On epidemic modeling in real time: An application to the 2009 Novel A (H1N1) influenza outbreak in Canada

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Management of emerging infectious diseases such as the 2009 influenza pandemic A (H1N1) poses great challenges for real-time mathematical modeling of disease transmission due to limited information on disease natural history and epidemiology, stochastic variation in the course of epidemics, and changing case definitions and surveillance practices.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>The Richards model and its variants are used to fit the cumulative epidemic curve for laboratory-confirmed pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) infections in Canada, made available by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC). The model is used to obtain estimates for turning points in the initial outbreak, the basic reproductive number (R₀), and for expected final outbreak size in the absence of interventions. Confirmed case data were used to construct a best-fit 2-phase model with three turning points. R₀was estimated to be 1.30 (95% CI 1.12-1.47) for the first phase (April 1 to May 4) and 1.35 (95% CI 1.16-1.54) for the second phase (May 4 to June 19). Hospitalization data were also used to fit a 1-phase model with R₀= 1.35 (1.20-1.49) and a single turning point of June 11.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Application of the Richards model to Canadian pH1N1 data shows that detection of turning points is affected by the quality of data available at the time of data usage. Using a Richards model, robust estimates of R₀were obtained approximately one month after the initial outbreak in the case of 2009 A (H1N1) in Canada.</p

Is the association of birth weight with premenopausal breast cancer risk mediated through childhood growth?

Several studies have found positive associations between birth weight and breast cancer risk at premenopausal ages. The mechanisms underlying this association are not known, but it is possible that it may be mediated through childhood growth. We examined data from a British cohort of 2176 women born in 1946 and for whom there were prospective measurements of birth weight and of body size throughout life. In all, 59 breast cancer cases occurred during follow-up, 21 of whom were known to be premenopausal. Women who weighed at least 4 kg at birth were five times (relative risk (RR)=5.03; 95% confidence interval=1.13, 22.5) more likely to develop premenopausal breast cancer than those who weighed less than 3 kg (P-value for linear trend=0.03). This corresponded to an RR of 2.31 (0.95, 5.64) per 1 kg increase in birth weight. Birth weight was also a predictor of postnatal growth, that is, women who were heavy at birth remained taller and heavier throughout their childhood and young adulthood. However, the effect of birth weight on premenopausal breast cancer risk was only reduced slightly after simultaneous adjustment for height and body mass index (BMI) at age 2 years and height and BMI velocities throughout childhood and adolescence (adjusted RR=1.94 (0.74, 5.14) per 1 kg increase in birth weight). The pathways through which birth weight is associated with premenopausal breast cancer risk seem to be largely independent of those underlying the relation of postnatal growth to risk

Genetic integrity of the human Y chromosome exposed to groundwater arsenic

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Arsenic is a known human carcinogen reported to cause chromosomal deletions and genetic anomalies in cultured cells. The vast human population inhabiting the Ganges delta in West Bengal, India and Bangladesh is exposed to critical levels of arsenic present in the groundwater. The genetic and physiological mechanism of arsenic toxicity in the human body is yet to be fully established. In addition, lack of animal models has made work on this line even more challenging.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Human male blood samples were collected with their informed consent from 5 districts in West Bengal having groundwater arsenic level more than 50 μg/L. Isolation of genomic DNA and preparation of metaphase chromosomes was done using standard protocols. End point PCR was performed for established sequence tagged sites to ascertain the status of recombination events. Single nucleotide variants of candidate genes and amplicons were carried out using appropriate restriction enzymes. The copy number of DYZ1 array per haploid genome was calculated using real time PCR and its chromosomal localization was done by fluorescence in-situ hybridization (FISH).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We studied effects of arsenic exposure on the human Y chromosome in males from different areas of West Bengal focusing on known recombination events (P5-P1 proximal; P5-P1 distal; gr/gr; TSPY-TSPY, b1/b3 and b2/b3), single nucleotide variants (SNVs) of a few candidate Y-linked genes (DAZ, TTY4, BPY2, GOLGA2LY) and the amplicons of AZFc region. Also, possible chromosomal reorganization of DYZ1 repeat arrays was analyzed. Barring a few microdeletions, no major changes were detected in blood DNA samples. SNV analysis showed a difference in some alleles. Similarly, DYZ1 arrays signals detected by FISH were found to be affected in some males.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our Y chromosome analysis suggests that the same is protected from the effects of arsenic by some unknown mechanisms maintaining its structural and functional integrities. Thus, arsenic effects on the human body seem to be different compared to that on the cultured cells.</p

Examining the Interactome of Huperzine A by Magnetic Biopanning

Huperzine A is a bioactive compound derived from traditional Chinese medicine plant Qian Ceng Ta (Huperzia serrata), and was found to have multiple neuroprotective effects. In addition to being a potent acetylcholinesterase inhibitor, it was thought to act through other mechanisms such as antioxidation, antiapoptosis, etc. However, the molecular targets involved with these mechanisms were not identified. In this study, we attempted to exam the interactome of Huperzine A using a cDNA phage display library and also mammalian brain tissue extracts. The drugs were chemically linked on the surface of magnetic particles and the interactive phages or proteins were collected and analyzed. Among the various cDNA expressing phages selected, one was identified to encode the mitochondria NADH dehydrogenase subunit 1. Specific bindings between the drug and the target phages and target proteins were confirmed. Another enriched phage clone was identified as mitochondria ATP synthase, which was also panned out from the proteome of mouse brain tissue lysate. These data indicated the possible involvement of mitochondrial respiratory chain matrix enzymes in Huperzine A's pharmacological effects. Such involvement had been suggested by previous studies based on enzyme activity changes. Our data supported the new mechanism. Overall we demonstrated the feasibility of using magnetic biopanning as a simple and viable method for investigating the complex molecular mechanisms of bioactive molecules

