A comparison between tests for changes in the adjustment coefficients in cointegrated systems

In this paper we examine several approaches to detecting changes in the adjustment coefficients in cointegrated VARs. We adopt recursive and rolling techniques as mis-specification tests for the detection of non-constancy and the estimation of the breakpoints. We find that inspection of the recursive eigenvalues is not useful to detect a break in the adjustment coefficients, whilst recursive estimation of the coefficients can only indicate non-constancy, but not the exact breakpoint. Rolling estimation is found to perform better in detecting non-constancy in the parameters and their true value after the breakpoint. However, it only detects a region where the break is likely to occur. To overcome the drawbacks of these techniques, we use an OLS-based sequential test. To assess its performance, we derive its critical values for different sample sizes. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the test has reasonably good power even in moderately sized samples and that it can be used as a graphical device, as it shows a kink at the breakpoint. As a benchmark we use the Kalman filter, of which we analyse the performance on the same data generating processes (DGP)

Collagen proportionate area correlates with histological stage and predicts clinical events in primary sclerosing cholangitis

Background & Aims: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic cholestatic liver disease in need of accurate biomarkers for stratification and as surrogates for clinical endpoints in trials. Quantitative liver fibrosis assessment by collagen proportionate area (CPA) measurement has been demonstrated to correlate with clinical outcomes in chronic hepatitis C, alcohol-related and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. We aimed to investigate the ability of CPA to quantify liver fibrosis and predict clinical events in PSC. Methods: Biopsies from 101 PSC patients from two European centres were retrospectively assessed by two expert pathologists in tandem, using grading (Ishak and Nakanuma) and staging (Ishak, Nakanuma, Ludwig) systems recently validated to predict clinical events in PSC. CPA was determined by image analysis of picro-Sirius red-stained sections following a standard protocol. We assessed the correlations between CPA, staging and grading and their associations with three outcomes: (1) time to PSC-related death, liver transplant or primary liver cancer; (2) liver transplant-free survival; (3) occurrence of cirrhosis-related clinical manifestations. Results: CPA correlated strongly with histological stage determined by each scoring system (P < .001) and was significantly associated with the three endpoints. Median time to endpoint-1, endpoint-2 and endpoint-3 was shorter in patients with higher CPA, on Kaplan-Meier analyses (P = .011, P = .034 and P = .001, respectively). Conclusion: Quantitative fibrosis assessment by CPA has utility in PSC. It correlates with established histological staging systems and predicts clinical events. CPA may be a useful tool for staging fibrosis and for risk stratification in PSC and should be evaluated further within prospective clinical trials

GPs' willingness to prescribe aspirin for cancer preventive therapy in Lynch syndrome: a factorial randomised trial investigating factors influencing decisions.

BACKGROUND: The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) 2020 guidelines recommends aspirin for colorectal cancer prevention for people with Lynch syndrome. Strategies to change practice should be informed by understanding the factors influencing prescribing. AIM: To investigate the optimal type and level of information to communicate with GPs to increase willingness to prescribe aspirin. DESIGN AND SETTING: GPs in England and Wales (n = 672) were recruited to participate in an online survey with a 23 factorial design. GPs were randomised to one of eight vignettes describing a hypothetical patient with Lynch syndrome recommended to take aspirin by a clinical geneticist. METHOD: Across the vignettes, the presence or absence of three types of information was manipulated: 1) existence of NICE guidance; 2) results from the CAPP2 trial; 3) information comparing risks/benefits of aspirin. The main effects and all interactions on the primary (willingness to prescribe) and secondary outcomes (comfort discussing aspirin) were estimated. RESULTS: There were no statistically significant main effects or interactions of the three information components on willingness to prescribe aspirin or comfort discussing harms and benefits. In total, 80.4% (540/672) of GPs were willing to prescribe, with 19.7% (132/672) unwilling. GPs with prior awareness of aspirin for preventive therapy were more comfortable discussing the medication than those unaware (P = 0.031). CONCLUSION: It is unlikely that providing information on clinical guidance, trial results, and information comparing benefits and harms will increase aspirin prescribing for Lynch syndrome in primary care. Alternative multilevel strategies to support informed prescribing may be warranted

Breast cancer worry in higher-risk women offered preventive therapy: a UK multicentre prospective study

Purpose Women’s worry about developing breast cancer may influence their decision to use preventive therapy. However, the direction of this relationship has been questioned. We prospectively investigated the relationship between breast cancer worry and uptake of preventive therapy. The socio-demographic and clinical factors associated with high breast cancer worry were also investigated. Methods Women at increased risk of developing breast cancer were recruited from clinics across England (n = 408). Participants completed a survey on their breast cancer worry, socio-demographic and clinical factors. Uptake of tamoxifen was recorded at 3 months (n = 258 women, 63.2%). Both primary and sensitivity analyses were conducted using different classifications of low, medium and high worry. Results 39.5% of respondents reported medium breast cancer worry at baseline and 21.2% reported high worry. Ethnic minority women were more likely to report high worry than white women (OR = 3.02, 95%CI 1.02, 8.91, p = 0.046). Women educated below degree level were more likely to report high worry than those with higher education (OR = 2.29, 95%CI 1.28, 4.09, p = 0.005). No statistically significant association was observed between worry and uptake. In the primary analysis, fewer respondents with medium worry at baseline initiated tamoxifen (low worry = 15.5%, medium = 13.5%, high = 15.7%). In the sensitivity analysis, participants with medium worry reported the highest uptake of tamoxifen (19.7%). Conclusions No association was observed between worry and uptake, although the relationship was affected by the categorisation of worry. Standardised reporting of the classification of worry is warranted to allow transparent comparisons across cohorts

Enhancing the Prediction of Lung Cancer Survival Rates Using 2D Features from 3D Scans

Author's accepted manuscript.Available from 18/06/2021.acceptedVersio

A Sparse Stress Model

Force-directed layout methods constitute the most common approach to draw general graphs. Among them, stress minimization produces layouts of comparatively high quality but also imposes comparatively high computational demands. We propose a speed-up method based on the aggregation of terms in the objective function. It is akin to aggregate repulsion from far-away nodes during spring embedding but transfers the idea from the layout space into a preprocessing phase. An initial experimental study informs a method to select representatives, and subsequent more extensive experiments indicate that our method yields better approximations of minimum-stress layouts in less time than related methods.Comment: Appears in the Proceedings of the 24th International Symposium on Graph Drawing and Network Visualization (GD 2016

Benznidazole biotransformation and multiple targets in <i>Trypanosoma</i> cruzi revealed by metabolomics

&lt;b&gt;Background&lt;/b&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; The first line treatment for Chagas disease, a neglected tropical disease caused by the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, involves administration of benznidazole (Bzn). Bzn is a 2-nitroimidazole pro-drug which requires nitroreduction to become active, although its mode of action is not fully understood. In the present work we used a non-targeted MS-based metabolomics approach to study the metabolic response of T. cruzi to Bzn.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Methodology/Principal findings&lt;/b&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Parasites treated with Bzn were minimally altered compared to untreated trypanosomes, although the redox active thiols trypanothione, homotrypanothione and cysteine were significantly diminished in abundance post-treatment. In addition, multiple Bzn-derived metabolites were detected after treatment. These metabolites included reduction products, fragments and covalent adducts of reduced Bzn linked to each of the major low molecular weight thiols: trypanothione, glutathione, γ-glutamylcysteine, glutathionylspermidine, cysteine and ovothiol A. Bzn products known to be generated in vitro by the unusual trypanosomal nitroreductase, TcNTRI, were found within the parasites, but low molecular weight adducts of glyoxal, a proposed toxic end-product of NTRI Bzn metabolism, were not detected.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Conclusions/significance&lt;/b&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Our data is indicative of a major role of the thiol binding capacity of Bzn reduction products in the mechanism of Bzn toxicity against T. cruzi