Impact of 2050 climate change on North American wildfire: consequences for ozone air quality

We estimate future area burned in the Alaskan and Canadian forest by the mid-century (2046–2065) based on the simulated meteorology from 13 climate models under the A1B scenario. We develop ecoregion-dependent regressions using observed relationships between annual total area burned and a suite of meteorological variables and fire weather indices, and apply these regressions to the simulated meteorology. We find that for Alaska and western Canada, almost all models predict significant (p < 0.05) increases in area burned at the mid-century, with median values ranging from 150 to 390 %, depending on the ecoregion. Such changes are attributed to the higher surface air temperatures and 500 hPa geopotential heights relative to present day, which together lead to favorable conditions for wildfire spread. Elsewhere the model predictions are not as robust. For the central and southern Canadian ecoregions, the models predict increases in area burned of 45–90 %. Except for the Taiga Plain, where area burned decreases by 50 %, no robust trends are found in northern Canada, due to the competing effects of hotter weather and wetter conditions there. Using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, we find that changes in wildfire emissions alone increase mean summertime surface ozone levels by 5 ppbv for Alaska, 3 ppbv for Canada, and 1 ppbv for the western US by the mid-century. In the northwestern US states, local wildfire emissions at the mid-century enhance surface ozone by an average of 1 ppbv, while transport of boreal fire pollution further degrades ozone air quality by an additional 0.5 ppbv. The projected changes in wildfire activity increase daily summertime surface ozone above the 95th percentile by 1 ppbv in the northwestern US, 5 ppbv in the high latitudes of Canada, and 15 ppbv in Alaska, suggesting a greater frequency of pollution episodes in the future atmosphere

Impact of 2050 climate change on North American wildfire: consequences for ozone air quality

We estimate future area burned in the Alaskan and Canadian forest by the mid-century (2046–2065) based on the simulated meteorology from 13 climate models under the A1B scenario. We develop ecoregion-dependent regressions using observed relationships between annual total area burned and a suite of meteorological variables and fire weather indices, and apply these regressions to the simulated meteorology. We find that for Alaska and western Canada, almost all models predict significant (p < 0.05) increases in area burned at the mid-century, with median values ranging from 150 to 390 %, depending on the ecoregion. Such changes are attributed to the higher surface air temperatures and 500 hPa geopotential heights relative to present day, which together lead to favorable conditions for wildfire spread. Elsewhere the model predictions are not as robust. For the central and southern Canadian ecoregions, the models predict increases in area burned of 45–90 %. Except for the Taiga Plain, where area burned decreases by 50 %, no robust trends are found in northern Canada, due to the competing effects of hotter weather and wetter conditions there. Using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, we find that changes in wildfire emissions alone increase mean summertime surface ozone levels by 5 ppbv for Alaska, 3 ppbv for Canada, and 1 ppbv for the western US by the mid-century. In the northwestern US states, local wildfire emissions at the mid-century enhance surface ozone by an average of 1 ppbv, while transport of boreal fire pollution further degrades ozone air quality by an additional 0.5 ppbv. The projected changes in wildfire activity increase daily summertime surface ozone above the 95th percentile by 1 ppbv in the northwestern US, 5 ppbv in the high latitudes of Canada, and 15 ppbv in Alaska, suggesting a greater frequency of pollution episodes in the future atmosphere

North American Influence on Tropospheric Ozone and the Effects of Recent Emission Reductions: Constraints from ICARTT Observations

We use observations from the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT) campaign over eastern North America in summer 2004, interpreted with a global 3‐D model of tropospheric chemistry (GEOS‐Chem), to improve and update estimates of North American influence on global tropospheric ozone and the effect of recent U.S. anthropogenic reductions on surface ozone pollution. We find that the 50% decrease in U.S. stationary NOx sources since 1999 has decreased mean U.S. boundary layer ozone concentrations by 6–8 ppbv in the southeast and 4–6 ppbv in the Midwest. The observed dO3/dCO molar enhancement ratio in the U.S. boundary layer during ICARTT was 0.46 mol mol−1, larger than the range of 0.3–0.4 from studies in the early 1990s, possibly reflecting the decrease in the NOx/CO emission ratio as well as an increase in the ozone production efficiency per unit NOx. North American NOx emissions during summer 2004 as constrained by the ICARTT observations (0.72 Tg N fossil fuel, 0.11 Tg N biomass burning, 0.28 Tg N lightning for 1 July to 15 August) enhanced the hemispheric tropospheric ozone burden by 12.4%, with comparable contributions from fossil fuel and lightning (5–6%), but only 1% from biomass burning emissions despite 2004 being a record fire year over Alaska and western Canada.Earth and Planetary Science

Biogenic Versus Anthropogenic Sources of CO in the United States

Aircraft observations of carbon monoxide (CO) from the ICARTT campaign over the eastern United States in summer 2004 (July 1–August 15), interpreted with a global 3-D model of tropospheric chemistry (GEOS-Chem), show that the national anthropogenic emission inventory from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (93 Tg CO y−1) is too high by 60% in summer. Our best estimate of the CO anthropogenic source for the ICARTT period is 6.4 Tg CO, including 4.6 Tg from direct emission and 1.8 Tg CO from oxidation of anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs). The biogenic CO source for the same period from the oxidation of isoprene and other biogenic VOCs is 8.3 Tg CO, and is independently constrained by ICARTT observations of formaldehyde (HCHO). Anthropogenic emissions of CO in the U.S. have decreased to the point that they are now lower than the biogenic source in summer.Earth and Planetary SciencesEngineering and Applied Science

Biogenic versus anthropogenic sources of CO in the United States

Aircraft observations of carbon monoxide (CO) from the ICARTT campaign over the eastern United States in summer 2004 (July 1–August 15), interpreted with a global 3-D model of tropospheric chemistry (GEOS-Chem), show that the national anthropogenic emission inventory from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (93 Tg CO y−1) is too high by 60% in summer. Our best estimate of the CO anthropogenic source for the ICARTT period is 6.4 Tg CO, including 4.6 Tg from direct emission and 1.8 Tg CO from oxidation of anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs). The biogenic CO source for the same period from the oxidation of isoprene and other biogenic VOCs is 8.3 Tg CO, and is independently constrained by ICARTT observations of formaldehyde (HCHO). Anthropogenic emissions of CO in the U.S. have decreased to the point that they are now lower than the biogenic source in summer

High Temporal Resolution Inverse Modeling of CO Emissions from North American Boreal Fires and Their Injection Height During the Summer of 2004

(invited)info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublishe