Is discrepancy between confidence and spending driven by pessimism or by high aspriations? — Review of the discrepancy between the admitted financial situation and actual spending in Hungary

The opinions of people are expected to forecast their actions, and even major economic institutions rely on this correlation. This research paper examines a case when the opinion of people about their financial situation contradicts their financial-related actions. In 2012 in Hungary the general opinion of people about their financial situation was showing the lowest confidence in the world, with a significant declining trend, reaching an extremely low level. Although the general expectation would be that this pessimism triggers a set-back in consumer spending, figures show that Hungarians were on the other end of the scale regarding their expenditures and were greatly increasing their spending. This raises the question: why do people say they are in such a tough financial situation yet instead of saving they increase their spending? This paper presents a cross-country analysis that reviews the severity of this discrepancy, as well as proves the validity of the question by excluding several alternative explanations, followed by a recommendation and hypotheses for a detailed research to explain the phenomenon

End this depression now!: A review of Paul Krugman's book

This paperback version of the Nobel-Prize winning economist Paul Krugman’s New York Times’ best-seller book reviews if the findings in hardcover version remained well-founded after major political and economic actions (US elections, European austerity measures), and it seemed that the essential message remained unchanged. Krugman aims to answer primarily not how the 2008 crisis happened but what to do to recover and how to avoid similar cases in the future. First of all we must use our knowledge of previous depressions, then accept that we are in a depression and take the proper steps: job creation instead of austerity

On The (honest) truth about dishonesty: How we lie to everyone: Especially ourselves by Dan Ariely

In this book Dan Ariely follows the topic he started to discuss in his prior book, the Predictably Irrational: stating that there is logic and consistency behind irrational human thinking and actions. Ariely goes into more details and leads the general topic of irrationality through a narrow-down approach to the topic of cheating, one of the fields we could observe to work irrationally in some cases, and even within that to cheating within organizational environment

Worried While Prospering – A study of the contradictions between consumer confidence and spending in Hungary [védés előtt]

Understanding how people feel about their financial situation and how they act upon that is a noble challenge to take on, but it is due to this complexity that such research can deliver a significant amount of practical relevance and added value to the scientific disciplines. This study examines the occasional discrepancy between declining consumer sentiment and incresing spending in Hungary. Through a well-constructed deliberative investigation the difficulties of this complex topic were turned into important insights and useful learnings, for theoretical consideration as well as for practical utilization. The first key element was the selection of the phenomenon in the focus of the study. The sentiment of people regarding their financial circumstances and the related actions (like spending or saving) are more than just theoretical concepts: they do have a clear manifestation, one that almost everyone experiences. Due to this background, the research was able to rely on and benefit from solid theoretical foundations and a wide range of empirical data. On the other hand, this wide-spread embeddedness of the topic made it challenging to find a proper perspective for the analysis. This is where the second main achievement was realized. In order to maintain the focus of the research, a deliberative investigation method was applied in a mixed method research form. The benefit of this approach is provided by combining an inductive review of the secondary data, including theoretical foundations and empirical findings, with a deductive primary research that validated the hypotheses and revealed additional insights. The results that emerged from this special combination of methods provided important details about how and why people spend, what makes people discontent with their financial situation, what can caise a discrepancy between higher spending and lower consumer confidence levels, how the measurement can be fine-tuned, as well as holistic recommendations for economic and social decision-makers. The findings of this research should help the comprehension of consumer confidence measures, closing the gap in the scientific literature in the discussions around its predictive power, and avoid the misconceptions in regard to its results and what it means for the society and the economy. The study revealed that the increase of expenditure cannot be fully contributed to people being more content with their financial situation: there are several scenarios in which people increase their spending without actually having better financial circumstances. In parallel to this, people who benefit from trends of prosperity might not contribute proportionally to the general improvement of consumer confidence, especially in times of income inequality. The research also pointed out that it is incorrect to consider the consumer confidence as the manifestation of people’s satisfaction with their financial situation: consumer confidence should rather be looked at as the difference between what people would like to achieve and their perceived situation. The study mapped four key turning points along the scale of aspirations. Furthermore, it revealed a significant amount of relativity in consumer confidence: it is not an absolute level, but strongly depends on how people measure themselves to others and to past circumstances in their life. In addition to these, the study formulated recommendations for the polling institutions on how to fine-tune their consumer confidence measurements, through which it could more accurately represent the actual sentiment of people and lead to better comprehension of the results. It is not only the individual-level insights that contain the real value of the research, but also the holistic findings. The study argued that general financial prosperity in a country is not sufficient to make people content with their circumstances. Should this economic improvement be unevenly distributed, leading to growing income gap and inflation in a society with high level of envy, facing scandals of corruption and fraud while aspiring for justice and equality, and aggravated by an oppression to conform and stay silent about discontent; the combination of such circumstances may result in a record-low consumer confidence. Low consumer confidence should not be taken lightly. Theoretical studies and empirical research confirmed that consumer confidence predicts consumer action in a sense that low confidence forecasts low consumer spending level, which can subsequently have a significant negative impact on the economic performance of a country. When this research was conducted between 2019 and 2022, consumer confidence levels across the world appeared to be fragile, with a potential underlying instability and inclination for collapse. With economic and social turmoils following 2020 becoming more prevalent, the economic, political and social decision-makers are strongly advised to take the findings of this study into account and provide the required amount of emphasis on the needs of the society in order to improve the quality of life and financial satisfaction of individuals and ultimately to assure the economic performance and stability that their countries or unions of countries require

