Stock Market Volatility, Risk Attitude and the Demand for Money in the UK

Is stock market volatility an important determinant of money demand in the UK? If yes, what is the driving force behind that effect? In a cointegration framework, we find that volatility in share prices is an important positive determinant of money demand, alongside standard variables and the stock price level. By studying different stock market indexes effects, we find that the risk aversion of investors is an important force behind the effect, implying that the effect is due to investors’ flight to safer assets in times of volatile stock prices

Lower cardiorespiratory fitness contributes to increased insulin resistance and fasting glycaemia in middle-aged South Asian compared with European men living in the UK

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: This study aimed to determine the extent to which increased insulin resistance and fasting glycaemia in South Asian men, compared with white European men, living in the UK, was due to lower cardiorespiratory fitness (maximal oxygen uptake [[Formula: see text]]) and physical activity. METHODS: One hundred South Asian and 100 age- and BMI-matched European men without diagnosed diabetes, aged 40–70 years, had fasted blood taken for measurement of glucose concentration, HOMA-estimated insulin resistance (HOMA(IR)), plus other risk factors, and underwent assessment of physical activity (using accelerometry), [Formula: see text], body size and composition, and demographic and other lifestyle factors. For 13 South Asian and one European man, HbA(1c) levels were >6.5% (>48 mmol/mol), indicating potential undiagnosed diabetes; these men were excluded from the analyses. Linear regression models were used to determine the extent to which body size and composition, fitness and physical activity variables explained differences in HOMA(IR) and fasting glucose between South Asian and European men. RESULTS: HOMA(IR) and fasting glucose were 67% (p < 0.001) and 3% (p < 0.018) higher, respectively, in South Asians than Europeans. Lower [Formula: see text], lower physical activity and greater total adiposity in South Asians individually explained 68% (95% CI 45%, 91%), 29% (11%, 46%) and 52% (30%, 80%), respectively, and together explained 83% (50%, 119%) (all p < 0.001) of the ethnic difference in HOMA(IR). Lower [Formula: see text] and greater total adiposity, respectively, explained 61% (9%, 111%) and 39% (9%, 76%) (combined effect 63% [8%, 115%]; all p < 0.05) of the ethnic difference in fasting glucose. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Lower cardiorespiratory fitness is a key factor associated with the excess insulin resistance and fasting glycaemia in middle-aged South Asian, compared with European, men living in the UK. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00125-013-2969-y) contains peer-reviewed but unedited supplementary material, which is available to authorised users

Reliability and validity of three questionnaires measuring context-specific sedentary behaviour and associated correlates in adolescents, adults and older adults

BACKGROUND: Reliable and valid measures of total sedentary time, context-specific sedentary behaviour (SB) and its potential correlates are useful for the development of future interventions. The purpose was to examine test-retest reliability and criterion validity of three newly developed questionnaires on total sedentary time, context-specific SB and its potential correlates in adolescents, adults and older adults. METHODS: Reliability and validity was tested in six different samples of Flemish (Belgium) residents. For the reliability study, 20 adolescents, 22 adults and 20 older adults filled out the age-specific SB questionnaire twice. Test-retest reliability was analysed using Kappa coefficients, Intraclass Correlation Coefficients and/or percentage agreement, separately for the three age groups. For the validity study, data were retrieved from 62 adolescents, 33 adults and 33 older adults, with activPAL as criterion measure. Spearman correlations and Bland-Altman plots (or non-parametric approach) were used to analyse criterion validity, separately for the three age groups and for weekday, weekend day and average day. RESULTS: The test-retest reliability for self-reported total sedentary time indicated following values: ICC = 0.37-0.67 in adolescents; ICC = 0.73-0.77 in adults; ICC = 0.68-0.80 in older adults. Item-specific reliability results (e.g. context-specific SB and its potential correlates) showed good-to-excellent reliability in 67.94%, 68.90% and 66.38% of the items in adolescents, adults and older adults respectively. All items belonging to sedentary-related equipment and simultaneous SB showed good reliability. The sections of the questionnaire with lowest reliability were: context-specific SB (adolescents), potential correlates of computer use (adults) and potential correlates of motorized transport (older adults). Spearman correlations between self-reported total sedentary time and the activPAL were different for each age group: rho = 0.02-0.42 (adolescents), rho = 0.06-0.52 (adults), rho = 0.38-0.50 (older adults). Participants over-reported total sedentary time (except for weekend day in older adults) compared to the activPAL, for weekday, weekend day and average day respectively by +57.05%, +46.29%, +53.34% in adolescents; +40.40%, +19.15%, +32.89% in adults; +10.10%, -6.24%, +4.11% in older adults. CONCLUSIONS: The questionnaires showed acceptable test-retest reliability and criterion validity. However, over-reporting of total SB was noticeable in adolescents and adults. Nevertheless, these questionnaires will be useful in getting context-specific information on SB

