Association between age of cannabis initiation and gray matter covariance networks in recent onset psychosis

Cannabis use during adolescence is associated with an increased risk of developing psychosis. According to a current hypothesis, this results from detrimental effects of early cannabis use on brain maturation during this vulnerable period. However, studies investigating the interaction between early cannabis use and brain structural alterations hitherto reported inconclusive findings. We investigated effects of age of cannabis initiation on psychosis using data from the multicentric Personalized Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management (PRONIA) and the Cannabis Induced Psychosis (CIP) studies, yielding a total sample of 102 clinically-relevant cannabis users with recent onset psychosis. GM covariance underlies shared maturational processes. Therefore, we performed source-based morphometry analysis with spatial constraints on structural brain networks showing significant alterations in schizophrenia in a previous multisite study, thus testing associations of these networks with the age of cannabis initiation and with confounding factors. Earlier cannabis initiation was associated with more severe positive symptoms in our cohort. Greater gray matter volume (GMV) in the previously identified cerebellar schizophrenia-related network had a significant association with early cannabis use, independent of several possibly confounding factors. Moreover, GMV in the cerebellar network was associated with lower volume in another network previously associated with schizophrenia, comprising the insula, superior temporal, and inferior frontal gyrus. These findings are in line with previous investigations in healthy cannabis users, and suggest that early initiation of cannabis perturbs the developmental trajectory of certain structural brain networks in a manner imparting risk for psychosis later in life

General psychopathology links burden of recent life events and psychotic symptoms in a network approach

Recent life events have been implicated in the onset and progression of psychosis. However, psychological processes that account for the association are yet to be fully understood. Using a network approach, we aimed to identify pathways linking recent life events and symptoms observed in psychosis. Based on previous literature, we hypothesized that general symptoms would mediate between recent life events and psychotic symptoms. We analyzed baseline data of patients at clinical high risk for psychosis and with recent-onset psychosis (n = 547) from the Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management (PRONIA) study. In a network analysis, we modeled links between the burden of recent life events and all individual symptoms of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale before and after controlling for childhood trauma. To investigate the longitudinal associations between burden of recent life events and symptoms, we analyzed multiwave panel data from seven timepoints up to month 18. Corroborating our hypothesis, burden of recent life events was connected to positive and negative symptoms through general psychopathology, specifically depression, guilt feelings, anxiety and tension, even after controlling for childhood trauma. Longitudinal modeling indicated that on average, burden of recent life events preceded general psychopathology in the individual. In line with the theory of an affective pathway to psychosis, recent life events may lead to psychotic symptoms via heightened emotional distress. Life events may be one driving force of unspecific, general psychopathology described as characteristic of early phases of the psychosis spectrum, offering promising avenues for interventions

Basic Symptoms Are Associated With Age in Patients With a Clinical High-Risk State for Psychosis: Results From the PRONIA Study

In community studies, both attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) and basic symptoms (BS) were more frequent but less clinically relevant in children and adolescents compared to adults. In doing so, they displayed differential age thresholds that were around age 16 for APS, around age 18 for perceptive BS, and within the early twenties for cognitive BS. Only the age effect has previously been studied and replicated in clinical samples for APS. Thus, we examined the reported age effect on and age thresholds of 14 criteria-relevant BS in a patient sample at clinical-high risk of psychosis (N = 261, age 15-40 yrs.), recruited within the European multicenter PRONIA-study. BS and the BS criteria, "Cognitive Disturbances" (COGDIS) and "Cognitive-perceptive BS" (COPER), were assessed with the "Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument, Adult version" (SPI-A). Using logistic regressions, prevalence rates of perceptive and cognitive BS, and of COGDIS and COPER, as well as the impact of social and role functioning on the association between age and BS were studied in three age groups (15-18 years, 19-23 years, 24-40 years). Most patients (91.2%) reported any BS, 55.9% any perceptive and 87.4% any cognitive BS. Furthermore, 56.3% met COGDIS and 80.5% COPER. Not exhibiting the reported differential age thresholds, both perceptive and cognitive BS, and, at trend level only, COPER were less prevalent in the oldest age group (24-40 years); COGDIS was most frequent in the youngest group (15-18 years). Functional deficits did not better explain the association with age, particularly in perceptive BS and cognitive BS meeting the frequency requirement of BS criteria. Our findings broadly confirmed an age threshold in BS and, thus, the earlier assumed link between presence of BS and brain maturation processes. Yet, age thresholds of perceptive and cognitive BS did not differ. This lack of differential age thresholds might be due to more pronounced the brain abnormalities in this clinical sample compared to earlier community samples. These might have also shown in more frequently occurring and persistent BS that, however, also resulted from a sampling toward these, i.e., toward COGDIS. Future studies should address the neurobiological basis of CHR criteria in relation to age

