Impacts of Land Use and Biofuels Policy on Climate: Temperature and Localized Impacts

http://globalchange.mit.edu/research/publications/reportsThe impact on climate of future land use and energy policy scenarios is explored using two landuse frameworks: (i) Pure Cost Conversion Response (PCCR), or 'extensification', where the price of land is the only constraint to convert land to agricultural production, including growing biofuels, and (ii) Observed Land Supply Response (OLSR), or 'intensification', where legal, environmental and other constraints encourage more intense use of existing managed land. These two land-use frameworks, involving different economic assumptions, were used to explore how the large-scale plantation of cellulosic biofuels to meet global energy demand impacts the future climate. The land cover of the Community Atmospheric Model Version 3.0 (CAM3.0) was manipulated to reflect these two different land use and energy scenarios (i.e. biofuels and no biofuels). Using these landscapes, present and future climate conditions were simulated to assess the land cover impact. In both the intensification and extensification scenarios, the biofuel energy policy increases the land reflectivity of many areas of the globe, indicating that biofuel cropland is replacing darker land-vegetation, which directly leads to cooling. Moreover, the extensification framework—which involves more deforestation than the intensification framework—leads to larger increases in the reflectivity of the Earth's surface and thus a stronger cooling of the land surface in the extratropics. However, the deforestation which occurred in the tropics produced an increase in temperature due to a decrease in evaporative cooling and cloud cover, and an increase in insolation and sensible heating of the near surface. Nevertheless, these surface-air temperature changes associated with land use are smaller than the effect from changes in the trace-gas forcing (i.e. the enhanced greenhouse effect), although over some regions the land-use change can be large enough to counteract the human-induced, radiatively forced warming. A comparison of these biogeophysical impacts on climate of the land use and biofuel policies with the previously published biogeochemical impact of biofuels indicates the dominance of biogeophysical impacts at 2050.This research is funded by a grant from the USA Department of Energy. The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support for this work provided by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change through a number of Federal agencies and industrial sponsors (for the complete list see http://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors/current.html)

The Potential Wind Power Resource in Australia: A New Perspective

Australia’s wind resource is considered to be very good, and the utilization of this renewable energy resource is increasing rapidly: wind power installed capacity increased by 35% from 2006 to 2011 and is predicted to account for over 12% of Australia’s electricity generation in 2030. Due to this growth in the utilization of the wind resource and the increasing importance of wind power in Australia’s energy mix, this study sets out to analyze and interpret the nature of Australia’s wind resources using robust metrics of the abundance, variability and intermittency of wind power density, and analyzes the variation of these characteristics with current and potential wind turbine hub heights. We also assess the extent to which wind intermittency, on hourly or greater timescales, can potentially be mitigated by the aggregation of geographically dispersed wind farms, and in so doing, lessen the severe impact on wind power economic viability of long lulls in wind and power generated. Our results suggest that over much of Australia, areas that have high wind intermittency coincide with large expanses in which the aggregation of turbine output does not mitigate variability. These areas are also geographically remote, some are disconnected from the east coast’s electricity grid and large population centers, which are factors that could decrease the potential economic viability of wind farms in these locations. However, on the eastern seaboard, even though the wind resource is weaker, it is less variable, much closer to large population centers, and there exists more potential to mitigate it’s intermittency through aggregation. This study forms a necessary precursor to the analysis of the impact of large-scale circulations and oscillations on the wind resource at the mesoscale.Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Chang

The Potential Wind Power Resource in Australia: A New Perspective

Australia is considered to have very good wind resources, and the utilization of this renewable energy resource is increasing. Wind power installed capacity increased by 35% from 2006 to 2011 and is predicted to account for over 12% of Australia’s electricity generation in 2030. This study uses a recently published methodology to address the limitations of previous wind resource analyses, and frames the nature of Australia’s wind resources from the perspective of economic viability, using robust metrics of the abundance, variability and intermittency of wind power density, and analyzes whether these differ with higher wind turbine hub heights. We also assess the extent to which wind intermittency can potentially be mitigated by the aggregation of geographically dispersed wind farms. Our results suggest that over much of Australia, areas that have high wind intermittency coincide with large expanses in which the aggregation of turbine output does not mitigate variability. These areas are also geographically remote, some are disconnected from the east coast’s electricity grid and large population centers, and often are not connected or located near enough to high capacity electricity infrastructure, all of which would decrease the potential economic viability of wind farms in these locations. However, on the eastern seaboard, even though the wind resource is weaker, it is less variable, much closer to large population centers, and there exists more potential to mitigate its intermittency through aggregation.The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support for this work provided by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change through a number of federal agencies and industrial sponsors including US Department of Energy grant DE-FG02-94ER61937