Validity of the international physical activity questionnaire and the Singapore prospective study program physical activity questionnaire in a multiethnic urban Asian population

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Physical activity patterns of a population remain mostly assessed by the questionnaires. However, few physical activity questionnaires have been validated in Asian populations. We previously utilized a combination of different questionnaires to assess leisure time, transportation, occupational and household physical activity in the Singapore Prospective Study Program (SP2). The International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) has been developed for a similar purpose. In this study, we compared estimates from these two questionnaires with an objective measure of physical activity in a multi-ethnic Asian population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Physical activity was measured in 152 Chinese, Malay and Asian Indian adults using an accelerometer over five consecutive days, including a weekend. Participants completed both the physical activity questionnaire in SP2 (SP2PAQ) and IPAQ long form. 43subjects underwent a second set of measurements on average 6 months later to assess reproducibility of the questionnaires and the accelerometer measurements. Spearman correlations were used to evaluate validity and reproducibility and correlations for validity were corrected for within-person variation of accelerometer measurements. Agreement between the questionnaires and the accelerometer measurements was also evaluated using Bland Altman plots.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The corrected correlation with accelerometer estimates of energy expenditure from physical activity was better for the SP2PAQ (vigorous activity: r = 0.73; moderate activity: r = 0.27) than for the IPAQ (vigorous activity: r = 0.31; moderate activity: r = 0.15). For moderate activity, the corrected correlation between SP2PAQ and the accelerometer was higher for Chinese (r = 0.38) and Malays (r = 0.57) than for Indians (r = -0.09). Both questionnaires overestimated energy expenditure from physical activity to a greater extent at higher levels of physical activity than at lower levels of physical activity. The reproducibility for moderate activity (accelerometer: r = 0.68; IPAQ: r = 0.58; SP2PAQ: r = 0.55) and vigorous activity (accelerometer: 0.52; IPAQ: r = 0.38; SP2PAQ: r = 0.75) was moderate to high for all instruments.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The agreement between IPAQ and accelerometer measurements of energy expenditure from physical activity was poor in our Asian study population. The SP2PAQ showed good validity and reproducibility for vigorous activity, but performed less well for moderate activity particularly in Indians. Further effort is needed to develop questionnaires that better capture moderate activity in Asian populations.</p

Effects of a web-based personalized intervention on physical activity in European adults: a randomized controlled trial

Background: The high prevalence of physical inactivity worldwide calls for innovative and more effective ways to promote physical activity (PA). There are limited objective data on the effectiveness of Web-based personalized feedback on increasing PA in adults. Objective: It is hypothesized that providing personalized advice based on PA measured objectively alongside diet, phenotype, or genotype information would lead to larger and more sustained changes in PA, compared with nonpersonalized advice. Methods: A total of 1607 adults in seven European countries were randomized to either a control group (nonpersonalized advice, Level 0, L0) or to one of three personalized groups receiving personalized advice via the Internet based on current PA plus diet (Level 1, L1), PA plus diet and phenotype (Level 2, L2), or PA plus diet, phenotype, and genotype (Level 3, L3). PA was measured for 6 months using triaxial accelerometers, and self-reported using the Baecke questionnaire. Outcomes were objective and self-reported PA after 3 and 6 months. Results: While 1270 participants (85.81% of 1480 actual starters) completed the 6-month trial, 1233 (83.31%) self-reported PA at both baseline and month 6, but only 730 (49.32%) had sufficient objective PA data at both time points. For the total cohort after 6 months, a greater improvement in self-reported total PA (P=.02) and PA during leisure (nonsport) (P=.03) was observed in personalized groups compared with the control group. For individuals advised to increase PA, we also observed greater improvements in those two self-reported indices (P=.006 and P=.008, respectively) with increased personalization of the advice (L2 and L3 vs L1). However, there were no significant differences in accelerometer results between personalized and control groups, and no significant effect of adding phenotypic or genotypic information to the tailored feedback at month 3 or 6. After 6 months, there were small but significant improvements in the objectively measured physical activity level (P<.05), moderate PA (P<.01), and sedentary time (P<.001) for individuals advised to increase PA, but these changes were similar across all groups. Conclusions: Different levels of personalization produced similar small changes in objective PA. We found no evidence that personalized advice is more effective than conventional “one size fits all” guidelines to promote changes in PA in our Web-based intervention when PA was measured objectively. Based on self-reports, PA increased to a greater extent with more personalized advice. Thus, it is crucial to measure PA objectively in any PA intervention study