Basic Symptoms Are Associated With Age in Patients With a Clinical High-Risk State for Psychosis: Results From the PRONIA Study

In community studies, both attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) and basic symptoms (BS) were more frequent but less clinically relevant in children and adolescents compared to adults. In doing so, they displayed differential age thresholds that were around age 16 for APS, around age 18 for perceptive BS, and within the early twenties for cognitive BS. Only the age effect has previously been studied and replicated in clinical samples for APS. Thus, we examined the reported age effect on and age thresholds of 14 criteria-relevant BS in a patient sample at clinical-high risk of psychosis (N = 261, age 15–40 yrs.), recruited within the European multicenter PRONIA-study. BS and the BS criteria, “Cognitive Disturbances” (COGDIS) and “Cognitive-perceptive BS” (COPER), were assessed with the “Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument, Adult version” (SPI-A). Using logistic regressions, prevalence rates of perceptive and cognitive BS, and of COGDIS and COPER, as well as the impact of social and role functioning on the association between age and BS were studied in three age groups (15–18 years, 19–23 years, 24–40 years). Most patients (91.2%) reported any BS, 55.9% any perceptive and 87.4% any cognitive BS. Furthermore, 56.3% met COGDIS and 80.5% COPER. Not exhibiting the reported differential age thresholds, both perceptive and cognitive BS, and, at trend level only, COPER were less prevalent in the oldest age group (24–40 years); COGDIS was most frequent in the youngest group (15–18 years). Functional deficits did not better explain the association with age, particularly in perceptive BS and cognitive BS meeting the frequency requirement of BS criteria. Our findings broadly confirmed an age threshold in BS and, thus, the earlier assumed link between presence of BS and brain maturation processes. Yet, age thresholds of perceptive and cognitive BS did not differ. This lack of differential age thresholds might be due to more pronounced the brain abnormalities in this clinical sample compared to earlier community samples. These might have also shown in more frequently occurring and persistent BS that, however, also resulted from a sampling toward these, i.e., toward COGDIS. Future studies should address the neurobiological basis of CHR criteria in relation to age

Multimodal Machine Learning Workflows for Prediction of Psychosis in Patients With Clinical High-Risk Syndromes and Recent-Onset Depression

