On the use and misuse of climate change projections in international development

Climate resilience is increasingly prioritized by international development agencies and national governments. However, current approaches to informing communities of future climate risk are problematic. The predominant focus on end-of-century projections neglects more pressing development concerns, which relate to the management of shorter-term risks and climate variability, and constitutes a substantial opportunity cost for the limited financial and human resources available to tackle development challenges. When a long-term view genuinely is relevant to decisionmaking, much of the information available is not fit for purpose. Climate model projections are able to capture many aspects of the climate system and so can be relied upon to guide mitigation plans and broad adaptation strategies, but the use of these models to guide local, practical adaptation actions is unwarranted. Climate models are unable to represent future conditions at the degree of spatial, temporal, and probabilistic precision with which projections are often provided, which gives a false impression of confidence to users of climate change information. In this article, we outline these issues, review their history, and provide a set of practical steps for both the development and climate scientist communities to consider. Solutions to mobilize the best available science include a focus on decision-relevant timescales, an increased role for model evaluation and expert judgment and the integration of climate variability into climate change service

Population change in breeding boreal waterbirds in a 25-year perspective : What characterises winners and losers?

Understanding drivers of variation and trends in biodiversity change is a general scientific challenge, but also crucial for conservation and management. Previous research shows that patterns of increase and decrease are not always consistent at different spatial scales, calling for approaches combining the latter. We here explore the idea that functional traits of species may help explaining divergent population trends. Complementing a previous community level study, we here analyse data about breeding waterbirds on 58 wetlands in boreal Fennoscandia, covering gradients in latitude as well as trophic status. We used linear mixed models to address how change in local abundance over 25 years in 25 waterbird species are associated with life history traits, diet, distribution, breeding phenology, and habitat affinity. Mean abundance increased in 10 species from 1990/1991 to 2016, whereas it decreased in 15 species. Local population increases were associated with species that are early breeders and have small clutches, an affinity for luxurious wetlands, an herbivorous diet, and a wide breeding range rather than a southern distribution. Local decreases, by contrast, were associated with species having large clutches and invertivorous diet, as well as being late breeders and less confined to luxurious wetlands. The three species occurring on the highest number of wetlands all decreased in mean abundance. The fact that early breeders have done better than late fits well with previous research about adaptability to climate change, that is, response to earlier springs. We found only limited support for the idea that life history traits are good predictors of wetland level population change. Instead, diet turned out to be a strong candidate for an important driver of population change, as supported by a general decrease of invertivores and a concomitant increase of large herbivores. In a wider perspective, future research needs to address whether population growth of large-bodied aquatic herbivores affects abundance of co-occurring invertivorous species, and if so, if this is due to habitat alteration, or to interference or exploitative competition.Peer reviewe

Capturing Desire: Rhetorical Strategies and the Affectivity of Discourse

In this article I argue that psychoanalytical theory can help us understand the emotional force of political rhetoric. I undertake a theoretical enquiry into the method of interpreting political speeches as strategies of affective persuasion. Both rhetorical and psychoanalytical studies converge in their concern with the production of ‘plausible stories’ that aim to fold psychic investments into political judgements. To capture desire, I claim, political rhetoric must articulate ‘symptomatic beliefs’ in relation to wider situational exigencies. I sketch three distinct psychoanalytical approaches, each of which emphasises a different scenario of unconscious organisation where rhetorical strategies are pertinent: namely Freudian, Kleinian, and Lacanian approaches. These are then applied to the example of a controversial rhetorical intervention – Enoch Powell’s infamous Birmingham speech of 1968 – to demonstrate the various potential focii when undertaking analysis

Scenario-Driven Supply Chain Charaterization Using a Multi-Dimensional Approach

Extreme disruptive events, such as the volcano eruption in Iceland, the Japanese tsunami, and the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as constant changes in customers’ needs and expectations, have forced supply chains to continuously adapt to new environments. Consequently, it is paramount to understand the supply chain characteristics for possible future scenarios, in order to know how to respond to threats and take advantage of the opportunities that the next years will bring. This chapter focuses on describing the characteristics of the supply chain in each of the six macro-scenarios presented in Sardesai et al. (2020b), as final stage of the scenario building methodology. Supply chains for each scenario are characterized in eight dimensions: Products and Services, Supply Chain Paradigm, Sourcing and Distribution, Technology Level, Supply Chain Configuration, Manufacturing Systems, Sales Channel, and Sustainability