Repeatability and validity of a standardised maximal step-up test for leg function-a diagnostic accuracy study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Objectively assessed physical performance is a strong predictor for morbidity and premature death and there is an increasing interest in the role of sarcopenia in many chronic diseases. There is a need for robust and valid functional tests in clinical practice. Therefore, the repeatability and validity of a newly developed maximal step up test (MST) was assessed.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The MST, assessing maximal step-up height (MSH) in 3-cm increments, was evaluated in 60 healthy middle-aged subjects, 30 women and 30 men. The repeatability of MSH and the correlation between MSH and isokinetic knee extension peak torque (IKEPT), self-reported physical function (SF-36, PF), patient demographics and self-reported physical activity were investigated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The repeatability between occasions and between testers was 6 cm. MSH (range 12-45 cm) was significantly correlated to IKEPT, (<it>r </it>= 0.68, <it>P </it>< 0.001), SF-36 PF score, (<it>r </it>= 0.29, <it>P </it>= 0.03), sex, age, weight and BMI. The results also show that MSH above 32 cm discriminates subjects in our study with no limitation in self-reported physical function.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The standardised MST is considered a reliable leg function test for clinical practice. The MSH was related to knee extension strength and self-reported physical function. The precision of the MST for identification of limitations in physical function needs further investigation.</p

One size doesn’t fit all: cross-sectional associations between neighborhood walkability, crime and physical activity depends on age and sex of residents

Abstract Background Low-income African American adults are disproportionately affected by obesity and are also least likely to engage in recommended levels of physical activity (Flegal et al. JAMA 303(3):235-41, 2010; Tucker et al. Am J Prev Med 40(4):454-61, 2011). Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) is an important factor for weight management and control, as well as for reducing disease risk (Andersen et al. Lancet 368(9532):299-304, 2006; Boreham and Riddoch J Sports Sci 19(12):915-29, 2001; Carson et al. PLoS One 8(8):e71417, 2013). While neighborhood greenspace and walkability have been associated with increased MVPA, evidence also suggests that living in areas with high rates of crime limits MVPA. Few studies have examined to what extent the confluence of neighborhood greenspace, walkability and crime might impact MVPA in low-income African American adults nor how associations may vary by age and sex. Methods In 2013 we collected self-reported data on demographics, functional limitations, objective measures of MVPA (accelerometry), neighborhood greenspace (geographic information system), and walkability (street audit) in 791 predominantly African-American adults (mean age 56 years) living in two United States (U.S.) low-income neighborhoods. We also acquired data from the City of Pittsburgh on all crime events within both neighborhoods. Exposure: To examine cross-sectional associations of neighborhood-related variables (i.e., neighborhood greenspace, walkability and crime) with MVPA, we used zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Additionally, we examined potential interactions by age (over 65 years) and sex on relationships between neighborhood variables and MVPA. Results Overall, residents engaged in very little to no MVPA regardless of where they lived. However, for women, but not men, under the age of 65 years, living in more walkable neighborhoods was associated with more time engaged in MVPA in (β = 0.55, p = 0.007) as compared to their counterparts living in less walkable areas. Women and men age 65 years and over spent very little time participating in MVPA regardless of neighborhood walkability. Neither greenspace nor crime was associated with MVPA in age-sex subgroups. Conclusions Neighborhood walkability may play a stronger role on MVPA than accessible greenspace or crime in low-income urban communities. Walkability may differentially impact residents depending on their age and sex, which suggests tailoring public health policy design and implementation according to neighborhood demographics to improve activity for all.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/135725/1/12889_2016_Article_3959.pd

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian metaregression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0-65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0-71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8-48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6-56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. Funding Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation