Density-dependent effects on the weight of female Ascaris lumbricoides infections of humans and its impact on patterns of egg production

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Ascaris lumbricoides </it>exhibits density-dependent egg production, a process which has a marked impact on both the transmission dynamics and the stability of the parasite population. Evidence suggests that the egg production of female <it>Ascaris </it>is also associated with the size of the worm. If worm size is mediated by density-dependent processes then the size of female worms may have a causal impact upon patterns of <it>Ascaris </it>egg production.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We analyse data collected from a cohort of human hosts, and demonstrate that the per host mean weight (a proxy for size) of female <it>Ascaris </it>is dependent on the number of infecting females (worm burden) following a pattern of initial facilitation followed by limitation. Applying a negative binomial (NB) generalized linear model (GLM) and a zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model we confirm that the per host female mean weight is significantly associated with per host egg production. Despite these associations, the mean weight of female <it>Ascaris </it>has little causal impact on patterns of density-dependent egg output. The ZINB model is able to account for the disproportionately large number of zero egg counts within the data and is shown to be a consistently better fit than the NB model. The probability of observing a zero egg count is demonstrated as being negatively associated with both female worm burden and female mean weight.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The mean weight of female <it>Ascaris </it>is statistically significantly associated with egg output, and follows a consistent pattern of facilitation preceding limitation with increasing female worm burden. Despite these relationships, incorporation of female <it>Ascaris </it>mean weight into models of egg output has little effect on patterns of density dependence. The ZINB model is a superior fit to the data than the NB model and provides additional information regarding the mechanisms that result in a zero egg count. The ZINB model is shown to be a useful tool for the analysis of individual-based egg output data.</p

A Monte Carlo Study of Time Varying Coefficient (TVC) Estimation

A number of recent papers have proposed a time-varying-coefficient (TVC) procedure that, in theory, yields consistent parameter estimates in the presence of measurement errors, omitted variables, incorrect functional forms, and simultaneity. The key element of the procedure is the selection of a set of driver variables. With an ideal driver set the procedure is both consistent and efficient. However, in practice it is not possible to know if a perfect driver set exists. We construct a number of Monte Carlo experiments to examine the performance of the methodology under (i) clearly-defined conditions and (ii) a range of model misspecifications. We also propose a new Bayesian search technique for the set of driver variables underlying the TVC methodology. Experiments are performed to allow for incorrectly specified functional form, omitted variables, measurement errors, unknown nonlinearity and endogeneity. In all cases except the last, the technique works well in reasonably small samples. © 2018, The Author(s)

Flow in a slowly-tapering channel with oscillating walls

The flow of a fluid in a channel with walls inclined at an angle to each other is investigated at arbitrary Reynolds number. The flow is driven by an oscillatory motion of the wall incorporating a time-periodic displacement perpendicular to the channel centreline. The gap between the walls varies linearly with distance along the channel and is a prescribed periodic function of time. An approximate solution is constructed assuming that the angle of inclination of the walls is small. At leading order the flow corresponds to that in a channel with parallel, vertically oscillating walls examined by Hall and Papageorgiou \cite{HP}. A careful study of the governing partial differential system for the first order approximation controlling the tapering flow due to the wall inclination is conducted. It is found that as the Reynolds number is increased from zero the tapering flow loses symmetry and undergoes exponential growth in time. The loss of symmetry occurs at a lower Reynolds number than the symmetry-breaking for the parallel-wall flow. A window of asymmetric, time-periodic solutions is found at higher Reynolds number, and these are reached via a quasiperiodic transient from a given set of initial conditions. Beyond this window stability is again lost to exponentially growing solutions as the Reynolds number is increased

Detecting local synchronization in coupled chaotic systems

We introduce a technique to detect and quantify local functional dependencies between coupled chaotic systems. The method estimates the fraction of locally syncronized configurations, in a pair of signals with an arbitrary state of global syncronization. Application to a pair of interacting Rossler oscillators shows that our method is capable to quantify the number of dynamical configurations where a local prediction task is possible, also in absence of global synchronization features

Modeling magnetospheric fields in the Jupiter system

The various processes which generate magnetic fields within the Jupiter system are exemplary for a large class of similar processes occurring at other planets in the solar system, but also around extrasolar planets. Jupiter's large internal dynamo magnetic field generates a gigantic magnetosphere, which is strongly rotational driven and possesses large plasma sources located deeply within the magnetosphere. The combination of the latter two effects is the primary reason for Jupiter's main auroral ovals. Jupiter's moon Ganymede is the only known moon with an intrinsic dynamo magnetic field, which generates a mini-magnetosphere located within Jupiter's larger magnetosphere including two auroral ovals. Ganymede's magnetosphere is qualitatively different compared to the one from Jupiter. It possesses no bow shock but develops Alfv\'en wings similar to most of the extrasolar planets which orbit their host stars within 0.1 AU. New numerical models of Jupiter's and Ganymede's magnetospheres presented here provide quantitative insight into the processes that maintain these magnetospheres. Jupiter's magnetospheric field is approximately time-periodic at the locations of Jupiter's moons and induces secondary magnetic fields in electrically conductive layers such as subsurface oceans. In the case of Ganymede, these secondary magnetic fields influence the oscillation of the location of its auroral ovals. Based on dedicated Hubble Space Telescope observations, an analysis of the amplitudes of the auroral oscillations provides evidence that Ganymede harbors a subsurface ocean. Callisto in contrast does not possess a mini-magnetosphere, but still shows a perturbed magnetic field environment. Callisto's ionosphere and atmospheric UV emission is different compared to the other Galilean satellites as it is primarily been generated by solar photons compared to magnetospheric electrons.Comment: Chapter for Book: Planetary Magnetis