Importance Diverse models have been developed to predict psychosis in patients with clinical high-risk (CHR) states. Whether prediction can be improved by efficiently combining clinical and biological models and by broadening the risk spectrum to young patients with depressive syndromes remains unclear. Objectives To evaluate whether psychosis transition can be predicted in patients with CHR or recent-onset depression (ROD) using multimodal machine learning that optimally integrates clinical and neurocognitive data, structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI), and polygenic risk scores (PRS) for schizophrenia; to assess models' geographic generalizability; to test and integrate clinicians' predictions; and to maximize clinical utility by building a sequential prognostic system. Design, Setting, and Participants This multisite, longitudinal prognostic study performed in 7 academic early recognition services in 5 European countries followed up patients with CHR syndromes or ROD and healthy volunteers. The referred sample of 167 patients with CHR syndromes and 167 with ROD was recruited from February 1, 2014, to May 31, 2017, of whom 26 (23 with CHR syndromes and 3 with ROD) developed psychosis. Patients with 18-month follow-up (n = 246) were used for model training and leave-one-site-out cross-validation. The remaining 88 patients with nontransition served as the validation of model specificity. Three hundred thirty-four healthy volunteers provided a normative sample for prognostic signature evaluation. Three independent Swiss projects contributed a further 45 cases with psychosis transition and 600 with nontransition for the external validation of clinical-neurocognitive, sMRI-based, and combined models. Data were analyzed from January 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures Accuracy and generalizability of prognostic systems. Results A total of 668 individuals (334 patients and 334 controls) were included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 25.1 [5.8] years; 354 [53.0%] female and 314 [47.0%] male). Clinicians attained a balanced accuracy of 73.2% by effectively ruling out (specificity, 84.9%) but ineffectively ruling in (sensitivity, 61.5%) psychosis transition. In contrast, algorithms showed high sensitivity (76.0%-88.0%) but low specificity (53.5%-66.8%). A cybernetic risk calculator combining all algorithmic and human components predicted psychosis with a balanced accuracy of 85.5% (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 86.4%). In comparison, an optimal prognostic workflow produced a balanced accuracy of 85.9% (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 87.3%) at a much lower diagnostic burden by sequentially integrating clinical-neurocognitive, expert-based, PRS-based, and sMRI-based risk estimates as needed for the given patient. Findings were supported by good external validation results. Conclusions and RelevanceThese findings suggest that psychosis transition can be predicted in a broader risk spectrum by sequentially integrating algorithms' and clinicians' risk estimates. For clinical translation, the proposed workflow should undergo large-scale international validation.Question Can a transition to psychosis be predicted in patients with clinical high-risk states or recent-onset depression by optimally integrating clinical, neurocognitive, neuroimaging, and genetic information with clinicians' prognostic estimates? Findings In this prognostic study of 334 patients and 334 control individuals, machine learning models sequentially combining clinical and biological data with clinicians' estimates correctly predicted disease transitions in 85.9% of cases across geographically distinct patient populations. The clinicians' lack of prognostic sensitivity, as measured by a false-negative rate of 38.5%, was reduced to 15.4% by the sequential prognostic model. Meaning These findings suggest that an individualized prognostic workflow integrating artificial and human intelligence may facilitate the personalized prevention of psychosis in young patients with clinical high-risk syndromes or recent-onset depression.</p

Towards clinical application of prediction models for transition to psychosis: A systematic review and external validation study in the PRONIA sample

A multitude of prediction models for a first psychotic episode in individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis have been proposed, but only rarely validated. We identified transition models based on clinical and neuropsychological data through a registered systematic literature search and evaluated their external validity in 173 CHRs from the Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management (PRONIA) study. Discrimination performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and compared to the prediction of clinical raters. External discrimination performance varied considerably across the 22 identified models (AUC 0.40-0.76), with two models showing good discrimination performance. None of the tested models significantly outperformed clinical raters (AUC = 0.75). Combining predictions of clinical raters and the best model descriptively improved discrimination performance (AUC = 0.84). Results show that personalized prediction of transition in CHR is potentially feasible on a global scale. For implementation in clinical practice, further rounds of external validation, impact studies, and development of an ethical framework is necessary

