Inadequacy of Existing Clinical Prediction Models for Predicting Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

Background: The performance of emerging transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) clinical prediction models (CPMs) in national TAVI cohorts distinct from those where they have been derived is unknown. This study aimed to investigate the performance of the German Aortic Valve, FRANCE-2, OBSERVANT and American College of Cardiology (ACC) TAVI CPMs compared with the performance of historic cardiac CPMs such as the EuroSCORE and STS-PROM, in a large national TAVI registry. Methods: The calibration and discrimination of each CPM were analyzed in 6676 patients from the UK TAVI registry, as a whole cohort and across several subgroups. Strata included gender, diabetes status, access route, and valve type. Furthermore, the amount of agreement in risk classification between each of the considered CPMs was analyzed at an individual patient level. Results: The observed 30-day mortality rate was 5.4%. In the whole cohort, the majority of CPMs over-estimated the risk of 30-day mortality, although the mean ACC score (5.2%) approximately matched the observed mortality rate. The areas under ROC curve were between 0.57 for OBSERVANT and 0.64 for ACC. Risk classification agreement was low across all models, with Fleiss's kappa values between 0.17 and 0.50. Conclusions: Although the FRANCE-2 and ACC models outperformed all other CPMs, the performance of current TAVI-CPMs was low when applied to an independent cohort of TAVI patients. Hence, TAVI specific CPMs need to be derived outside populations previously used for model derivation, either by adapting existing CPMs or developing new risk scores in large national registries

Drug-Eluting Stents in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: A Prospective Registry Study

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is strongly associated with adverse outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). There are limited data on the effectiveness of drug-eluting stents (DES) in patients with CKD. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Of 3,752 consecutive patients enrolled in the Guthrie PCI Registry between 2001 and 2006, 436 patients with CKD - defined as a creatinine clearance <60 mL/min - were included in this study. Patients who received DES were compared to those who received bare metal stents (BMS). Patients were followed for a mean duration of 3 years after the index PCI to determine the prognostic impact of stent type. Study end-points were all-cause death, myocardial infarction (MI), target vessel revascularization (TVR), stent thrombosis (ST) and the composite of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), defined as death, MI or TVR. Patients receiving DES in our study, by virtue of physician selection, had more stable coronary artery disease and had lower baseline risk of thrombotic or restenotic events. Kaplan-Meier estimates of proportions of patients reaching the end-points were significantly lower for DES vs. BMS for all-cause death (p = 0.0008), TVR (p = 0.029) and MACE (p = 0.0015), but not MI (p = 0.945) or ST (p = 0.88). Multivariable analysis with propensity adjustment demonstrated that DES implantation was an independent predictor of lower rates of all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR] 0.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.25-0.92), TVR (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.27-0.94) and MACE (HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.41-0.94). CONCLUSIONS: In a contemporary PCI registry, selective use of DES in patients with CKD was safe and effective in the long term, with lower risk of all-cause death, TVR and MACE and similar risk of MI and ST as compared with BMS. The mortality benefit may be a result of selection bias and residual confounding, or represent a true finding; a hypothesis that warrants clarification by randomized clinical trials

Pleural fluid soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 as a marker of bacterial infection: a meta-analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pleural infection is a common clinical problem. Its successful treatment depends on rapid diagnosis and early initiation of antibiotics. The measurement of soluble triggering receptor expressed in myeloid cells-1 (sTREM-1) level in pleural effusions has proven to be a valuable diagnostic tool for differentiating bacterial effusions from effusions of other etiologies. Herein, we performed a meta-analysis to assess the accuracy of pleural fluid sTREM-1 in the diagnosis of bacterial infection.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We searched Web of Knowledge and Medline from 1990 through March 2011 for studies reporting diagnostic accuracy data regarding the use of sTREM-1 in the diagnosis of bacterial pleural effusions. Pooled sensitivity and specificity and summary measures of accuracy and Q* were calculated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall, the sensitivity of sTREM-1was 78% (95% CI: 72%-83%); the specificity was 84% (95% CI: 80%-87%); the positive likelihood ratio was 6.0 (95% CI: 3.3-10.7); and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.22 (95% CI: 0.12-0.40). The area under the SROC curve for sTREM-1 was 0.92. Statistical heterogeneity and inconsistency were found for sensitivity (p = 0.015, χ²= 15.73, I²= 61.9%), specificity (p = 0.000, χ²= 29.90, I²= 79.9%), positive likelihood ratio (p = 0.000, χ²= 33.09, I²= 81.9%), negative likelihood ratio (p = 0.008, χ²= 17.25, I²= 65.2%), and diagnostic odds ratio (p = 0.000, χ²= 28.49, I²= 78.9%). A meta-regression analysis performed showed that the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies score (p = 0.3245; RDOR, 4.34; 95% CI, 0.11 to 164.01), the Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy score (p = 0.3331; RDOR, 1.70; 95% CI, 0.44 to 6.52), lack of blinding (p = 0.7439; RDOR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.01 to 33.80), and whether the studies were prospective or retrospective studies (p = 0.2068; RDOR, 7.44; 95% CI, 0.18 to 301.17) did not affect the test accuracy. A funnel plot for publication bias suggested a remarkable trend of publication bias.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our findings suggest that sTREM-1 has a good diagnostic accuracy and may provide a useful adjunctive tool for the diagnosis of bacterial pleural effusions. However, further studies are needed in order to identify any differences in the diagnostic performance of sTREM-1 of parapneumonic effusions and empyemas.</p

In vivo MRI and ex vivo histological assessment of the cardioprotection induced by ischemic preconditioning, postconditioning and remote conditioning in a closed-chest porcine model of reperfused acute myocardial infarction: importance of microvasculature

