The effect of adherence to statin therapy on cardiovascular mortality : quantification of unmeasured bias using falsification end-points

Background: To determine the clinical effectiveness of statins on cardiovascular mortality in practice, observational studies are needed. Control for confounding is essential in any observational study. Falsification end-points may be useful to determine if bias is present after adjustment has taken place. Methods: We followed starters on statin therapy in the Netherlands aged 46 to 100 years over the period 1996 to 2012, from initiation of statin therapy until cardiovascular mortality or censoring. Within this group (n = 49,688, up to 16 years of follow-up), we estimated the effect of adherence to statin therapy (0 = completely non-adherent, 1 = fully adherent) on ischemic heart diseases and cerebrovascular disease (ICD10-codes I20-I25 and I60-I69) as well as respiratory and endocrine disease mortality (ICD10-codes J00-J99 and E00-E90) as falsification end points, controlling for demographic factors, socio-economic factors, birth cohort, adherence to other cardiovascular medications, and diabetes using time-varying Cox regression models. Results: Falsification end-points indicated that a simpler model was less biased than a model with more controls. Adherence to statins appeared to be protective against cardiovascular mortality (HR: 0.70, 95 % CI 0.61 to 0.81). Conclusions: Falsification end-points helped detect overadjustment bias or bias due to competing risks, and thereby proved to be a useful technique in such a complex setting

Cavity optomechanics with stoichiometric SiN films

We study high-stress SiN films for reaching the quantum regime with mesoscopic oscillators connected to a room-temperature thermal bath, for which there are stringent requirements on the oscillators' quality factors and frequencies. Our SiN films support mechanical modes with unprecedented products of mechanical quality factor $Q_m$ and frequency $\nu_m$ reaching $Q_{m} \nu_m \simeq2 \times 10^{13}$ Hz. The SiN membranes exhibit a low optical absorption characterized by Im$(n) \lesssim 10^{-5}$ at 935 nm, representing a 15 times reduction for SiN membranes. We have developed an apparatus to simultaneously cool the motion of multiple mechanical modes based on a short, high-finesse Fabry-Perot cavity and present initial cooling results along with future possibilities.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure

Cosmic Evolution of Black Holes and Spheroids. II: Scaling Relations at z=0.36

We combine Hubble Space Telescope images of a sample of 20 Seyfert galaxies at z=0.36 with spectroscopic information from the Keck Telescope to determine the black hole mass - spheroid luminosity relation (M-L), the Fundamental Plane (FP) of the host galaxies and the M-sigma relation. Assuming pure luminosity evolution, we find that the host spheroids had smaller luminosity and stellar velocity dispersion than today for a fixed M. The offsets correspond to Delta log L_B,0=0.40+-0.11+-0.15 (Delta log M = 0.51+-0.14+-0.19) and Delta log sigma = 0.13+-0.03+-0.05 (Delta log M = 0.54+-0.12+-0.21), respectively for the M-L and M-sigma relation. A detailed analysis of known systematic errors and selection effects shows that they cannot account for the observed offset. The data are inconsistent with pure luminosity evolution and the existence of universal and tight scaling relations. To obey the three local scaling relations by z=0 the distant spheroids have to grow their stellar mass by approximately 60% (\Delta log M_sph=0.20+-0.14) in the next 4 billion years. The measured evolution can be expressed as M/ M_sph ~ (1+z)^{1.5+-1.0}. Based on the disturbed morphologies of a fraction of the sample (6/20) we suggest collisional mergers with disk-dominated systems as evolutionary mechanism.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures; accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

The interaction of unidirectional winds with an isolated barchan sand dune

Velocity profile measurements are determined on and around a barchan dune model inserted in the roughness layer on the tunnel floor. A theoretical investigation is made into the factors influencing the rate of sand flow around the dune. Flow visualization techniques are employed in the mapping of streamlines of flow on the dune's surface. Maps of erosion and deposition of sand are constructed for the barchan model, utilizing both flow visualization techniques and friction velocities calculated from the measured velocity profiles. The sediment budget found experimentally for the model is compared to predicted and observed results reported. The comparison shows fairly good agreement between the experimentally determined and predicted sediment budgets

The effect of non-uniform damping on flutter in axial flow and energy harvesting strategies

The problem of energy harvesting from flutter instabilities in flexible slender structures in axial flows is considered. In a recent study, we used a reduced order theoretical model of such a system to demonstrate the feasibility for harvesting energy from these structures. Following this preliminary study, we now consider a continuous fluid-structure system. Energy harvesting is modelled as strain-based damping and the slender structure under investigation lies in a moderate fluid loading range, for which {the flexible structure} may be destabilised by damping. The key goal of this work is to {analyse the effect of damping distribution and intensity on the amount of energy harvested by the system}. The numerical results {indeed} suggest that non-uniform damping distributions may significantly improve the power harvesting capacity of the system. For low damping levels, clustered dampers at the position of peak curvature are shown to be optimal. Conversely for higher damping, harvesters distributed over the whole structure are more effective.Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures, to appear in Proc. R. Soc.

