SMERED: A Bayesian Approach to Graphical Record Linkage and De-duplication

We propose a novel unsupervised approach for linking records across arbitrarily many files, while simultaneously detecting duplicate records within files. Our key innovation is to represent the pattern of links between records as a {\em bipartite} graph, in which records are directly linked to latent true individuals, and only indirectly linked to other records. This flexible new representation of the linkage structure naturally allows us to estimate the attributes of the unique observable people in the population, calculate $k$-way posterior probabilities of matches across records, and propagate the uncertainty of record linkage into later analyses. Our linkage structure lends itself to an efficient, linear-time, hybrid Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, which overcomes many obstacles encountered by previously proposed methods of record linkage, despite the high dimensional parameter space. We assess our results on real and simulated data

Evaluating the impact of inequality constraints and parameter uncertainty on optimal portfolio choice

© 2015 Taylor & Francis. We present new analytical results for the impact of portfolio weight constraints on an investor’s optimal portfolio when parameter uncertainty is taken into account. While it is well known that parameter uncertainty and imposing weight constraints results in reduced certainty equivalent returns, in the general case, there are no analytical results. In a special case, commonly used in the funds management literature, we derive analytical expression for the certainty equivalent loss that does not depend on the risk aversion parameter. We illustrate our theoretical results using hedge fund data, from the perspective of a fund-of-fund manager. Our contribution is to formalize the framework to investigate this problem, as well as providing tractable analytical solutions that can be implemented using either simulated or asset manager returns

A Bayesian Approach to Graphical Record Linkage and Deduplication

© 2016 American Statistical Association.We propose an unsupervised approach for linking records across arbitrarily many files, while simultaneously detecting duplicate records within files. Our key innovation involves the representation of the pattern of links between records as a bipartite graph, in which records are directly linked to latent true individuals, and only indirectly linked to other records. This flexible representation of the linkage structure naturally allows us to estimate the attributes of the unique observable people in the population, calculate transitive linkage probabilities across records (and represent this visually), and propagate the uncertainty of record linkage into later analyses. Our method makes it particularly easy to integrate record linkage with post-processing procedures such as logistic regression, capture–recapture, etc. Our linkage structure lends itself to an efficient, linear-time, hybrid Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, which overcomes many obstacles encountered by previously record linkage approaches, despite the high-dimensional parameter space. We illustrate our method using longitudinal data from the National Long Term Care Survey and with data from the Italian Survey on Household and Wealth, where we assess the accuracy of our method and show it to be better in terms of error rates and empirical scalability than other approaches in the literature. Supplementary materials for this article are available online

Widespread association between the ericoid mycorrhizal fungus Rhizoscyphus ericae and a leafy liverwort in the maritime and sub-Antarctic

A recent study identified a fungal isolate from the Antarctic leafy liverwort Cephaloziella varians as the ericoid mycorrhizal associate Rhizoscyphus ericae. However, nothing is known about the wider Antarctic distribution of R. ericae in C. varians, and inoculation experiments confirming the ability of the fungus to form coils in the liverwort are lacking. Using direct isolation and baiting with Vaccinium macrocarpon seedlings, fungi were isolated from C. varians sampled from eight sites across a 1875-km transect through sub- and maritime Antarctica. The ability of an isolate to form coils in aseptically grown C. varians was also tested. Fungi with 98–99% sequence identity to R. ericae internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region and partial large subunit ribosomal (r)DNA sequences were frequently isolated from C. varians at all sites sampled. The EF4/Fung5 primer set did not amplify small subunit rDNA from three of five R. ericae isolates, probably accounting for the reported absence of the fungus from C. varians in a previous study. Rhizoscyphus ericae was found to colonize aseptically-grown C. varians intracellularly, forming hyphal coils. This study shows that the association between R. ericae and C. varians is apparently widespread in Antarctica, and confirms that R. ericae is at least in part responsible for the formation of the coils observed in rhizoids of field-collected C. varians

