresses to propose a model for crustal stress and strain across the rift. Results show that at the Ethiopian Plateau, seismic anisotropy is consistently oriented N–S. Seismic anisotropy within the rift is generally oriented NNW–SSE, with the exception of regions north and south of the Danakil Depression where seismic anisotropy is rift-perpendicular. These results suggest that the crust at the rift axis is characterized by rift-aligned structures and melt inclusions, consistent with a focusing of tectonic extension at the rift axis. In contrast, we show that at regions within the rift where extension rate is minimal the seismic anisotropy is best explained by the gravitationally induced stress field originating from variations in crustal thickness. Seismic anisotropy away from the rift is controlled by a combination of inherited crustal structures and gravitationally induced extension whereas at the Dabbahu region we show that the stress field changes orientation in response to magmatic intrusions. Our proposed model provides a benchmark of crustal stress in Northern Afar which will aid the monitoring of volcanic hazard. In addition we show that gravitational forces play a key role in measurements of seismic anisotropy, and must be considered in future studies. We demonstrate that during the final stages of continental rifting the stress field at the rift axis is primarily controlled by tectonic extension, but that gravitational forces and magmatic intrusions can play a key role in the orientation of the stress field