A comparison between tests for changes in the adjustment coefficients in cointegrated systems

In this paper we examine several approaches to detecting changes in the adjustment coefficients in cointegrated VARs. We adopt recursive and rolling techniques as mis-specification tests for the detection of non-constancy and the estimation of the breakpoints. We find that inspection of the recursive eigenvalues is not useful to detect a break in the adjustment coefficients, whilst recursive estimation of the coefficients can only indicate non-constancy, but not the exact breakpoint. Rolling estimation is found to perform better in detecting non-constancy in the parameters and their true value after the breakpoint. However, it only detects a region where the break is likely to occur. To overcome the drawbacks of these techniques, we use an OLS-based sequential test. To assess its performance, we derive its critical values for different sample sizes. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the test has reasonably good power even in moderately sized samples and that it can be used as a graphical device, as it shows a kink at the breakpoint. As a benchmark we use the Kalman filter, of which we analyse the performance on the same data generating processes (DGP)

The Flat Transmission Spectrum of the Super-Earth GJ1214b from Wide Field Camera 3 on the Hubble Space Telescope

Capitalizing on the observational advantage offered by its tiny M dwarf host, we present HST/WFC3 grism measurements of the transmission spectrum of the super-Earth exoplanet GJ1214b. These are the first published WFC3 observations of a transiting exoplanet atmosphere. After correcting for a ramp-like instrumental systematic, we achieve nearly photon-limited precision in these observations, finding the transmission spectrum of GJ1214b to be flat between 1.1 and 1.7 microns. Inconsistent with a cloud-free solar composition atmosphere at 8.2 sigma, the measured achromatic transit depth most likely implies a large mean molecular weight for GJ1214b's outer envelope. A dense atmosphere rules out bulk compositions for GJ1214b that explain its large radius by the presence of a very low density gas layer surrounding the planet. High-altitude clouds can alternatively explain the flat transmission spectrum, but they would need to be optically thick up to 10 mbar or consist of particles with a range of sizes approaching 1 micron in diameter.Comment: 17 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Differences between normal and demineralized dentine pretreated with silver fluoride and potassium iodide after an in vitro challenge by Streptococcus mutans

The document attached has been archived with permission from the Australian Dental Association (8 March 2008). An external link to the publisher’s copy is included.Background: The application of diamine silver fluoride (Ag(NH3)2F) and potassium iodide (KI) to demineralized dentine has been shown to inhibit the growth of Streptococcus mutans. The purpose of this study was to observe the differences between demineralized and non-demineralized dentine treated with AgF/KI. Methods: Thirty-five dentine discs were bonded to the bases of 5mL polycarbonate screw top vials which were filled with nutrient medium, sterilized and placed into the overflow from a continuous culture of S. mutans. Samples were divided as follows: 10 samples of demineralized dentine; 10 samples of demineralized dentine treated with AgF/KI; 5 samples of non-demineralized dentine; and 10 samples of non-demineralized dentine treated with AgF/KI. Following two weeks connected to the Chemostat, an electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) of percentage weights and penetration depths of calcium, phosphorous silver and fluoride was conducted. Bacterial growth was monitored by taking optical density readings of the growth medium in each vial and outer surfaces of the specimens were examined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Results: AgF/KI treatment of demineralized and non-demineralized dentine prevented biofilm formation and reduced further demineralization by S. mutans. AgF/KI treatment of demineralized dentine was more effective in reducing dentine breakdown and the growth of S. mutans. Significantly higher levels of silver and fluoride were deposited within demineralized dentine. Conclusions: A topical treatment with AgF/KI on dentine reduced in vitro caries development and inhibited surface biofilm formation. Reduction of in vitro caries development and viability of S. mutans was more pronounced on the dentine samples that had been demineralized prior to the application of AgF/KI.GM Knight, JM McIntyre, GG Craig, Mulyani, PS Zilm and NJ Gull

GPs' willingness to prescribe aspirin for cancer preventive therapy in Lynch syndrome: a factorial randomised trial investigating factors influencing decisions.

BACKGROUND: The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) 2020 guidelines recommends aspirin for colorectal cancer prevention for people with Lynch syndrome. Strategies to change practice should be informed by understanding the factors influencing prescribing. AIM: To investigate the optimal type and level of information to communicate with GPs to increase willingness to prescribe aspirin. DESIGN AND SETTING: GPs in England and Wales (n = 672) were recruited to participate in an online survey with a 23 factorial design. GPs were randomised to one of eight vignettes describing a hypothetical patient with Lynch syndrome recommended to take aspirin by a clinical geneticist. METHOD: Across the vignettes, the presence or absence of three types of information was manipulated: 1) existence of NICE guidance; 2) results from the CAPP2 trial; 3) information comparing risks/benefits of aspirin. The main effects and all interactions on the primary (willingness to prescribe) and secondary outcomes (comfort discussing aspirin) were estimated. RESULTS: There were no statistically significant main effects or interactions of the three information components on willingness to prescribe aspirin or comfort discussing harms and benefits. In total, 80.4% (540/672) of GPs were willing to prescribe, with 19.7% (132/672) unwilling. GPs with prior awareness of aspirin for preventive therapy were more comfortable discussing the medication than those unaware (P = 0.031). CONCLUSION: It is unlikely that providing information on clinical guidance, trial results, and information comparing benefits and harms will increase aspirin prescribing for Lynch syndrome in primary care. Alternative multilevel strategies to support informed prescribing may be warranted