Climate impacts of a large-scale biofuels expansion

A global biofuels program will potentially lead to intense pressures on land supply and cause widespread transformations in land use. These transformations can alter the Earth climate system by increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land use changes and by changing the reflective and energy exchange characteristics of land ecosystems. Using an integrated assessment model that links an economic model with climate, terrestrial biogeochemistry, and biogeophysics models, we examined the biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects of possible land use changes from an expanded global second-generation bioenergy program on surface temperatures over the first half of the 21st century. Our integrated assessment model shows that land clearing, especially forest clearing, has two concurrent effects—increased GHG emissions, resulting in surface air warming; and large changes in the land's reflective and energy exchange characteristics, resulting in surface air warming in the tropics but cooling in temperate and polar regions. Overall, these biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects will only have a small impact on global mean surface temperature. However, the model projects regional patterns of enhanced surface air warming in the Amazon Basin and the eastern part of the Congo Basin. Therefore, global land use strategies that protect tropical forests could dramatically reduce air warming projected in these regions.United States. Dept. of Energ

The Biodiversity and Climate Change Virtual Laboratory: Where ecology meets big data

Advances in computing power and infrastructure, increases in the number and size of ecological and environmental datasets, and the number and type of data collection methods, are revolutionizing the field of Ecology. To integrate these advances, virtual laboratories offer a unique tool to facilitate, expedite, and accelerate research into the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. We introduce the uniquely cloud-based Biodiversity and Climate Change Virtual Laboratory (BCCVL), which provides access to numerous species distribution modelling tools; a large and growing collection of biological, climate, and other environmental datasets; and a variety of experiment types to conduct research into the impact of climate change on biodiversity. Users can upload and share datasets, potentially increasing collaboration, cross-fertilisation of ideas, and innovation among the user community. Feedback confirms that the BCCVL's goals of lowering the technical requirements for species distribution modelling, and reducing time spent on such research, are being met

The Biodiversity and Climate Change Virtual Laboratory: How Ecology and Big Data can be utilised in the fight against vector-borne diseases

Advances in computing power and infrastructure, increases in the number and size of ecological and environmental datasets, and the number and type of data collection methods, are revolutionizing the field of Ecology. To integrate these advances, virtual laboratories offer a unique tool to facilitate, expedite, and accelerate research into the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. We introduce the uniquely cloud-based Biodiversity and Climate Change Virtual Laboratory (BCCVL), which provides access to numerous species distribution modelling tools; a large and growing collection of biological, climate, and other environmental datasets, as well as a variety of experiment types to conduct research into the impact of climate change on biodiversity. Users can upload and share datasets, potentially increasing collaboration and cross-fertilisation of ideas and innovation among the user community. Feedback confirms that the BCCVL's goals of lowering the technical requirements for species distribution modelling, and reducing time spent on such research, are being met. We present a case study that illustrates the utility of the BCCVL as a research tool that can be applied to the problem of vector borne diseases and the likelihood of climate change altering their future distribution across Australia. This case study presents the preliminary results of an ensemble modelling experiment which employs multiple (15) different species distribution modelling algorithms to model the distribution of one of the main mosquito vectors of the most common vector borne disease in Australia: Ross River Virus (RRV). We use the BCCVL to do future projection of these models with future climates based on two extreme emissions scenarios, for multiple years. Our results show a large range in both the modelled current distribution, and projected future distribution, of the mosquito species studied. Most models (that were built using different algorithms) show somewhat similar current distributions of the species however there are three models that are obvious outliers. The projected models show a similar range in the distribution of the species, with some models indicating a fewer areas (and also areas with a lower probability of occurrence in specific areas) where the species is likely to be found under a climate change scenario. However, a majority of models show an expanded distribution, with some areas that have a greater probability of the occurrence of this species; this will provide a more robust indication of future distribution for policy makers and planners, than if just one or a few models had been employed. The economic and human health impact of vector borne diseases underline the importance of scientifically sound projections of the future spread of common disease vectors such as mosquitos under various climate change scenarios. This is because such information is essential for policy–makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage outbreaks and potential epidemics of such diseases. The BCCVL has provided the means to effectively and robustly bracket multiple sources of uncertainty in the future spread of RRV: this study focuses on two of these - the future distribution of a primary mosquito vector of the disease under two extreme scenarios of climate change. Research is underway to expand our analysis to take into account more sources of uncertainty: more vector and amplifying host species, emissions scenarios, and future climate projections from a range of different global climate model

The sensitivity of a Global Biome Model (BIOME3) to uncertainty in parameter values

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Measures of abundance.

<p>(a) The mean WPD at 50 m, (b) the change in the mean from 50 m to 80 m and from (c) 50 m to 150 m, (d) median wind power density at 50 m, (e) the change in the median from 50 m to 80 m and from (f) 50 m to 150 m. All units are W m⁻².</p

Comparison of the range of values (m/s) in many areas of the 80 m wind speed map constructed from MERRA data to the one produced by the Australian Government.

<p>The first region encompasses much of the East coast, and includes southeast and northeast QLD, and Tasmania.</p

Anticoincidence (left) and Null-anticoincidence (right) of wind power density, at 50 m.

<p>Units indicate the number of grid points in a ∼1000×1000 km box surrounding the gridpoint in question which are anticoincident to the central gridpoint, which is when the hourly time series of WPD is greater than 200 W m-2 at one of the two points, but not both, for 50% of the total length of the time series.</p