Obstetric history and mammographic density: a population-based cross-sectional study in Spain (DDM-Spain)

High mammographic density (MD) is used as a phenotype risk marker for developing breast cancer. During pregnancy and lactation the breast attains full development, with a cellular-proliferation followed by a lobular-differentiation stage. This study investigates the influence of obstetric factors on MD among pre- and post-menopausal women. We enrolled 3,574 women aged 45–68 years who were participating in breast cancer screening programmes in seven screening centers. To measure MD, blind anonymous readings were taken by an experienced radiologist, using craniocaudal mammography and Boyd’s semiquantitative scale. Demographic and reproductive data were directly surveyed by purpose-trained staff at the date of screening. The association between MD and obstetric variables was quantified by ordinal logistic regression, with screening centre introduced as a random effect term. We adjusted for age, number of children and body mass index, and stratified by menopausal status. Parity was inversely associated with density, the probability of having high MD decreased by 16% for each new birth (P value < 0.001). Among parous women, a positive association was detected with duration of lactation [>9 months: odds ratio (OR) = 1.33; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.02–1.72] and weight of first child (>3,500 g: OR = 1.32; 95% CI = 1.12–1.54). Age at first birth showed a different effect in pre- and post-menopausal women (P value for interaction = 0.030). No association was found among pre-menopausal women. However, in post-menopausal women the probability of having high MD increased in women who had their first child after the age of 30 (OR = 1.53; 95% CI = 1.17–2.00). A higher risk associated with birth of twins was also mainly observed in post-menopausal women (OR = 2.02; 95% CI = 1.18–3.46). Our study shows a greater prevalence of high MD in mothers of advanced age at first birth, those who had twins, those who have breastfed for longer periods, and mothers whose first child had an elevated birth weight. These results suggest the influence of hormones and growth factors over the proliferative activity of the mammary gland

Axonal Varicosity Density as an Index of Local Neuronal Interactions

Diffuse transmission is an important non-synaptic communication mode in the cerebral neocortex, in which neurotransmitters released from en passant varicosities interact with surrounding cells. In a previous study we have shown that the cholinergic axonal segments which were in the microproximity with dopaminergic fibers possessed a greater density of en passant varicosities compared to more distant segments, suggesting an activity-dependent level of en passant varicosities in the axonal zone of interaction. To further evaluate this plastic relationship, the density of cholinergic varicosities was quantified on fiber segments within the microproximity of activated or non-activated pyramidal cells of the prefrontal cortex (mPFC). Repetitive 14 days patterned visual stimulation paired with an electrical stimulation of the cholinergic fibers projecting to the mPFC from the HDB was performed to induce persistent axonal plastic changes. The c-Fos early gene immunoreactivity was used as a neuronal activity marker of layer V pyramidal cells, labelled with anti-glutamate transporter EAAC1. Cholinergic fibers were labeled with anti-ChAT (choline acetyltransferase) immunostaining. The density of ChAT+ varicosities on and the length of fiber segments within the 3 µm microproximity of c-Fos positive/negative pyramidal cells were evaluated on confocal images. More than 50% of the pyramidal cells in the mPFC were c-Fos immunoreactive. Density of ChAT+ varicosities was significantly increased within 3 µm vicinity of activated pyramidal cells (0.50±0.01 per µm of ChAT+ fiber length) compared to non-activated cells in this group (0.34±0.001; p≤0.05) or control rats (0.32±0.02; p≤0.05). Different types of stimulation (visual, HDB or visual/HDB) induced similar increase of the density of ChAT+ varicosities within microproximity of activated pyramidal cells. This study demonstrated at the subcellular level an activity-dependent enrichment of ChAT+ varicosities in the axonal zone of interaction with other neuronal elements

Differentiation of Schizophrenia Patients from Healthy Subjects by Mismatch Negativity and Neuropsychological Tests

BACKGROUND: Schizophrenia is a heterogeneous disorder with diverse presentations. The current and the proposed DSM-V diagnostic system remains phenomenologically based, despite the fact that several neurobiological and neuropsychological markers have been identified. A multivariate approach has better diagnostic utility than a single marker method. In this study, the mismatch negativity (MMN) deficit of schizophrenia was first replicated in a Han Chinese population, and then the MMN was combined with several neuropsychological measurements to differentiate schizophrenia patients from healthy subjects. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 120 schizophrenia patients and 76 healthy controls were recruited. Each subject received examinations for duration MMN, Continuous Performance Test, Wisconsin Card Sorting Test, and Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale Third Edition (WAIS-III). The MMN was compared between cases and controls, and important covariates were investigated. Schizophrenia patients had significantly reduced MMN amplitudes, and MMN decreased with increasing age in both patient and control groups. None of the neuropsychological indices correlated with MMN. Predictive multivariate logistic regression models using the MMN and neuropsychological measurements as predictors were developed. Four predictors, including MMN at electrode FCz and three scores from the WAIS-III (Arithmetic, Block Design, and Performance IQ) were retained in the final predictive model. The model performed well in differentiating patients from healthy subjects (percentage of concordant pairs: 90.5%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: MMN deficits were found in Han Chinese schizophrenia patients. The multivariate approach combining biomarkers from different modalities such as electrophysiology and neuropsychology had a better diagnostic utility