Future climate change and its impact on runoff generation from the debris-covered Inylchek glaciers, central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan

The heavily debris-covered Inylchek glaciers in the central Tian Shan are the largest glacier system in the Tarim catchment. It is assumed that almost 50% of the discharge of Tarim River are provided by glaciers. For this reason, climatic changes, and thus changes in glacier mass balance and glacier discharge are of high impact for the whole region. In this study, a conceptual hydrological model able to incorporate discharge from debris-covered glacier areas is presented. To simulate glacier melt and subsequent runoff in the past (1970/1971-1999/2000) and future (2070/2071-2099/2100), meteorological input data were generated based on ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 global climate model projections. The hydrological model HBV-LMU was calibrated by an automatic calibration algorithm using runoff and snow cover information as objective functions. Manual fine-tuning was performed to avoid unrealistic results for glacier mass balance. The simulations show that annual runoff sums will increase significantly under future climate conditions. A sensitivity analysis revealed that total runoff does not decrease until the glacier area is reduced by 43%. Ice melt is the major runoff source in the recent past, and its contribution will even increase in the coming decades. Seasonal changes reveal a trend towards enhanced melt in spring, but a change from a glacial-nival to a nival-pluvial runoff regime will not be reached until the end of this century.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Prospective evaluation of quality of life effects in patients undergoing palliative radiotherapy for brain metastases

Background: Recently published results of quality of life (QoL) studies indicated different outcomes of palliative radiotherapy for brain metastases. This prospective multi-center QoL study of patients with brain metastases was designed to investigate which QoL domains improve or worsen after palliative radiotherapy and which might provide prognostic information. Methods: From 01/2007-01/2009, n=151 patients with previously untreated brain metastases were recruited at 14 centers in Germany and Austria. Most patients (82 %) received whole-brain radiotherapy. QoL was measured with the EORTC-QLQ-C15-PAL and brain module BN20 before the start of radiotherapy and after 3 months. Results: At 3 months, 88/142 (62 %) survived. Nine patients were not able to be followed up. 62 patients (70.5 % of 3-month survivors) completed the second set of questionnaires. Three months after the start of radiotherapy QoL deteriorated significantly in the areas of global QoL, physical function, fatigue, nausea, pain, appetite loss, hair loss, drowsiness, motor dysfunction, communication deficit and weakness of legs. Although the use of corticosteroid at 3 months could be reduced compared to pre-treatment (63 % vs. 37 %), the score for headaches remained stable. Initial QoL at the start of treatment was better in those alive than in those deceased at 3 months, significantly for physical function, motor dysfunction and the symptom scales fatigue, pain, appetite loss and weakness of legs. In a multivariate model, lower Karnofsky performance score, higher age and higher pain ratings before radiotherapy were prognostic of 3-month survival. Conclusions: Moderate deterioration in several QoL domains was predominantly observed three months after start of palliative radiotherapy for brain metastases. Future studies will need to address the individual subjective benefit or burden from such treatment. Baseline QoL scores before palliative radiotherapy for brain metastases may contain prognostic information

Wertigkeit der 18F-Fluordesoxyglucose-PET/CT-Diagnostik in der Dignitätsbeurteilung des Pleuraergusses bei Patienten mit Malignomen

Hintergrund und Fragestellung: Die Dignitätsbeurteilung der Pleuraergüsse und der Pleuraprozesse ist von großer klinischer Relevanz. Vor diesem Hintergrund wurde die vorliegende Arbeit konzipiert, die der Frage nachging, ob das PET/CT zum Dignitätsnachweis eines Pleuraergusses bei Patienten mit Malignom einen Beitrag leisten kann. Material und Methodik: Vom 1.4.2002 bis zum 31.12.2004 wurden bei 2856 18F-FDG-PET/CT-Bildgebung durchgeführt. 70 Patienten mit einem Pleuraerguss sowie histologischer Begutachtung wurden eingeschlossen. Ergebnisse: Es konnte kein eindeutiger Zusammenhang zwischen der PET/CT- Bildgebung und bildmorphologischen Kriterien für das Auftreten eines malignen Pleuraergusses werden. Schlussfolgerung: Aufgrund der niedrigen Sensitivität und Spezifität leistet das 18F-FDG-PET/CT keinen Beitrag in der Diginitätsbeurteilung von Pleuraergüs¬sen. Die 18-FDG-PET/CT-Untersuchung konnte jedoch bei 24,9 % (17/70) der Patienten neue Tumormanifestationen detektieren, so dass in diesen Fällen das Therapieregime aufgrund dieser Untersuchung geändert werden musste

Future Climate Change and Its Impact on Runoff Generation from the Debris-Covered Inylchek Glaciers, Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan

The heavily debris-covered Inylchek glaciers in the central Tian Shan are the largest glacier system in the Tarim catchment. It is assumed that almost 50% of the discharge of Tarim River are provided by glaciers. For this reason, climatic changes, and thus changes in glacier mass balance and glacier discharge are of high impact for the whole region. In this study, a conceptual hydrological model able to incorporate discharge from debris-covered glacier areas is presented. To simulate glacier melt and subsequent runoff in the past (1970/1971–1999/2000) and future (2070/2071–2099/2100), meteorological input data were generated based on ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 global climate model projections. The hydrological model HBV-LMU was calibrated by an automatic calibration algorithm using runoff and snow cover information as objective functions. Manual fine-tuning was performed to avoid unrealistic results for glacier mass balance. The simulations show that annual runoff sums will increase significantly under future climate conditions. A sensitivity analysis revealed that total runoff does not decrease until the glacier area is reduced by 43%. Ice melt is the major runoff source in the recent past, and its contribution will even increase in the coming decades. Seasonal changes reveal a trend towards enhanced melt in spring, but a change from a glacial-nival to a nival-pluvial runoff regime will not be reached until the end of this century