The Legacy of ERA, Privatization and the Policy Ratchet

This article explores the ways in which the neo-liberal impetus toward the privatization of state schooling signalled in the Education Reform Act 1988 (ERA) has become embedded in the English school system. Four main points are made. First, that ERA itself was of huge strategic rather than substantive importance as far as privatization is concerned. Second, by tracing the lineage of privatization from ERA onwards a 'ratchet' effect of small and incremental policy moves can be identified, which have disseminated, embedded and naturalized privatization within public sector provision. Third, that while privatization has been taken up and taken much further by New Labour than it had been by the Conservatives there are differences between the two sets of governments in the role of privatization in education policy and the role of the state. Fourth, the participation of private providers in the planning and delivery of state services has put the private sector at the very heart of policy. At points the article draws upon interviews conducted with private sector providers. © 2008 Sage Publications

How Promising Are "Ultraprocessed" Front-of-Package Labels? A Formative Study with US Adults

High levels of food processing can have detrimental health effects independent of nutrient content. Experts and advocates have proposed adding information about food processing status to front-of-package labeling schemes, which currently exclusively focus on nutrient content. How consumers would perceive "ultraprocessed" labels has not yet been examined. To address this gap, we conducted a within-subjects online experiment with a convenience sample of 600 US adults. Participants viewed a product under three labeling conditions (control, "ultraprocessed" label, and "ultraprocessed" plus "high in sugar" label) in random order for a single product. The "ultraprocessed" label led participants to report thinking more about the risks of eating the product and discouraging them from wanting to buy the product more than the control, despite not grabbing more attention than the control. The "ultraprocessed" plus "high in sugar" labels grabbed more attention, led participants to think more about the risks of eating the product, and discouraged them from wanting to buy the product more than the "ultraprocessed" label alone. "Ultraprocessed" labels may constitute promising messages that could work in tandem with nutrient labels, and further research should examine how they would influence consumers' actual intentions and behaviors

The prototypes of tobacco users scale (Potus) for cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use: Development and validation

Endorsing prototypes of cigarette smokers predicts cigarette smoking, but less is known about prototypes of users of other tobacco products. Our study sought to establish the reliability and validity of a measure of prototypes of smokers and e-cigarette users. Participants were from a national survey of smokers and non-smokers (n = 1414), a randomized clinical trial (RCT) of adult smokers (n = 2149), and adolescent children of adults in the trial (n = 112). The Prototypes of Tobacco Users Scale (POTUS) has four positive adjectives (cool, sexy, smart, and healthy) and four negative adjectives (disgusting, unattractive, immature, and inconsiderate) describing cigarette smokers and e-cigarette users. Confirmatory factor analyses identified a two-factor solution. The POTUS demonstrated strong internal consistency reliability in all three samples (median α = 0.85) and good test–retest reliability among adults in the RCT (median r = 0.61, 1–4 weeks follow-up). In the RCT, smokers more often agreed with negative prototypes for smokers than for e-cigarette users (mean = 2.03 vs. 1.67, p < 0.05); negative prototypes at baseline were also associated with more forgoing of cigarettes and making a quit attempt at the end of the trial (Week 4 follow-up). The POTUS may be useful to public health researchers seeking to design interventions that reduce tobacco initiation or cessation through the manipulation of tobacco user prototypes

Understanding Why Pictorial Cigarette Pack Warnings Increase Quit Attempts

Background: Our randomized trial found that pictorial cigarette pack warnings elicited more quit attempts than text-only warnings. Purpose: In the current study, we sought to identify psychological mechanisms that explain why pictorial cigarette pack warnings change behavior. Methods: In 2014 and 2015, we recruited 2,149 adult smokers in NC and CA, USA. We randomly assigned smokers to receive on their cigarette packs for 4 weeks either a text-only warning (one of the USA's current warnings on the side of cigarette packs) or a pictorial warning (one of the USA's proposed text warnings with pictures on the top half of the front and back of cigarette packs). Results: Pictorial warnings increased attention to, reactions to, and social interactions about cigarette pack warnings (all p < .05). However, pictorial warnings changed almost no belief or attitude measures. Mediators of the impact of pictorial warnings included increased attention, negative affect, social interactions, thinking about the warning and harms of smoking, and intentions to quit (all p < .05). Analyses also found that pictorial warnings led to greater avoidance of the warnings, which was associated with more quit attempts (p < .05). Conclusions: Pictorial warnings increased quit attempts by eliciting aversive reactions and by keeping the message vividly in smokers' minds. Contrary to predictions from several theories of health behavior, the warnings exerted little of their influence through changes in beliefs and attitudes and none of their influence through changes in risk perception. We propose the Tobacco Warnings Model based on these findings