The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. METHODS: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]). INTERPRETATION: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden

Screening of yeasts associated with food from the Sudan and their possible application for single cell protein and ethanol production

Copy held by FIZ Karlsruhe; available from UB/TIB Hannover / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

Peripheral vascular disease as a predictor of survival after coronary artery bypass grafting: comparison with a matched general population

BACKGROUND: Preoperative left ventricular dysfunction is an established risk factor for early and late mortality after revascularization. This retrospective analysis demonstrates the effects of preoperative ejection fraction on the short-term and long-term survival of patients after coronary artery bypass grafting. METHODS: Early and late mortality were determined retrospectively in 10 626 consecutive patients who underwent isolated coronary bypass between January 1998 and December 2007. The subjects were divided into 3 groups according to their preoperative ejection fraction. Expected survival was estimated by comparison with a general Dutch population group described in the database of the Dutch Central Bureau for Statistics. For each of our groups with a known preoperative ejection fraction, a general Dutch population group was matched for age, sex, and year of operation. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: One hundred twenty-two patients were lost to follow-up. In 219 patients, the preoperative ejection fraction could not be retrieved. In the remaining patients (n = 10 285), the results of multivariate logistic regression and Cox regression analysis identified the ejection fraction as a predictor of early and late mortality. When we compared long-term survival and expected survival, we found a relatively poorer outcome in all subjects with an ejection fraction of < 50%. In subjects with a preoperative ejection fraction of > 50%, long-term survival exceeded expected survival. CONCLUSIONS: The severity of left ventricular dysfunction was associated with poor survival. Compared with the survival of the matched general population, our coronary bypass patients had a worse outcome only if their preoperative ejection fraction was < 50%

A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. IV. Evaluating Consecutive-day Forecasting Patterns

NoA crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active." Building on earlier studies in this series in which we describe the methodology, details, and results of flare forecasting comparison efforts, we focus here on patterns of forecast outcomes (success and failure) over multiday periods. A novel analysis is developed to evaluate forecasting success in the context of catching the first event of flare-active periods and, conversely, correctly predicting declining flare activity. We demonstrate these evaluation methods graphically and quantitatively as they provide both quick comparative evaluations and options for detailed analysis. For the testing interval 2016-2017, we determine the relative frequency distribution of two-day dichotomous forecast outcomes for three different event histories (i.e., event/event, no-event/event, and event/no-event) and use it to highlight performance differences between forecasting methods. A trend is identified across all forecasting methods that a high/low forecast probability on day 1 remains high/low on day 2, even though flaring activity is transitioning. For M-class and larger flares, we find that explicitly including persistence or prior flare history in computing forecasts helps to improve overall forecast performance. It is also found that using magnetic/modern data leads to improvement in catching the first-event/first-no-event transitions. Finally, 15% of major (i.e., M-class or above) flare days over the testing interval were effectively missed due to a lack of observations from instruments away from the Earth-Sun line