Correlated continuous-time random walks: combining scale-invariance with long-range memory for spatial and temporal dynamics

Standard continuous time random walk (CTRW) models are renewal processes in the sense that at each jump a new, independent pair of jump length and waiting time are chosen. Globally, anomalous diffusion emerges through action of the generalized central limit theorem leading to scale-free forms of the jump length or waiting time distributions. Here we present a modified version of recently proposed correlated CTRW processes, where we incorporate a power-law correlated noise on the level of both jump length and waiting time dynamics. We obtain a very general stochastic model, that encompasses key features of several paradigmatic models of anomalous diffusion: discontinuous, scale-free displacements as in Levy flights, scale-free waiting times as in subdiffusive CTRWs, and the long-range temporal correlations of fractional Brownian motion (FBM). We derive the exact solutions for the single-time probability density functions and extract the scaling behaviours. Interestingly, we find that different combinations of the model parameters lead to indistinguishable shapes of the emerging probability density functions and identical scaling laws. Our model will be useful to describe recent experimental single particle tracking data, that feature a combination of CTRW and FBM properties.Comment: 25 pages, IOP style, 5 figure

A comparison of random forests, boosting and support vector machines for genomic selection

Genomic selection (GS) involves estimating breeding values using molecular markers spanning the entire genome. Accurate prediction of genomic breeding values (GEBVs) presents a central challenge to contemporary plant and animal breeders. The existence of a wide array of marker-based approaches for predicting breeding values makes it essential to evaluate and compare their relative predictive performances to identify approaches able to accurately predict breeding values. We evaluated the predictive accuracy of random forests (RF), stochastic gradient boosting (boosting) and support vector machines (SVMs) for predicting genomic breeding values using dense SNP markers and explored the utility of RF for ranking the predictive importance of markers for pre-screening markers or discovering chromosomal locations of QTLs

Diurnal changes in seawater carbonate chemistry speciation at increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide

Natural variability in seawater pH and associated carbonate chemistry parameters is in part driven by biological activities such as photosynthesis and respiration. The amplitude of these variations is expected to increase with increasing seawater carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the future, because of simultaneously decreasing buffer capacity. Here, we address this experimentally during a diurnal cycle in a mesocosm CO2 perturbation study. We show that for about the same amount of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) utilized in net community production diel variability in proton (H+) and CO2 concentrations was almost three times higher at CO2 levels of about 675 ± 65 in comparison with levels of 310 ± 30 μatm. With a simple model, adequately simulating our measurements, we visualize carbonate chemistry variability expected for different oceanic regions with relatively low or high net community production. Since enhanced diurnal variability in CO2 and proton concentration may require stronger cellular regulation in phytoplankton to maintain respective gradients, the ability to adjust may differ between communities adapted to low in comparison with high natural variability

The SOS Pilot Study: a RCT of routine oxygen supplementation early after acute stroke—effect on recovery of neurological function at one week

Mild hypoxia is common after stroke and associated with poor long-term outcome. Oxygen supplementation could prevent hypoxia and improve recovery. A previous study of routine oxygen supplementation showed no significant benefit at 7 and 12 months. This pilot study reports the effects of routine oxygen supplementation for 72 hours on oxygen saturation and neurological outcomes at 1 week after a stroke

Rapid emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant is associated with an infection advantage over Delta in vaccinated persons

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant became a global concern due to its rapid spread and displacement of the dominant Delta variant. We hypothesized that part of Omicron’s rapid rise was based on its increased ability to cause infections in persons that are vaccinated compared to Delta. METHODS: We analyzed nasal swab PCR tests for samples collected between December 12 and 16, 2021, in Connecticut when the proportion of Delta and Omicron variants was relatively equal. We used the spike gene target failure (SGTF) to classify probable Delta and Omicron infections. We fitted an exponential curve to the estimated infections to determine the doubling times for each variant. We compared the test positivity rates for each variant by vaccination status, number of doses, and vaccine manufacturer. Generalized linear models were used to assess factors associated with odds of infection with each variant among persons testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. FINDINGS: For infections with high virus copies (Ct < 30) among vaccinated persons, we found higher odds that they were infected with Omicron compared to Delta, and that the odds increased with increased number of vaccine doses. Compared to unvaccinated persons, we found significant reduction in Delta positivity rates after two (43.4%–49.1%) and three vaccine doses (81.1%), while we only found a significant reduction in Omicron positivity rates after three doses (62.3%). CONCLUSION: The rapid rise in Omicron infections was likely driven by Omicron’s escape from vaccine-induced immunity. FUNDING: This work was supported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

