Multimodal agent interfaces and system architectures for health and fitness companions

Multimodal conversational spoken dialogues using physical and virtual agents provide a potential interface to motivate and support users in the domain of health and fitness. In this paper we present how such multimodal conversational Companions can be implemented to support their owners in various pervasive and mobile settings. In particular, we focus on different forms of multimodality and system architectures for such interfaces

Personality, disability-free life years, and life expectancy: Individual participant meta-analysis of 131,195 individuals from 10 cohort studies

Objective: We examined how personality traits of the Five Factor Model were related to years of healthy life years lost (mortality and disability) for individuals and the population. / Method: Participants were 131,195 individuals from 10 cohort studies from Australia, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States (n = 43,935 from seven cohort studies for the longitudinal analysis of disability, assessed using scales of Activities of Daily Living). / Results: Lower Conscientiousness was associated with higher mortality and disability risk, but only when Conscientiousness was below its median level. If the excess risk associated with low Conscientiousness had been absent, population life expectancy would have been 1.3 years longer and disability‐free life 1.0 years longer. Lower emotional stability was related to shorter life expectancy, but only among those in the lowest 15% of the distribution, and disability throughout the distribution: if the excess risk associated with low emotional stability had been absent, population life expectancy would have been 0.4 years longer and disability‐free life 2.4 years longer. / Conclusions: Personality traits of low Conscientiousness and low emotional stability are associated with reduced healthy life expectancy of individuals and population

Empirical evaluation of prediction intervals for cancer incidence

BACKGROUND: Prediction intervals can be calculated for predicting cancer incidence on the basis of a statistical model. These intervals include the uncertainty of the parameter estimates and variations in future rates but do not include the uncertainty of assumptions, such as continuation of current trends. In this study we evaluated whether prediction intervals are useful in practice. METHODS: Rates for the period 1993–97 were predicted from cancer incidence rates in the five Nordic countries for the period 1958–87. In a Poisson regression model, 95% prediction intervals were constructed for 200 combinations of 20 cancer types for males and females in the five countries. The coverage level was calculated as the proportion of the prediction intervals that covered the observed number of cases in 1993–97. RESULTS: Overall, 52% (104/200) of the prediction intervals covered the observed numbers. When the prediction intervals were divided into quartiles according to the number of cases in the last observed period, the coverage level was inversely proportional to the frequency (84%, 52%, 46% and 26%). The coverage level varied widely among the five countries, but the difference declined after adjustment for the number of cases in each country. CONCLUSION: The coverage level of prediction intervals strongly depended on the number of cases on which the predictions were based. As the sample size increased, uncertainty about the adequacy of the model dominated, and the coverage level fell far below 95%. Prediction intervals for cancer incidence must therefore be interpreted with caution

Mental disorders and long-term labour market outcomes : nationwide cohort study of 2 055 720 individuals

Objective To examine the associations between an onset of serious mental disorders before the age of 25 with subsequent employment, income and education outcomes. Methods Nationwide cohort study including individuals (n = 2 055 720) living in Finland between 1988–2015, who were alive at the end of the year they turned 25. Mental disorder diagnosis between ages 15 and 25 was used as the exposure. The level of education, employment status, annual wage or self‐employment earnings, and annual total income between ages 25 and 52 (measurement years 1988–2015) were used as the outcomes. Results All serious mental disorders were associated with increased risk of not being employed and not having any secondary or higher education between ages 25 and 52. The earnings for individuals with serious mental disorders were considerably low, and the annual median total income remained rather stable between ages 25 and 52 for most of the mental disorder groups. Conclusions Serious mental disorders are associated with low employment rates and poor educational outcomes, leading to a substantial loss of total earnings over the life course.Peer reviewe

Association of social isolation, loneliness and genetic risk with incidence of dementia: UK Biobank Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Social isolation and loneliness have been associated with increased risk of dementia, but it is not known whether this risk is modified or confounded by genetic risk of dementia. METHODS: We used the prospective UK Biobank study with 155 070 participants (mean age 64.1 years), including self-reported social isolation and loneliness. Genetic risk was indicated using the polygenic risk score for Alzheimer's disease and the incident dementia ascertained using electronic health records. RESULTS: Overall, 8.6% of participants reported that they were socially isolated and 5.5% were lonely. During a mean follow-up of 8.8 years (1.36 million person years), 1444 (0.9% of the total sample) were diagnosed with dementia. Social isolation, but not loneliness, was associated with increased risk of dementia (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.38 to 1.90). There were no interaction effects between genetic risk and social isolation or between genetic risk and loneliness predicting incident dementia. Of the participants who were socially isolated and had high genetic risk, 4.4% (95% CI 3.4% to 5.5%) were estimated to developed dementia compared with 2.9% (95% CI 2.6% to 3.2%) of those who were not socially isolated but had high genetic risk. Comparable differences were also in those with intermediate and low genetic risk levels. CONCLUSIONS: Socially isolated individuals are at increased risk of dementia at all levels of genetic risk

Structural and functional aspects of social support as predictors of mental and physical health trajectories: Whitehall II cohort study

BACKGROUND: Social support is associated with better health. However, only a limited number of studies have examined the association of social support with health from the adult life course perspective and whether this association is bidirectional. METHODS: Participants (n=6797; 30% women; age range from 40 to 77 years) who were followed from 1989 (phase 2) to 2006 (phase 8) were selected from the ongoing Whitehall II Study. Structural and functional social support was measured at follow-up phases 2, 5 and 7. Mental and physical health was measured at five consecutive follow-up phases (3–8). RESULTS: Social support predicted better mental health, and certain functional aspects of social support, such as higher practical support and higher levels of negative aspects in social relationships, predicted poorer physical health. The association between negative aspects of close relationships and physical health was found to strengthen over the adult life course. In women, the association between marital status and mental health weakened until the age of approximately 60 years. Better mental and physical health was associated with higher future social support. CONCLUSIONS: The strength of the association between social support and health may vary over the adult life course. The association with health seems to be bidirectional

Estimation and projection of the national profile of cancer mortality in China: 1991–2005

There are no national-level data on cancer mortality in China since two surveys in 1973-1975 and 1990-1992 (a 10% sample), but ongoing surveillance systems, based on nonrandom selected populations, give an indication as to the trends for major cancers. Based on a log-linear regression model with Poisson errors, the annual rates of change for 10 cancers and all other cancers combined, by age, sex and urban/rural residence were estimated from the data of the surveillance system of the Center for Health Information and Statistics, covering about 10% of the national population. These rates of change were applied to the survey data of 1990-1992 to estimate national mortality in the year 2000, and to make projections for 2005. Mortality rates for all cancers combined, adjusted for age, are predicted to change little between 1991 and 2005 (-0.8% in men and +2.5% in women), but population growth and ageing will result in an increasing number of deaths, from 1.2 to 1.8 million. The largest predicted increases are for the numbers of female breast (+155.4%) and lung cancers (+112.1% in men, +153.5% in women). For these two sites, mortality rates will almost double. Cancer will make an increasing contribution to the burden of diseases in China in the 21st century. The marked increases in risk of cancers of the lung, female breast and large bowel indicate priorities for prevention and control. The increasing trends in young age groups for cancers of the cervix, lung and female breast suggest that their predicted increases may be underestimated, and that more attention should be paid to strategies for their prevention and control