Evolution of active and polar photospheric magnetic fields during the rise of Cycle 24 compared to previous cycles

The evolution of the photospheric magnetic field during the declining phase and minimum of Cycle 23 and the recent rise of Cycle 24 are compared with the behavior during previous cycles. We used longitudinal full-disk magnetograms from the NSO's three magnetographs at Kitt Peak, the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) Vector Spectro-Magnetograph (VSM), the Spectromagnetograph and the 512-Channel Magnetograph instruments, and longitudinal full-disk magnetograms from the Mt. Wilson 150-foot tower. We analyzed 37 years of observations from these two observatories that have been observing daily, weather permitting, since 1974, offering an opportunity to study the evolving relationship between the active region and polar fields in some detail over several solar cycles. It is found that the annual averages of a proxy for the active region poloidal magnetic field strength, the magnetic field strength of the high-latitude poleward streams, and the time derivative of the polar field strength are all well correlated in each hemisphere. These results are based on statistically significant cyclical patterns in the active region fields and are consistent with the Babcock-Leighton phenomenological model for the solar activity cycle. There was more hemispheric asymmetry in the activity level, as measured by total and maximum active region flux, during late Cycle 23 (after around 2004), when the southern hemisphere was more active, and Cycle 24 up to the present, when the northern hemisphere has been more active, than at any other time since 1974. The active region net proxy poloidal fields effectively disappeared in both hemispheres around 2004, and the polar fields did not become significantly stronger after this time. We see evidence that the process of Cycle 24 field reversal has begun at both poles.Comment: Accepted for publication in Solar Physic

Recovering Joys Law as a Function of Solar Cycle, Hemisphere, and Longitude

Bipolar active regions in both hemispheres tend to be tilted with respect to the East West equator of the Sun in accordance with Joys law that describes the average tilt angle as a function of latitude. Mt. Wilson observatory data from 1917 to 1985 are used to analyze the active-region tilt angle as a function of solar cycle, hemisphere, and longitude, in addition to the more common dependence on latitude. Our main results are as follows: i) We recommend a revision of Joys law toward a weaker dependence on latitude (slope of 0.13 to 0.26) and without forcing the tilt to zero at the Equator. ii) We determine that the hemispheric mean tilt value of active regions varies with each solar cycle, although the noise from a stochastic process dominates and does not allow for a determination of the slope of Joys law on an 11-year time scale. iii) The hemispheric difference in mean tilt angles, 1.1 degrees + 0.27, over Cycles 16 to 21 was significant to a three-sigma level, with average tilt angles in the northern and southern hemispheres of 4.7 degrees + 0.26 and 3.6 degrees + 0.27 respectively. iv) Area-weighted mean tilt angles normalized by latitude for Cycles 15 to 21 anticorrelate with cycle strength for the southern hemisphere and whole-Sun data, confirming previous results by Dasi-Espuig, Solanki, Krivova, et al. (2010, Astron. Astrophys. 518, A7). The northern hemispheric mean tilt angles do not show a dependence on cycle strength. vi) Mean tilt angles do not show a dependence on longitude for any hemisphere or cycle. In addition, the standard deviation of the mean tilt is 29 to 31 degrees for all cycles and hemispheres indicating that the scatter is due to the same consistent process even if the mean tilt angles vary.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures, 3 table

On Pole Assignment and Stabilizability of Neutral Type Systems

In this note we present a systematic approach to the stabilizability problem of linear infinite-dimensional dynamical systems whose infinitesimal generator has an infinite number of instable eigenvalues. We are interested in strong non-exponential stabilizability by a linear feed-back control. The study is based on our recent results on the Riesz basis property and a careful selection of the control laws which preserve this property. The investigation may be applied to wave equations and neutral type delay equations

Photospheric and Subphotospheric Dynamics of Emerging Magnetic Flux

Magnetic fields emerging from the Sun's interior carry information about physical processes of magnetic field generation and transport in the convection zone. Soon after appearance on the solar surface the magnetic flux gets concentrated in sunspot regions and causes numerous active phenomena on the Sun. This paper discusses some properties of the emerging magnetic flux observed on the solar surface and in the interior. A statistical analysis of variations of the tilt angle of bipolar magnetic regions during the emergence shows that the systematic tilt with respect to the equator (the Joy's law) is most likely established below the surface. However, no evidence of the dependence of the tilt angle on the amount of emerging magnetic flux, predicted by the rising magnetic flux rope theories, is found. Analysis of surface plasma flows in a large emerging active region reveals strong localized upflows and downflows at the initial phase of emergence but finds no evidence for large-scale flows indicating future appearance a large-scale magnetic structure. Local helioseismology provides important tools for mapping perturbations of the wave speed and mass flows below the surface. Initial results from SOHO/MDI and GONG reveal strong diverging flows during the flux emergence, and also localized converging flows around stable sunspots. The wave speed images obtained during the process of formation of a large active region, NOAA 10488, indicate that the magnetic flux gets concentrated in strong field structures just below the surface. Further studies of magnetic flux emergence require systematic helioseismic observations from the ground and space, and realistic MHD simulations of the subsurface dynamics.Comment: 21 pages, 15 figures, to appear in Space Science Review