BACKGROUND: Cardioprotective value of ischemic post- (IPostC), remote (RIC) conditioning in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is unclear in clinical trials. To evaluate cardioprotection, most translational animal studies and clinical trials utilize necrotic tissue referred to the area at risk (AAR) by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). However, determination of AAR by MRI' may not be accurate, since MRI-indices of microvascular damage, i.e., myocardial edema and microvascular obstruction (MVO), may be affected by cardioprotection independently from myocardial necrosis. Therefore, we assessed the effect of IPostC, RIC conditioning and ischemic preconditioning (IPreC; positive control) on myocardial necrosis, edema and MVO in a clinically relevant, closed-chest pig model of AMI. METHODS AND RESULTS: Acute myocardial infarction was induced by a 90-min balloon occlusion of the left anterior descending coronary artery (LAD) in domestic juvenile female pigs. IPostC (6 x 30 s ischemia/reperfusion after 90-min occlusion) and RIC (4 x 5 min hind limb ischemia/reperfusion during 90-min LAD occlusion) did not reduce myocardial necrosis as assessed by late gadolinium enhancement 3 days after reperfusion and by ex vivo triphenyltetrazolium chloride staining 3 h after reperfusion, however, the positive control, IPreC (3 x 5 min ischemia/reperfusion before 90-min LAD occlusion) did. IPostC and RIC attenuated myocardial edema as measured by cardiac T2-weighted MRI 3 days after reperfusion, however, AAR measured by Evans blue staining was not different among groups, which confirms that myocardial edema is not a measure of AAR, IPostC and IPreC but not RIC decreased MVO. CONCLUSION: We conclude that IPostC and RIC interventions may protect the coronary microvasculature even without reducing myocardial necrosis

The role of historical and contemporary processes on phylogeographic structure and genetic diversity in the Northern Cardinal, Cardinalis cardinalis

Background Earth history events such as climate change are believed to have played a major role in shaping patterns of genetic structure and diversity in species. However, there is a lag between the time of historical events and the collection of present-day samples that are used to infer contemporary population structure. During this lag phase contemporary processes such as dispersal or non-random mating can erase or reinforce population differences generated by historical events. In this study we evaluate the role of both historical and contemporary processes on the phylogeography of a widespread North American songbird, the Northern Cardinal, Cardinalis cardinalis. Results Phylogenetic analysis revealed deep mtDNA structure with six lineages across the species\u27 range. Ecological niche models supported the same geographic breaks revealed by the mtDNA. A paleoecological niche model for the Last Glacial Maximum indicated that cardinals underwent a dramatic range reduction in eastern North America, whereas their ranges were more stable in México. In eastern North America cardinals expanded out of glacial refugia, but we found no signature of decreased genetic diversity in areas colonized after the Last Glacial Maximum. Present-day demographic data suggested that population growth across the expansion cline is positively correlated with latitude. We propose that there was no loss of genetic diversity in areas colonized after the Last Glacial Maximum because recent high-levels of gene flow across the region have homogenized genetic diversity in eastern North America. Conclusion We show that both deep historical events as well as demographic processes that occurred following these events are critical in shaping genetic pattern and diversity in C. cardinalis. The general implication of our results is that patterns of genetic diversity are best understood when information on species history, ecology, and demography are considered simultaneously

The role of historical and contemporary processes on phylogeographic structure and genetic diversity in the Northern Cardinal, Cardinalis cardinalis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Earth history events such as climate change are believed to have played a major role in shaping patterns of genetic structure and diversity in species. However, there is a lag between the time of historical events and the collection of present-day samples that are used to infer contemporary population structure. During this lag phase contemporary processes such as dispersal or non-random mating can erase or reinforce population differences generated by historical events. In this study we evaluate the role of both historical and contemporary processes on the phylogeography of a widespread North American songbird, the Northern Cardinal, <it>Cardinalis cardinalis</it>.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Phylogenetic analysis revealed deep mtDNA structure with six lineages across the species' range. Ecological niche models supported the same geographic breaks revealed by the mtDNA. A paleoecological niche model for the Last Glacial Maximum indicated that cardinals underwent a dramatic range reduction in eastern North America, whereas their ranges were more stable in México. In eastern North America cardinals expanded out of glacial refugia, but we found no signature of decreased genetic diversity in areas colonized after the Last Glacial Maximum. Present-day demographic data suggested that population growth across the expansion cline is positively correlated with latitude. We propose that there was no loss of genetic diversity in areas colonized after the Last Glacial Maximum because recent high-levels of gene flow across the region have homogenized genetic diversity in eastern North America.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We show that both deep historical events as well as demographic processes that occurred following these events are critical in shaping genetic pattern and diversity in <it>C. cardinalis</it>. The general implication of our results is that patterns of genetic diversity are best understood when information on species history, ecology, and demography are considered simultaneously.</p

'Crawling in the Flanders mud': Samuel Beckett, war writing and scatological pacifism

This article explores the depiction of wounded soldiers in Samuel Beckett’s novel Mercier and Camier (written in French in 1946, published in 1970, and translated and published in English in 1974). This aspect of the novel is discussed from two perspectives: the Irish military history which Beckett repeatedly invokes in the novel, notably the Boer War and World War I; and the relation between the novel and the ‘war books’ which followed World War I, many of which express pacifist ideals by laying bare the suffering which combatant bodies experience. Drawing attention to the hitherto neglected context of war writing for the image of the wounded soldier in Beckett’s work, this article uses Mercier and Camier to consider the political implications of the author’s allusions to military history following World War II