Predicting September sea ice: Ensemble skill of the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook 2008-2013

Abstract Since 2008, the Study of Environmental Arctic Change Sea Ice Outlook has solicited predictions of September sea-ice extent from the Arctic research community. Individuals and teams employ a variety of modeling, statistical, and heuristic approaches to make these predictions. Viewed as monthly ensembles each with one or two dozen individual predictions, they display a bimodal pattern of success. In years when observed ice extent is near its trend, the median predictions tend to be accurate. In years when the observed extent is anomalous, the median and most individual predictions are less accurate. Statistical analysis suggests that year-to-year variability, rather than methods, dominate the variation in ensemble prediction success. Furthermore, ensemble predictions do not improve as the season evolves. We consider the role of initial ice, atmosphere and ocean conditions, and summer storms and weather in contributing to the challenge of sea-ice prediction. Key Points Analysis of Sea Ice Outlook contributions 2008-2013 shows bimodal success Years when observations depart from trend are hard to predict despite preconditioning Yearly conditions dominate variations in ensemble prediction success

Predicting September sea ice: Ensemble skill of the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook 2008–2013

Since 2008, the Study of Environmental Arctic Change Sea Ice Outlook has solicited predictions of September sea-ice extent from the Arctic research community. Individuals and teams employ a variety of modeling, statistical, and heuristic approaches to make these predictions. Viewed as monthly ensembles each with one or two dozen individual predictions, they display a bimodal pattern of success. In years when observed ice extent is near its trend, the median predictions tend to be accurate. In years when the observed extent is anomalous, the median and most individual predictions are less accurate. Statistical analysis suggests that year-to-year variability, rather than methods, dominate the variation in ensemble prediction success. Furthermore, ensemble predictions do not improve as the season evolves. We consider the role of initial ice, atmosphere and ocean conditions, and summer storms and weather in contributing to the challenge of sea-ice prediction

Sea Ice Prediction Has Easy and Difficult Years

Arctic sea ice follows an annual cycle, reaching its low point in September each year. The extent of sea ice remaining at this low point has been trending downwards for decades as the Arctic warms. Around the long-term downward trend, however, there is significant variation in the minimum extent from one year to the next. Accurate forecasts of yearly conditions would have great value to Arctic residents, shipping companies, and other stakeholders and are the subject of much current research. Since 2008 the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) (http://www.arcus.org/search-program/seaiceoutlook) organized by the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) (http://www.arcus.org/search-program) has invited predictions of the September Arctic sea ice minimum extent, which are contributed from the Arctic research community. Individual predictions, based on a variety of approaches, are solicited in three cycles each year in early June, July, and August. (SEARCH 2013)

An International Ultraviolet Explorer Archival Study of Dwarf Novae in Outburst

We present a synthetic spectral analysis of nearly the entire far ultraviolet International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) archive of spectra of dwarf novae in or near outburst. The study includes 46 systems of all dwarf nova subtypes both above and below the period gap. The spectra were uniformly analyzed using synthetic spectral codes for optically thick accretion disks and stellar photospheres along with the best-available distance measurements or estimates. We present newly estimated accretion rates and discuss the implications of our study for disk accretion physics and CV evolution.Comment: Accepted for publication in the ApJ, Part

Beef production from feedstuffs conserved using new technologies to reduce negative environmental impacts

End of project reportMost (ca. 86%) Irish farms make some silage. Besides directly providing feed for livestock, the provision of grass silage within integrated grassland systems makes an important positive contribution to effective grazing management and improved forage utilisation by grazing animals, and to effective feed budgeting by farmers. It can also contribute to maintaining the content of desirable species in pastures, and to livestock not succumbing to parasites at sensitive times of the year. Furthermore, the optimal recycling of nutrients collected from housed livestock can often be best achieved by spreading the manures on the land used for producing the conserved feed. On most Irish farms, grass silage will remain the main conserved forage for feeding to livestock during winter for the foreseeable future. However, on some farms high yields of whole-crop (i.e. grain + straw) cereals such as wheat, barley and triticale, and of forage maize, will be an alternative option provided that losses during harvesting, storage and feedout are minimised and that input costs are restrained. These alternative forages have the potential to reliably support high levels of animal performance while avoiding the production of effluent. Their production and use however will need to advantageously integrate into ruminant production systems. A range of technologies can be employed for crop production and conservation, and for beef production, and the optimal options need to be identified. Beef cattle being finished indoors are offered concentrate feedstuffs at rates that range from modest inputs through to ad libitum access. Such concentrates frequently contain high levels of cereals such as barley or wheat. These cereals are generally between 14% to 18% moisture content and tend to be rolled shortly before being included in coarse rations or are more finely processed prior to pelleting. Farmers thinking of using ‘high-moisture grain’ techniques for preserving and processing cereal grains destined for feeding to beef cattle need to know how the yield, conservation efficiency and feeding value of such grains compares with grains conserved using more conventional techniques. European Union policy strongly encourages a sustainable and multifunctional agriculture. Therefore, in addition to providing European consumers with quality food produced within approved systems, agriculture must also contribute positively to the conservation of natural resources and the upkeep of the rural landscape. Plastics are widely used in agriculture and their post-use fate on farms must not harm the environment - they must be managed to support the enduring sustainability of farming systems. There is an absence of information on the efficacy of some new options for covering and sealing silage with plastic sheeting and tyres, and an absence of an inventory of the use, re-use and post-use fate of plastic film on farms. Irish cattle farmers operate a large number of beef production systems, half of which use dairy bred calves. In the current, continuously changing production and market conditions, new beef systems must be considered. A computer package is required that will allow the rapid, repeatable simulation and assessment of alternate beef production systems using appropriate, standardised procedures. There is thus a need to construct, evaluate and utilise computer models of components of beef production systems and to develop mathematical relationships to link system components into a network that would support their integration into an optimal system model. This will provide a framework to integrate physical and financial on-farm conditions with models for estimating feed supply and animal growth patterns. Cash flow and profit/loss results will be developed. This will help identify optimal systems, indicate the cause of failure of imperfect systems and identify areas where applied research data are currently lacking, or more basic research is required

Far Ultraviolet Spectral Analysis of the Prototype Nova-Like Variable VY Sculptoris from the High State to the Low State

The prototype nova-like variable VY Sculptoris was observed by the IUE during four different optical brightness states of the system. The FUV flux level from the highest state to the lowest state declines by a factor of 28. We have carried out model accretion disk and white dwarf atmosphere fitting to the spectra. The corresponding accretion rates range from $\dot{M}= 8 \times 10^{-9}$M_{\sun} yr$^{-1}$ at the highest FUV flux level down to $\dot{M}= 1.9\times 10^{-10}$M_{\sun} yr$^{-1}$ at the lowest flux level. We report tentative evidence for the detection of the underlying white dwarf with $T_{\rm eff} = 45,000$K in the spectrum with the lowest flux level.Comment: Accepted for publication in the PASP (to appear in February, 2008 issue

Recommendations for accurate CT diagnosis of suspected acute aortic syndrome (AAS)-on behalf of the British Society of Cardiovascular Imaging (BSCI)/British Society of Cardiovascular CT (BSCCT)

Accurate and timely assessment of suspected acute aortic syndrome is crucial in this life-threatening condition. Imaging with CT plays a central role in the diagnosis to allow expedited management. Diagnosis can be made using locally available expertise with optimized scanning parameters, making full use of recent advances in CT technology. Each imaging centre must optimize their protocols to allow accurate diagnosis, to optimize radiation dose and in particular to reduce the risk of false-positive diagnosis that may simulate disease. This document outlines the principles for the acquisition of motion-free imaging of the aorta in this context.published_or_final_versio