Deformation at Krafla and Bjarnarflag geothermal areas, Northern Volcanic Zone of Iceland, 1993-2015

The Krafla volcanic system has geothermal areas within the Krafla caldera and at Bjarnarflag in the Krafla fissure swarm, 9-km south of the Krafla caldera. Arrays of boreholes extract geothermal fluids for power plants in both areas. We collected and analyzed InSAR, GPS, and leveling data spanning 1993–2015 in order to investigate crustal deformation in these areas. The volcanic zone hosting the geothermal areas is also subject to large scale regional deformation processes, including plate spreading and deflation of the Krafla volcanic system. These deformation processes have to be taken into account in order to isolate the geothermal deformation signal. Plate spreading produces the largest horizontal displacements, but the regional deformation pattern also suggests readjustment of the Krafla system at depth after the 1975–1984 Krafla rifting episode. Observed deformation can be fit by an inflation source at about 20 km depth north of Krafla and a deflation source at similar depth directly below the Krafla caldera. Deflation signal along the fissure swarm can be reproduced by a 1-km wide sill at 4 km depth closing by 2–4 cm per year. These sources are considered to approximate the combined effects of vertical deformation associated with plate spreading and post-rifting response. Local deformation at the geothermal areas is well resolved in addition to these signals. InSAR shows that deformation at Bjarnarflag is elongated along the direction of the Krafla fissure swarm (∼4 km by ∼2 km) while it is circular at Krafla (∼5 km diameter). Rates of deflation at Krafla and Bjarnarflag geothermal areas have been relatively steady. Average volume decrease of about 6.6 ×10⁵ m³/yr for Krafla and 3.9 ×10⁵ m³/yr for Bjanarflag are found at sources located at ∼1.5 km depth, when interpreted by a spherical point source of pressure. This volume change represents about 8 ×10 −3 m³/ton of the mass of geothermal fluid extracted per year, indicating important renewal of the geothermal reservoir by water flow

Glacio-isostatic deformation around the Vatnajokull ice cap, Iceland, induced by recent climate warming: GPS observations and finite element modeling

Glaciers in Iceland began retreating around 1890, and since then the Vatnajökull ice cap has lost over 400 km3 of ice. The associated unloading of the crust induces a glacio‐isostatic response. From 1996 to 2004 a GPS network was measured around the southern edge of Vatnajökull. These measurements, together with more extended time series at several other GPS sites, indicate vertical velocities around the ice cap ranging from 9 to 25 mm/yr, and horizontal velocities in the range 3 to 4 mm/yr. The vertical velocities have been modeled using the finite element method (FEM) in order to constrain the viscosity structure beneath Vatnajökull. We use an axisymmetric Earth model with an elastic plate over a uniform viscoelastic half‐space. The observations are consistent with predictions based on an Earth model made up of an elastic plate with a thickness of 10–20 km and an underlying viscosity in the range 4–10 × 1018 Pa s. Knowledge of the Earth structure allows us to predict uplift around Vatnajökull in the next decades. According to our estimates of the rheological parameters, and assuming that ice thinning will continue at a similar rate during this century (about 4 km3/year), a minimum uplift of 2.5 meters between 2000 to 2100 is expected near the current ice cap edge. If the thinning rates were to double in response to global warming (about 8 km3/year), then the minimum uplift between 2000 to 2100 near the current ice cap edge is expected to be 3.7 meters

Kinematic behavior of southern Alaska constrained by westward decreasing postglacial slip rates on the Denali Fault, Alaska

Long-term slip rates for the Denali Fault in southern Alaska are derived using ^(10)Be cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) dating of offset glacial moraines at two sites. Correction of ^(10)Be CRN model ages for the effect of snow shielding uses historical, regional snow cover data scaled to the site altitudes. To integrate the time variation of snow cover, we included the relative changes in effective wetness over the last 11 ka, derived from lake-level records and δ^(18)O variations from Alaskan lakes. The moraine CRN model ages are normally distributed around an average of 12.1 ± 1.0 ka (n = 22, ± 1σ). The slip rate decreases westward from ~13 mm/a at 144°49′W to about 7 mm/a at 149°26′W. The data are consistent with a kinematic model in which southern Alaska translates northwestward at a rate of ~14 mm/a relative to a stable northern Alaska with no rotation. This suggests progressive slip partitioning between the Denali Fault and the active fold and thrust belt at the northern front of the Alaska range, with convergence rates increasing westward from ~4 mm/a to 11 mm/a between ~149°W and 145°W. As the two moraines sampled for this study were emplaced synchronously, our suggestion of a westward decrease in the slip rate of the Denali Fault relies largely upon the measured offsets at both sites, regardless of any potential systematic uncertainty in the CRN model ages

A new high-rate continuous GPS network in Iceland for crustal deformation research

Edytem equipe 2 2003-201

Magma pressurisation sustains ongoing eruptive episode at dome-building Soufrière Hills Volcano

This is the author accepted manuscriptDome-building volcanoes, where long-term eruptive episodes can be interspersed with periods of intra-eruptive repose, are particularly challenging for volcanic hazard assessment. Defining the end of eruptive episodes is vitally important for the socio-economic recovery of affected communities, but highly problematic due to the potential for rapid transition from prolonged, seemingly low-risk, repose to dangerous effusive or explosive activity. It is currently unclear what constitutes the end of repose and an eruptive episode. Here we show that analysis of surface deformation can characterise repose and help define an eruptive episode. At Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV) the long-term post-2010 deformation at 12 cGPS stations requires the pressure in the magma system to increase with time; time-dependent stress relaxation or crustal creep cannot explain the deformation trends alone. Continued pressurisation within the magmatic system during repose could initiate a renewed eruption, qualifying as sustained unrest and therefore continuation of the eruptive episode. For SHV, persistent magma pressurisation highlights the need for sustained vigilance in the monitoring and management of the volcano and its surroundings, despite the last eruptive activity ending in 2010. Our results show promise for application to other dome-building volcanoes.Natural Environment Research CouncilNatural Environment Research CouncilMVO/SR

A new high-rate continuous GPS network in Iceland for crustal deformation research

Edytem equipe 2 2003-201