SINGLE-SUBJECT PREDICTION OF FUNCTIONAL OUTCOMES ACROSS DIAGNOSTIC GROUPS USING CLINICAL DATA

Abstract Background Psychotic disorders are associated with serious deterioration in functioning even before the first psychotic episode. Also on clinical high risk (CHR) states of developing a first psychotic episode, several studies reported a decreased global functioning. In a considerable proportion of CHR individuals, functional deterioration remains even after (transient) remission of symptomatic risk indicators. Furthermore, deficits in functioning cause immense costs for the health care system and are often more debilitating for individuals than positive symptoms. However in the past, CHR research has mostly focused on clinical outcomes like transition. Prediction of functioning in CHR populations has received less attention. Therefore, the current study aims at predicting functioning in CHR individuals at a single subject level applying multi pattern recognition to clinical data. Patients with a first depressive episode who frequently have persistent functional deficits comparable to patients in the CHR state were investigated in addition. Methods PRONIA (‘Personalized Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management’) is a prospective collaboration project funded by the European Union under the 7th Framework Programme (grant agreement n°602152). Considering a broad set of variables (MRI, clinical data, neurocognition, genomics and other blood derived parameters) as well as advanced statistical methods, PRONIA aims at developing an innovative multivariate prognostic tool enabling an individualized prediction of illness trajectories and outcome. 11 university centers in five European countries and in Australia (Munich, Basel, Birmingham, Cologne, Düsseldorf, Münster, Melbourne, Milan, Udine, Bari, Turku) participate in the evaluation of three clinical groups (subjects clinically at high risk of developing a psychosis [CHR], patients with a recent onset psychosis [ROP] and patients with a recent onset depression [ROD]) as well as healthy controls. In the current study, we analysed data of 114 CHR and 106 ROD patients. Functioning was measured by the ‘Global Functioning: Social and Role’ Scales (GF S/R). In a repeated, nested cross validation framework we trained a l1-regularized SVM to predict good versus bad outcome. Multivariate pattern recognition analysis allowed to identify most predictive variables from a multitude of clinical, environmental as well as sociodemographic potential predictors assessed in PRONIA. Results Based on the 5 to 20 identified most predictive features, prediction models revealed a balanced accuracy (BAC) up to 77/72 for social functioning in CHR/ROD patients and up to 73/69 for role functioning. These models showed satisfying performance of BACs up to 69/63 for social functioning and 67/60 for role functioning in an independent test sample. As expected, prior functioning levels were identified as main predictive factor but also distinct protective and risk factors were selected into the prediction models. Discussion Results suggest that especially prediction of the multi-faceted construct of role functioning could benefit from inclusion of a rich set of clinical variables. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study that has validated clinical prediction models of functioning in an independent test sample. Identification of predictive variables enables a much more efficient prognostic process. Moreover, understanding the mechanisms underlying functional decline and its illness related pattern might enable an improved definition of targets for intervention. Future research should aim at further maximisation of prediction accuracy and cross-centre generalisation capacity. In addition, other functioning outcomes as well as clinical outcomes need to be focused on

CLINICAL PREDICTION MODELS FOR TRANSITION TO PSYCHOSIS: AN EXTERNAL VALIDATION STUDY IN THE PRONIA SAMPLE

Abstract Background A multitude of clinical models to predict transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) have been proposed. However, only limited efforts have been made to systematically compare these models and to validate their performance in independent samples. Therefore, in this study we identified psychosis risk models based on information readily obtainable in general clinical settings, such as clinical and neuropsychological data, and compared their performance in the PRONIA study (Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management, www.pronia.eu) as an independent sample. Methods Of the 278 CHR participants in the PRONIA sample, 150 had available data until month 18 and were included in the validation of eleven psychosis prediction models identified through systematic literature search. Discrimination performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and compared to the performance of the prognosis of clinical raters. Psychosocial functioning was explored as an alternative outcome. Results Discrimination performance varied considerably across models (AUC ranging from 0.42 to 0.79). High model performance was associated with the inclusion of neurocognitive variables as predictors. Low model performance was associated with predictors based on dichotomized variables. Clinical raters performed comparable to the best data-driven models (AUC = 0.75). Combining raters’ prognosis and model-based predictions improved discrimination performance (AUC = 0.84), particularly for less experienced raters. One of the tested models predicted transition to psychosis and psychosocial outcomes comparably well. Discussion The present external validation study highlights the benefit of enriching clinical information with neuropsychological data in predicting transition to psychosis satisfactorily and with good generalizability across samples. Integration of data-driven risk models and clinical expertise may improve clinical decision-making in CHR for psychosis, particularly for less experienced raters. This external validation study provides an important step toward early intervention and the personalized treatment of psychotic disorders