SYMPOSIUM ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN DATA ANALYSIS

The purpose of this symposium is to present recent developments in biomechanical data analyses in two areas. First, current methods used in a dynamical systems approach will be described. Second, two statistical approaches, Principal Components Analysis and Functional Data Analysis, will be presented. The emphasis in this symposium will be on how to use each of these recent analysis techniques

Calibrating ensemble reliability whilst preserving spatial structure

Ensemble forecasts aim to improve decision-making by predicting a set of possible outcomes. Ideally, these would provide probabilities which are both sharp and reliable. In practice, the models, data assimilation and ensemble perturbation systems are all imperfect, leading to deficiencies in the predicted probabilities. This paper presents an ensemble post-processing scheme which directly targets local reliability, calibrating both climatology and ensemble dispersion in one coherent operation. It makes minimal assumptions about the underlying statistical distributions, aiming to extract as much information as possible from the original dynamic forecasts and support statistically awkward variables such as precipitation. The output is a set of ensemble members preserving the spatial, temporal and inter-variable structure from the raw forecasts, which should be beneficial to downstream applications such as hydrological models. The calibration is tested on three leading 15-d ensemble systems, and their aggregation into a simple multimodel ensemble. Results are presented for 12 h, 1° scale over Europe for a range of surface variables, including precipitation. The scheme is very effective at removing unreliability from the raw forecasts, whilst generally preserving or improving statistical resolution. In most cases, these benefits extend to the rarest events at each location within the 2-yr verification period. The reliability and resolution are generally equivalent or superior to those achieved using a Local Quantile-Quantile Transform, an established calibration method which generalises bias correction. The value of preserving spatial structure is demonstrated by the fact that 3×3 averages derived from grid-scale precipitation calibration perform almost as well as direct calibration at 3×3 scale, and much better than a similar test neglecting the spatial relationships. Some remaining issues are discussed regarding the finite size of the output ensemble, variables such as sea-level pressure which are very reliable to start with, and the best way to handle derived variables such as dewpoint depression

Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model—I: description of the system and the impact of radar-derived surface precipitation rates

A key strategy to improve the skill of quantitative predictions of precipitation, as well as hazardous weather such as severe thunderstorms and flash floods is to exploit the use of observations of convective activity (e.g. from radar). In this paper, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) aimed at addressing the problems of forecasting localized weather events with relatively short predictability time scale and based on a 1.5 km grid-length version of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Particular attention is given to the impact of using predicted observations of radar-derived precipitation intensity in the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) used within the EPS. Our initial results based on the use of a 24-member ensemble of forecasts for two summer case studies show that the convective-scale EPS produces fairly reliable forecasts of temperature, horizontal winds and relative humidity at 1 h lead time, as evident from the inspection of rank histograms. On the other hand, the rank histograms seem also to show that the EPS generates too much spread for forecasts of (i) surface pressure and (ii) surface precipitation intensity. These may indicate that for (i) the value of surface pressure observation error standard deviation used to generate surface pressure rank histograms is too large and for (ii) may be the result of non-Gaussian precipitation observation errors. However, further investigations are needed to better understand these findings. Finally, the inclusion of predicted observations of precipitation from radar in the 24-member EPS considered in this paper does not seem to improve the 1-h lead time forecast skill

Asymmetry analysis of the arm segments during forward handspring on floor

Asymmetry in gymnastics underpins successful performance and may also have implications as an injury mechanism; therefore, understanding of this concept could be useful for coaches and clinicians. The aim of this study was to examine kinematic and external kinetic asymmetry of the arm segments during the contact phase of a fundamental skill, the forward handspring on floor. Using a repeated single subject design six female National elite gymnasts (age: 19 ± 1.5 years, mass: 58.64 ± 3.72 kg, height: 1.62 ± 0.41 m), each performed 15 forward handsprings, synchronised 3D kinematic and kinetic data were collected. Asymmetry between the lead and non-lead side arms was quantified during each trial. Significant kinetic asymmetry was observed for all gymnasts (p < 0.005) with the direction of the asymmetry being related to the lead leg. All gymnasts displayed kinetic asymmetry for ground reaction force. Kinematic asymmetry was present for more gymnasts at the shoulder than the distal joints. These findings provide useful information for coaching gymnastics skills, which may subjectively appear to be symmetrical. The observed asymmetry has both performance and injury implications

