On simulation-based approaches to risk measurement in mortality with specific reference to Poisson Lee-Carter modelling

This paper provides a comparative study of simulation strategies for assessing risk in mortality rate predictions and associated estimates of life expectancy and annuity values in both period and cohort frameworks

Pressure and heat flux results from the space shuttle/external fuel tank interaction test at Mach numbers 16 and 19

Heat transfer rates and pressures were measured on a 0.0175-scale model of the space shuttle external tank (ET), model MCR0200. Tests were conducted with the ET model separately and while mated with a 0.0175-scale model of the orbiter, model 21-OT (Grumman). The tests were conducted in the AEDC-VKF Hypervelocity Wind Tunnel (F) at Mach numbers 16 and 19. The primary data consisted of the interaction heating rates experienced by the ET while mated with the orbiter in the flight configuration. Data were taken for a range of Reynolds numbers from 50,000 to 65,000 under laminar flow conditions

The management of de-cumulation risks in a defined contribution environment

The aim of the paper is to lay the theoretical foundations for the construction of a flexible tool that can be used by pensioners to find optimal investment and consumption choices in the distribution phase of a defined contribution pension scheme. The investment/consumption plan is adopted until the time of compulsory annuitization, taking into account the possibility of earlier death. The effect of the bequest motive and the desire to buy a higher annuity than the one purchasable at retirement are included in the objective function. The mathematical tools provided by dynamic programming techniques are applied to find closed form solutions: numer-ical examples are also presented. In the model, the trade-off between the different desires of the individual regarding consumption and final annuity can be dealt with by choosing appropriate weights for these factors in the setting of the problem. Conclusions are twofold. Firstly, we find that there is a natural time-varying target for the size of the fund, which acts as a sort of safety level for the needs of the pensioner. Secondly, the personal preferences of the pensioner can be translated into optimal choices, which in turn affect the distribution of the consumption path and of the final annuity

Longevity-contingent deferred life annuities

Considering the substantial systematic longevity risk threatening annuity providers’ solvency, indexing benefits on actual mortality improvements appears to be an efficient risk management tool, as discussed in Denuit et al. (2011) and Richter and Weber (2011). Whereas these papers consider indexing annuity payments, the present work suggests that the length of the deferment period could also be subject to revision, providing longevity-contingent deferred life annuities

Pension schemes versus real estate

The demographic, economic and social changes that have characterized the last decades, and the dramatic financial crisis that has taken place since 2008, have led to a demand for structural changes in the pension sector and a growing interest in individual pension products. Hence the need, for most elderly people, to liquidate their fixed assets, which are usually the homes in which they live. This highlights products such as reverse mortgages and domestic reversibility plans. Within this context, we propose a contractual scheme where an immediate life annuity is obtained by paying a single-premium in the form of real estate rights (RERs), for example by transferring to an insurer the property title of a house or a similar realty, while keeping its usufruct or a restricted bundle of rights. The level of the installments depends on the fair value of the transferred RER at the contract’s issue, the life expectancy of the insured and the expected growth rate of the real estate market value. The contract design is developed by considering the control of the financial risk inherent in the contract itself, because of the prospective changes in the value of the RERs, and the level of the insurer’s leverage. Finally, we provide some numerical evidence of the proposed contractual structure, in order to compare the level of the installments according to the house return forecasts in different European countries