Patterns and dynamics of European vegetation change over the last 15000 years

Aim Palaeoecological reconstructions document past vegetation change, with estimates of fast shifts in species distributions. The resulting rates of plant spread are often not matched by model simulations of climate-driven vegetation dynamics. Genetic surveys of extant plant populations document directions of the post-glacial spread of trees, challenging traditional interpretations. Our aim is to examine an updated continental pollen data set from Europe in the light of the new ideas about vegetation dynamics emerging from genetic research and vegetation modelling studies. Location Europe. Methods We use pollen data from the European Pollen Database (EPD) to construct interpolated maps of pollen percentages documenting changes in the distribution and abundance of major plant genera and the grass family in Europe over the last 15,000years. Results Our analyses confirm high rates of post-glacial spread with at least 1000myear(-1) for Corylus, Ulmus and Alnus and average rates of 400myear(-1) for Tilia, Quercus, Fagus and Carpinus. The late Holocene expansions of Picea and Fagus populations in many European regions cannot be explained by migrational lag. Both taxa shift their population centres towards the Atlantic coast suggesting that climate may have played a role in the timing of their expansions. The slowest rates of spread were reconstructed for Abies. Main conclusions The calculated rates of post-glacial plant spread are higher in Europe than those from North America, which may be due to more rapid shifts in climate mediated by the Gulf Stream and westerly winds. Late Holocene anthropogenic land use practices in Europe had major effects on individual taxa, which in combination with climate change contributed to shifts in areas of abundance and dominance. The high rates of spread calculated from the European pollen data are consistent with rapid tracking of early Holocene climate change by common tree species, documenting that plants can spread fast tracing their climate space, regardless of their dispersal strategy

Cardiovascular disease, risk factors and heart rate variability in the elderly general population: Design and objectives of the CARdiovascular disease, Living and Ageing in Halle (CARLA) Study

BACKGROUND: The increasing burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in the ageing population of industrialized nations requires an intensive search for means of reducing this epidemic. In order to improve prevention, detection, therapy and prognosis of cardiovascular diseases on the population level in Eastern Germany, it is necessary to examine reasons for the East-West gradient of CVD morbidity and mortality, potential causal mechanisms and prognostic factors in the elderly. Psychosocial and nutritional factors have previously been discussed as possible causes for the unexplained part of the East-West gradient. A reduced heart rate variability appears to be associated with cardiovascular disease as well as with psychosocial and other cardiovascular risk factors and decreases with age. Nevertheless, there is a lack of population-based data to examine the role of heart rate variability and its interaction with psychosocial and nutritional factors regarding the effect on cardiovascular disease in the ageing population. There also is a paucity of epidemiological data describing the health situation in Eastern Germany. Therefore, we conduct a population-based study to examine the distribution of CVD, heart rate variability and CVD risk factors and their associations in an elderly East German population. This paper describes the design and objectives of the CARLA Study. METHODS/DESIGN: For this study, a random sample of 45–80 year-old inhabitants of the city of Halle (Saale) in Eastern Germany was drawn from the population registry. By the end of the baseline examination (2002–2005), 1750 study participants will have been examined. A multi-step recruitment strategy aims at achieving a 70 % response rate. Detailed information is collected on own and family medical history, socioeconomic, psychosocial, behavioural and biomedical factors. Medical examinations include anthropometric measures, blood pressure of arm and ankle, a 10-second and a 20-minute electrocardiogram, a general physical examination, an echocardiogram, and laboratory analyses of venous blood samples. On 200 participants, a 24-hour electrocardiogram is recorded. A detailed system of quality control ensures high data quality. A follow-up examination is planned. DISCUSSION: This study will help to elucidate pathways to CVD involving autonomic dysfunction and lifestyle factors which might be responsible for the CVD epidemic in some populations