Microbial Lag Phase can be Indicative of, or Independent From, Cellular Stress

Measures of microbial growth, used as indicators of cellular stress, are sometimes quantified at a single time-point. In reality, these measurements are compound representations of length of lag, exponential growth-rate, and other factors. Here, we investigate whether length of lag phase can act as a proxy for stress, using a number of model systems (Aspergillus penicillioides; Bacillus subtilis; Escherichia coli; Eurotium amstelodami, E. echinulatum, E. halophilicum, and E. repens; Mrakia frigida; Saccharomyces cerevisiae; Xerochrysium xerophilum; Xeromyces bisporus) exposed to mechanistically distinct types of cellular stress including low water activity, other solute-induced stresses, and dehydration-rehydration cycles. Lag phase was neither proportional to germination rate for X. bisporus (FRR3443) in glycerol-supplemented media (r2 = 0.012), nor to exponential growth-rates for other microbes. In some cases, growth-rates varied greatly with stressor concentration even when lag remained constant. By contrast, there were strong correlations for B. subtilis in media supplemented with polyethylene-glycol 6000 or 600 (r2 = 0.925 and 0.961), and for other microbial species. We also analysed data from independent studies of food-spoilage fungi under glycerol stress (Aspergillus aculeatinus and A. sclerotiicarbonarius); mesophilic/psychrotolerant bacteria under diverse, solute-induced stresses (Brochothrix thermosphacta, Enterococcus faecalis, Pseudomonas fluorescens, Salmonella typhimurium, Staphylococcus aureus); and fungal enzymes under acid-stress (Terfezia claveryi lipoxygenase and Agaricus bisporus tyrosinase). These datasets also exhibited diversity, with some strong- and moderate correlations between length of lag and exponential growth-rates; and sometimes none. In conclusion, lag phase is not a reliable measure of stress because length of lag and growth-rate inhibition are sometimes highly correlated, and sometimes not at all

Entropic Tension in Crowded Membranes

Unlike their model membrane counterparts, biological membranes are richly decorated with a heterogeneous assembly of membrane proteins. These proteins are so tightly packed that their excluded area interactions can alter the free energy landscape controlling the conformational transitions suffered by such proteins. For membrane channels, this effect can alter the critical membrane tension at which they undergo a transition from a closed to an open state, and therefore influence protein function \emph{in vivo}. Despite their obvious importance, crowding phenomena in membranes are much less well studied than in the cytoplasm. Using statistical mechanics results for hard disk liquids, we show that crowding induces an entropic tension in the membrane, which influences transitions that alter the projected area and circumference of a membrane protein. As a specific case study in this effect, we consider the impact of crowding on the gating properties of bacterial mechanosensitive membrane channels, which are thought to confer osmoprotection when these cells are subjected to osmotic shock. We find that crowding can alter the gating energies by more than $2\;k_BT$ in physiological conditions, a substantial fraction of the total gating energies in some cases. Given the ubiquity of membrane crowding, the nonspecific nature of excluded volume interactions, and the fact that the function of many membrane proteins involve significant conformational changes, this specific case study highlights a general aspect in the function of membrane proteins.Comment: 20 pages (inclduing supporting information), 4 figures, to appear in PLoS Comp. Bio

Professionalism, Golf Coaching and a Master of Science Degree: A commentary

As a point of reference I congratulate Simon Jenkins on tackling the issue of professionalism in coaching. As he points out coaching is not a profession, but this does not mean that coaching would not benefit from going through a professionalization process. As things stand I find that the stimulus article unpacks some critically important issues of professionalism, broadly within the context of golf coaching. However, I am not sure enough is made of understanding what professional (golf) coaching actually is nor how the development of a professional golf coach can be facilitated by a Master of Science Degree (M.Sc.). I will focus my commentary on these two issues