A Quantum Scattering Interferometer

The collision of two ultra-cold atoms results in a quantum-mechanical superposition of two outcomes: each atom continues without scattering and each atom scatters as a spherically outgoing wave with an s-wave phase shift. The magnitude of the s-wave phase shift depends very sensitively on the interaction between the atoms. Quantum scattering and the underlying phase shifts are vitally important in many areas of contemporary atomic physics, including Bose-Einstein condensates, degenerate Fermi gases, frequency shifts in atomic clocks, and magnetically-tuned Feshbach resonances. Precise measurements of quantum scattering phase shifts have not been possible until now because, in scattering experiments, the number of scattered atoms depends on the s-wave phase shifts as well as the atomic density, which cannot be measured precisely. Here we demonstrate a fundamentally new type of scattering experiment that interferometrically detects the quantum scattering phase shifts of individual atoms. By performing an atomic clock measurement using only the scattered part of each atom, we directly and precisely measure the difference of the s-wave phase shifts for the two clock states in a density independent manner. Our method will give the most direct and precise measurements of ultracold atom-atom interactions and will place stringent limits on the time variations of fundamental constants.Comment: Corrected formatting and typo

Aquatic community response to volcanic eruptions on the Ecuadorian Andean flank: evidence from the palaeoecological record

Aquatic ecosystems in the tropical Andes are under increasing pressure from human modification of the landscape (deforestation and dams) and climatic change (increase of extreme events and 1.5 °C on average temperatures are projected for AD 2100). However, the resilience of these ecosystems to perturbations is poorly understood. Here we use a multi-proxy palaeoecological approach to assess the response of aquatic ecosystems to a major mechanism for natural disturbance, volcanic ash deposition. Specifically, we present data from two Neotropical lakes located on the eastern Andean flank of Ecuador. Laguna Pindo (1°27.132′S–78°04.847′W) is a tectonically formed closed basin surrounded by a dense mid-elevation forest, whereas Laguna Baños (0°19.328′S–78°09.175′W) is a glacially formed lake with an inflow and outflow in high Andean Páramo grasslands. In each lake we examined the dynamics of chironomids and other aquatic and semi-aquatic organisms to explore the effect of thick (> 5 cm) volcanic deposits on the aquatic communities in these two systems with different catchment features. In both lakes past volcanic ash deposition was evident from four large tephras dated to c.850 cal year BP (Pindo), and 4600, 3600 and 1500 cal year BP (Baños). Examination of the chironomid and aquatic assemblages before and after the ash depositions revealed no shift in composition at Pindo, but a major change at Baños occurred after the last event around 1500 cal year BP. Chironomids at Baños changed from an assemblage dominated by Pseudochironomus and Polypedilum nubifer-type to Cricotopus/Paratrichocladius type-II, and such a dominance lasted for approximately 380 years. We suggest that, despite potential changes in the water chemistry, the major effect on the chironomid community resulted from the thickness of the tephra being deposited, which acted to shallow the water body beyond a depth threshold. Changes in the aquatic flora and fauna at the base of the trophic chain can promote cascade effects that may deteriorate the ecosystem, especially when already influenced by human activities, such as deforestation and dams, which is frequent in the high Andes

Ascaroside Expression in Caenorhabditis elegans Is Strongly Dependent on Diet and Developmental Stage

Background: The ascarosides form a family of small molecules that have been isolated from cultures of the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. They are often referred to as “dauer pheromones” because most of them induce formation of long-lived and highly stress resistant dauer larvae. More recent studies have shown that ascarosides serve additional functions as social signals and mating pheromones. Thus, ascarosides have multiple functions. Until now, it has been generally assumed that ascarosides are constitutively expressed during nematode development. Methodology/Principal Findings: Cultures of C. elegans were developmentally synchronized on controlled diets. Ascarosides released into the media, as well as stored internally, were quantified by LC/MS. We found that ascaroside biosynthesis and release were strongly dependent on developmental stage and diet. The male attracting pheromone was verified to be a blend of at least four ascarosides, and peak production of the two most potent mating pheromone components, ascr#3 and asc#8 immediately preceded or coincided with the temporal window for mating. The concentration of ascr#2 increased under starvation conditions and peaked during dauer formation, strongly supporting ascr#2 as the main population density signal (dauer pheromone). After dauer formation, ascaroside production largely ceased and dauer larvae did not release any ascarosides. These findings show that both total ascaroside production and the relative proportions of individual ascarosides strongly correlate with these compounds' stage-specific biological functions. Conclusions/Significance: Ascaroside expression changes with development and environmental conditions. This is consistent with multiple functions of these signaling molecules. Knowledge of such differential regulation will make it possible to associate ascaroside production to gene expression profiles (transcript, protein or enzyme activity) and help to determine genetic pathways that control ascaroside biosynthesis. In conjunction with findings from previous studies, our results show that the pheromone system of C. elegans mimics that of insects in many ways, suggesting that pheromone signaling in C. elegans may exhibit functional homology also at the sensory level. In addition, our results provide a strong foundation for future behavioral modeling studies