Aspiring to a better life, or surviving on the minimum?: Explaining the discrepancies between Hungarians’ declared and real financial situation

Recent comparison of the consumer confidence of Hungarians with their spending reveals numerous cases when individuals became less confident about their financial situation (expecting it to get worse), yet continued – and even increased – spending, rather contradicting initial expectations. This discrepancy cannot be explained by general, national financial indicators, as income and inflation only provide a partial understanding of the difference between confidence and spending. A review of further determinants highlights the similarities between trends in confidence, poverty, and the social gap, suggesting that the revision and consideration of social benchmarks and previous income trends are significant determinants of consumer confidence and spending

Szelektív szintézismódszerek kifejlesztése vizes közegben átmenetifém-komplexek jelenlétében = Development of selective synthetic methods in aqueous medium in the presence os transition metal complexes

Kutatómunkánkat króm(II) komplexek szelektív szintézisreakcióinak fejlesztésén végeztük. Kidolgoztuk a Nozaki-Hiyama reakció szén-szén kötések enantioszelektív kialakítására alkalmas módszerét karbonil- és halogénszármazékok kapcsolásában, króm(II) komplexek jelenlétében. Tanulmányoztuk szénhidrátszármazékok anomer centrumának reaktivitását CrIIEDTA komplex jelenlétében, semleges-vizes közegben és új módszereket dolgoztunk ki glikálok és C-glikozidok előállítására. Természetes aminosavak króm(II) komplexeinek királis információját aminok enantioszelektív szintézisére alkalmaztuk. Tanulmányoztuk az enantioszelektív autokatalízis törvényszerűségeit, empirikus összefüggést dolgoztunk ki a királis erősítés jellemzésére. | Selective synthetic reactions could be developed in our research work in the present of chromium(II) complexes. The Nozaki-Hiyama reaction could be developed for enantioselective carbon-carbon coupling in the reactions of carbonyl- and halogen derivatives using chromium(II) complexes. Reactivity of the anomeric centre of carbohydrate derivatives was investigated with CrIIEDTA complex in neutral aqueous medium and new methods could be developed for preparation of glycals and C-glycosides. Amino acid induced enantioselective amine synthesis could be developed in the presence of Cr(II) in aqueous medium. The principles of the enantioselective autocatalytic reactions could be investigated and empirical relation proposed for the chiral amplification

Asymmetric Synthesis by Chromium(II) Amino Acid Complexes

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