Incidence, Risk Factors, and Outcomes of Patients Who Develop Mucosal Barrier Injury-Laboratory Confirmed Bloodstream Infections in the First 100 Days after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant

Importance: Patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) are at risk for bloodstream infection (BSI) secondary to translocation of bacteria through the injured mucosa, termed mucosal barrier injury-laboratory confirmed bloodstream infection (MBI-LCBI), in addition to BSI secondary to indwelling catheters and infection at other sites (BSI-other). Objective: To determine the incidence, timing, risk factors, and outcomes of patients who develop MBI-LCBI in the first 100 days after HSCT. Design, Setting, and Participants: A case-cohort retrospective analysis was performed using data from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research database on 16875 consecutive pediatric and adult patients receiving a first allogeneic HSCT from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2016. Patients were classified into 4 categories: MBI-LCBI (1481 [8.8%]), MBI-LCBI and BSI-other (698 [4.1%]), BSI-other only (2928 [17.4%]), and controls with no BSI (11768 [69.7%]). Statistical analysis was performed from April 5 to July 17, 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures: Demographic characteristics and outcomes, including overall survival, chronic graft-vs-host disease, and transplant-related mortality (only for patients with malignant disease), were compared among groups. Results: Of the 16875 patients in the study (9737 [57.7%] male; median [range] age, 47 [0.04-82] years) 13686 (81.1%) underwent HSCT for a malignant neoplasm, and 3189 (18.9%) underwent HSCT for a nonmalignant condition. The cumulative incidence of MBI-LCBI was 13% (99% CI, 12%-13%) by day 100, and the cumulative incidence of BSI-other was 21% (99% CI, 21%-22%) by day 100. Median (range) time from transplant to first MBI-LCBI was 8 (<1 to 98) days vs 29 (<1 to 100) days for BSI-other. Multivariable analysis revealed an increased risk of MBI-LCBI with poor Karnofsky/Lansky performance status (hazard ratio [HR], 1.21 [99% CI, 1.04-1.41]), cord blood grafts (HR, 2.89 [99% CI, 1.97-4.24]), myeloablative conditioning (HR, 1.46 [99% CI, 1.19-1.78]), and posttransplant cyclophosphamide graft-vs-host disease prophylaxis (HR, 1.85 [99% CI, 1.38-2.48]). One-year mortality was significantly higher for patients with MBI-LCBI (HR, 1.81 [99% CI, 1.56-2.12]), BSI-other (HR, 1.81 [99% CI, 1.60-2.06]), and MBI-LCBI plus BSI-other (HR, 2.65 [99% CI, 2.17-3.24]) compared with controls. Infection was more commonly reported as a cause of death for patients with MBI-LCBI (139 of 740 [18.8%]), BSI (251 of 1537 [16.3%]), and MBI-LCBI plus BSI (94 of 435 [21.6%]) than for controls (566 of 4740 [11.9%]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, MBI-LCBI, in addition to any BSIs, were associated with significant morbidity and mortality after HSCT. Further investigation into risk reduction should be a clinical and scientific priority in this patient population

The Origin, Early Evolution and Predictability of Solar Eruptions

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were discovered in the early 1970s when space-borne coronagraphs revealed that eruptions of plasma are ejected from the Sun. Today, it is known that the Sun produces eruptive flares, filament eruptions, coronal mass ejections and failed eruptions; all thought to be due to a release of energy stored in the coronal magnetic field during its drastic reconfiguration. This review discusses the observations and physical mechanisms behind this eruptive activity, with a view to making an assessment of the current capability of forecasting these events for space weather risk and impact mitigation. Whilst a wealth of observations exist, and detailed models have been developed, there still exists a need to draw these approaches together. In particular more realistic models are encouraged in order to asses the full range of complexity of the solar atmosphere and the criteria for which an eruption is formed. From the observational side, a more detailed understanding of the role of photospheric flows and reconnection is needed in order to identify the evolutionary path that ultimately means a magnetic structure will erupt

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990�2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95 uncertainty interval 2·9�3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4�3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78�0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1�1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licens