The incidence and clinical burden of respiratory syncytial virus disease identified through hospital outpatient presentations in Kenyan children

There is little information that describe the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) associated disease in the tropical African outpatient setting. Methods We studied a systematic sample of children aged <5 years presenting to a rural district hospital in Kenya with acute respiratory infection (ARI) between May 2002 and April 2004. We collected clinical data and screened nasal wash samples for RSV antigen by immunofluorescence. We used a linked demographic surveillance system to estimate disease incidence. Results Among 2143 children tested, 166 (8%) were RSV positive (6% among children with upper respiratory tract infection and 12% among children with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI). RSV was more likely in LRTI than URTI (p<0.001). 51% of RSV cases were aged 1 year or over. RSV cases represented 3.4% of hospital outpatient presentations. Relative to RSV negative cases, RSV positive cases were more likely to have crackles (RR = 1.63; 95% CI 1.34–1.97), nasal flaring (RR = 2.66; 95% CI 1.40–5.04), in-drawing (RR = 2.24; 95% CI 1.47–3.40), fast breathing for age (RR = 1.34; 95% CI 1.03–1.75) and fever (RR = 1.54; 95% CI 1.33–1.80). The estimated incidence of RSV-ARI and RSV-LRTI, per 100,000 child years, among those aged <5 years was 767 and 283, respectively. Conclusion The burden of childhood RSV-associated URTI and LRTI presenting to outpatients in this setting is considerable. The clinical features of cases associated with an RSV infection were more severe than cases without an RSV diagnosis

Cytosine-to-Uracil Deamination by SssI DNA Methyltransferase

The prokaryotic DNA(cytosine-5)methyltransferase M.SssI shares the specificity of eukaryotic DNA methyltransferases (CG) and is an important model and experimental tool in the study of eukaryotic DNA methylation. Previously, M.SssI was shown to be able to catalyze deamination of the target cytosine to uracil if the methyl donor S-adenosyl-methionine (SAM) was missing from the reaction. To test whether this side-activity of the enzyme can be used to distinguish between unmethylated and C5-methylated cytosines in CG dinucleotides, we re-investigated, using a sensitive genetic reversion assay, the cytosine deaminase activity of M.SssI. Confirming previous results we showed that M.SssI can deaminate cytosine to uracil in a slow reaction in the absence of SAM and that the rate of this reaction can be increased by the SAM analogue 5’-amino-5’-deoxyadenosine. We could not detect M.SssI-catalyzed deamination of C5-methylcytosine (m5C). We found conditions where the rate of M.SssI mediated C-to-U deamination was at least 100-fold higher than the rate of m5C-to-T conversion. Although this difference in reactivities suggests that the enzyme could be used to identify C5-methylated cytosines in the epigenetically important CG dinucleotides, the rate of M.SssI mediated cytosine deamination is too low to become an enzymatic alternative to the bisulfite reaction. Amino acid replacements in the presumed SAM binding pocket of M.SssI (F17S and G19D) resulted in greatly reduced methyltransferase activity. The G19D variant showed cytosine deaminase activity in E. coli, at physiological SAM concentrations. Interestingly, the C-to-U deaminase activity was also detectable in an E. coli ung+ host proficient in uracil excision repair