Modeling reverberation mapping data II: dynamical modeling of the Lick AGN Monitoring Project 2008 dataset

We present dynamical modeling of the broad line region (BLR) for a sample of five Seyfert 1 galaxies using reverberation mapping data taken by the Lick AGN Monitoring Project in 2008. By modeling the AGN continuum light curve and H$\beta$ line profiles directly we are able to constrain the geometry and kinematics of the BLR and make a measurement of the black hole mass that does not depend upon the virial factor, $f$, needed in traditional reverberation mapping analysis. We find that the geometry of the BLR is generally a thick disk viewed close to face-on. While the H$\beta$ emission is found to come preferentially from the far side of the BLR, the mean size of the BLR is consistent with the lags measured with cross-correlation analysis. The BLR kinematics are found to be consistent with either inflowing motions or elliptical orbits, often with some combination of the two. We measure black hole masses of $\log_{10}(M_{\rm\,BH}/M_\odot)=6.62^{+0.10}_{-0.13}$ for Arp 151, $7.42^{+0.26}_{-0.27}$ for Mrk 1310, $7.51^{+0.23}_{-0.14}$ for NGC 5548, $6.42^{+0.24}_{-0.18}$ for NGC 6814, and $6.99^{+0.32}_{-0.25}$ for SBS 1116+583A. The $f$ factors measured individually for each AGN are found to correlate with inclination angle, although not with $M_{\rm\,BH}$, $L_{5100}$, or FWHM/$\sigma$ of the emission line profile.Comment: 21 pages, 24 figures, 3 tables, Accepted for publication in MNRAS, corrected masses for NGC 5548 and NGC 6814 in the abstrac

Replication

Replication is conducting a study in another case (or population) in order to assess whether a research finding from previous studies can be confirmed. The aim of replication is to assess the generalizability of a theoretical claim and the “research finding” that is (or is not) confirmed in the replication study is a claim that is derived from the previous studies. Sometimes the term replication is also used for conducting a study in the same case (or population) in order to assess whether the finding from the previous study can be reproduced. To avoid confusion, the latter method of assessing the reliability of a study might better be called duplication. Duplication will not be discussed here

Simulation model of erosion and deposition on a barchan dune

Erosion and deposition over a barchan dune near the Salton Sea, California, are modeled by bookkeeping the quantity of sand in saltation following streamlines of transport. Field observations of near surface wind velocity and direction plus supplemental measurements of the velocity distribution over a scale model of the dune are combined as input to Bagnold type sand transport formulas corrected for slope effects. A unidirectional wind is assumed. The resulting patterns of erosion and deposition compare closely with those observed in the field and those predicted by the assumption of equilibrium (downwind translation of the dune without change in size or geometry). Discrepancies between the simulated results and the observed or predicted erosional patterns appear to be largely due to natural fluctuations in the wind direction. The shape of barchan dunes is a function of grain size, velocity, degree of saturation of the oncoming flow, and the variability in the direction of the oncoming wind. The size of the barchans may be controlled by natural atmospheric scales, by the age of the dunes, or by the upwind roughness. The upwind roughness can be controlled by fixed elements or by sand in the saltation. In the latter case, dune scale is determined by grain size and wind velocity

Pattern matching

Pattern matching is comparing two patterns in order to determine whether they match (i.e., that they are the same) or do not match (i.e., that they differ). Pattern matching is the core procedure of theory-testing with cases. Testing consists of matching an “observed pattern” (a pattern of measured values) with an “expected pattern” (a hypothesis), and deciding whether these patterns match (resulting in a confirmation of the hypothesis) or do not match (resulting in a disconfirmation). Essential to pattern matching (as opposed to pattern recognition, which is a procedure by which theory is built) is that the expected pattern is precisely specified before the matching takes place