Quality of reporting of randomized controlled trials in polycystic ovary syndrome

Background: Inadequate reporting of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) is associated with biased estimates of treatment effects. The reporting quality of RCTs involving patients with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is unknown. The purpose of this study was to assess the reporting quality of RCTs involving patients with PCOS using a standardized tool based on the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) statement. Methods: We searched PubMed database for English-language RCTs involving patients with PCOS. Quality of reporting was assessed using a 24-item questionnaire based on the revised CONSORT checklist. Reporting was evaluated overall, and for pre- and post-CONSORT periods. RCTs on PCOS associated with fertility and non-fertility disturbances were also evaluated separately. Results: Nine of the 24 items were reported in less than 50% of the studies, while a significant improvement (P < 0.05) was detected in 12 of 24 items (50%) over the two CONSORT periods. The RCTs on PCOS with reference to fertility seem to have adhered better to CONSORT statement than RCTs not associated to fertility. Conclusion: There is empirical evidence of suboptimal reporting quality of RCTs in PCOS. Endorsement of the CONSORT statement may optimize the reporting quality and enhance the validity of research

Reporting conditionals with modals

Conditionals and modals work in tandem in some instances of practical reasoning, or decision making. Consider the following example (from Kratzer 2012): a. I want to become a mayor. b. (q) I will become a mayor only if (p) I go to the pub. c. Therefore, I should go to the pub. Given what the cogniser wants (a) and the relevant circumstances (b), the conclusion that the cogniser goes to the pub comes out as necessary. Hence, the presence of the necessity modal should in (c). Indeed, given the context of (a), the necessity modal in (c) is simply a reflection of the necessity of p for q, which is overtly represented by the use of the ‘only if p, q’ construction. This chapter looks into whether indirect reports of conditionals – in particular, indirect reports which involve the use of a modal verb – are sensitive to the necessity of p for q in cases where necessity is not overtly represented in a conditional, as in ‘if p, q’ formulations. We report on two online experiments into the relation between (i) perceived necessity or sufficiency of the truth of a conditional antecedent for the truth of the consequent, and (ii) the formulation of an indirect report of a conditional with necessity or possibility modals (have to, should, could). In Experiment 1, the ‘necessity/sufficiency of p for q’ variable was manipulated by contextually altering the number of alternative antecedents (e.g. Cummins et al. 1991; Thompson 1994; Politzer 2003). It was found that modals used in indirect reports of ‘if p, q’ conditionals co-vary with the number of alternative antecedents in predictable ways. This suggests that modals used in indirect reports of ‘if p, q’ conditionals may be a diagnostic for biconditional versus material interpretations of conditionals. The aim of Experiment 2 was to find out whether the results of Experiment 1 could be replicated in contexts which lower/eliminate the believability of the conditionals. It was found that manipulating the believability variable has no reliable effect on the results

Indirect Reports in Modern Eastern Armenian

In this work we consider the distribution of complementizers in Modern Eastern Armenian. There are two complementizers: wor and t‘e. They both introduce complement clauses, but t‘e also expresses a dubitative value, implying that the speaker has doubts on the content following the complementizer. Moreover, t‘e, when embedded under verbs of saying, shifts the anchoring of indexicals, moving the anchor from the speaker – better called utterer – to the subject of the saying predicate. On the basis of this and further evidence coming from the analysis of sequence of tense and if-clauses, we will argue that the position of t‘e in the left periphery of the clause occupies a high position in the syntactic hierarchy. The aim of this work is on one hand, a better understanding of indirect reports and their syntax and, on the other, a more precise characterization of indexicals across languages