Can being gay provide a boost in the hiring process? Maybe if the boss is female

Purpose – The purpose of this study was to investigate whether men and women differentially prefer hiring gay and lesbian job applicants relative to equally qualified heterosexual job applicants. Design/methodology/approach – Data were collected from two samples of non-student participants. Each participant evaluated the perceived hirability of an ostensibly real job applicant by reviewing the applicant’s resume. In reality, all participants were randomly assigned to evaluate the same fictitious resume that differed only in the gender and sexual orientation of the applicant. Findings – We find that men perceived gay and lesbian job applicants as less hirable, while women perceived gay and lesbian job applicants as more hirable than heterosexual job applicants. Additionally, we show perceptions of hirability are mediated by perceptions of gay and lesbian job applicants’ competence. Implications – These results show that bias against gays and lesbians is much more nuanced than previous work suggests. One implication is that placing more women in selection roles within organizations could be a catalyst for the inclusion of gay and lesbian employees. Additionally, these results could influence when and how gays and lesbians disclose their gay identities at work. Originality/value –These studies are the first to identify a positive bias in favor of gay and lesbian job applicants. As attitudes toward gays and lesbians become more positive, results like these are important to document as they signal a shift in intergroup relations. These results will also help managers and organizations design selection processes to minimize bias towards applicants. Keywords: gender, sexual orientation, selection, bia

Virtual screening for inhibitors of the human TSLP:TSLPR interaction

The pro-inflammatory cytokine thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP) plays a pivotal role in the pathophysiology of various allergy disorders that are mediated by type 2 helper T cell (Th2) responses, such as asthma and atopic dermatitis. TSLP forms a ternary complex with the TSLP receptor (TSLPR) and the interleukin-7-receptor subunit alpha (IL-7Ra), thereby activating a signaling cascade that culminates in the release of pro-inflammatory mediators. In this study, we conducted an in silico characterization of the TSLP: TSLPR complex to investigate the drugability of this complex. Two commercially available fragment libraries were screened computationally for possible inhibitors and a selection of fragments was subsequently tested in vitro. The screening setup consisted of two orthogonal assays measuring TSLP binding to TSLPR: a BLI-based assay and a biochemical assay based on a TSLP: alkaline phosphatase fusion protein. Four fragments pertaining to diverse chemical classes were identified to reduce TSLP: TSLPR complex formation to less than 75% in millimolar concentrations. We have used unbiased molecular dynamics simulations to develop a Markov state model that characterized the binding pathway of the most interesting compound. This work provides a proof-ofprinciple for use of fragments in the inhibition of TSLP: TSLPR complexation

Non-smooth optimization methods for computation of the conditional value-at-risk and portfolio optimization

We examine numerical performance of various methods of calculation of the Conditional Value-at-risk (CVaR), and portfolio optimization with respect to this risk measure. We concentrate on the method proposed by Rockafellar and Uryasev in (Rockafellar, R.T. and Uryasev, S., 2000, Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Risk, 2, 21-41), which converts this problem to that of convex optimization. We compare the use of linear programming techniques against a non-smooth optimization method of the discrete gradient, and establish the supremacy of the latter. We show that non-smooth optimization can be used efficiently for large portfolio optimization, and also examine parallel execution of this method on computer clusters.<br /

The challenges faced in the design, conduct and analysis of surgical randomised controlled trials

Randomised evaluations of surgical interventions are rare; some interventions have been widely adopted without rigorous evaluation. Unlike other medical areas, the randomised controlled trial (RCT) design has not become the default study design for the evaluation of surgical interventions. Surgical trials are difficult to successfully undertake and pose particular practical and methodological challenges. However, RCTs have played a role in the assessment of surgical innovations and there is scope and need for greater use. This article will consider the design, conduct and analysis of an RCT of a surgical intervention. The issues will be reviewed under three headings: the timing of the evaluation, defining the research question and trial design issues. Recommendations on the conduct of future surgical RCTs are made. Collaboration between research and surgical communities is needed to address the distinct issues raised by the assessmentof surgical interventions and enable the conduct of appropriate and well-designed trials.The Health Services Research Unit is funded by the Scottish Government Health DirectoratesPeer reviewedPublisher PD

Risk of death in the long QT syndrome when a sibling has died

BACKGROUND: Sudden death of a sibling is thought to be associated with greater risk of death in long QT syndrome (LQTS). However, there is no evidence of such an association. OBJECTIVE: This study sought to test the hypothesis that sudden death of a sibling is a risk factor for death or aborted cardiac arrest (ACA) in patients with LQTS. METHODS: We examined all probands and first-degree and second-degree relatives in the International Long QT Registry from birth to age 40 years with QTc >/= 0.45 s. Covariates included sibling death, QTc, gender by age, syncope, and implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) and beta-blocker treatment. End points were (1) severe events (ACA, LQTS-related death) and (2) any cardiac event (syncope, ACA, or LQTS-related death). RESULTS: Of 1915 subjects, 270 had a sibling who died. There were 213 severe events and 829 total cardiac events. More subjects with history of sibling death received beta-blocker therapy. Sibling death was not significantly associated with risk of ACA or LQTS-related death, but was associated with increased risk of syncope. QTc >/= 0.53 s (hazard ratio 2.5, P <.01), history of syncope (hazard ratio 6.1, P <.01), and gender were strongly associated with risk of ACA or LQTS-related death. CONCLUSION: Sudden death of a sibling prompted more aggressive treatment but did not predict risk of death or ACA, whereas QTc >/= 0.53 s, gender, and syncope predicted this risk. All subjects should receive appropriate beta-blocker therapy. The decision to implant an ICD should be based on an individual's own risk characteristics (QTc, gender, and history of syncope)