Replica Symmetry Breaking in Attractor Neural Network Models

The phenomenon of replica symmetry breaking is investigated for the retrieval phases of Hopfield-type network models. The basic calculation is done for the generalized version of the standard model introduced by Horner [1] and by Perez-Vicente and Amit [2] which can exhibit low mean levels of neural activity. For a mean activity $\bar a =1/2$ the Hopfield model is recovered. In this case, surprisingly enough, we cannot confirm the well known one step replica symmetry breaking (1RSB) result for the storage capacity which was presented by Crisanti, Amit and Gutfreund [3] (\alpha_c^{\hbox{\mf 1RSB}}\simeq 0.144). Rather, we find that 1RSB- and 2RSB-Ans\"atze yield only slightly increased capacities as compared to the replica symmetric value (\alpha_c^{\hbox{\mf 1RSB}}\simeq 0.138\,186 and \alpha_c^{\hbox{\mf 2RSB}}\simeq 0.138\,187 compared to \alpha_c^{\hbox{\mf RS}}\simeq 0.137\,905), significantly smaller also than the value \alpha_c^{\hbox{\mf sim}} = 0.145\pm 0.009 reported from simulation studies. These values still lie within the recently discovered reentrant phase [4]. We conjecture that in the infinite Parisi-scheme the reentrant behaviour disappears as is the case in the SK-spin-glass model (Parisi--Toulouse-hypothesis). The same qualitative results are obtained in the low activity range.Comment: Latex file, 20 pages, 8 Figures available from the authors upon request, HD-TVP-94-

Eighteenth century Yersinia pestis genomes reveal the long-term persistence of an historical plague focus

© Bos et al. The 14th-18th century pandemic of Yersinia pestis caused devastating disease outbreaks in Europe for almost 400 years. The reasons for plague's persistence and abrupt disappearance in Europe are poorly understood, but could have been due to either the presence of now-extinct plague foci in Europe itself, or successive disease introductions from other locations. Here we present five Y. pestis genomes from one of the last European outbreaks of plague, from 1722 in Marseille, France. The lineage identified has not been found in any extant Y. pestis foci sampled to date, and has its ancestry in strains obtained from victims of the 14th century Black Death. These data suggest the existence of a previously uncharacterized historical plague focus that persisted for at least three centuries. We propose that this disease source may have been responsible for the many resurgences of plague in Europe following the Black Death

Polymorphisms in the Estrogen Receptor 1 and Vitamin C and Matrix Metalloproteinase Gene Families Are Associated with Susceptibility to Lymphoma

BackgroundNon-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) is the fifth most common cancer in the U.S. and few causes have been identified. Genetic association studies may help identify environmental risk factors and enhance our understanding of disease mechanisms.Methodology/principal findings768 coding and haplotype tagging SNPs in 146 genes were examined using Illumina GoldenGate technology in a large population-based case-control study of NHL in the San Francisco Bay Area (1,292 cases 1,375 controls are included here). Statistical analyses were restricted to HIV- participants of white non-Hispanic origin. Genes involved in steroidogenesis, immune function, cell signaling, sunlight exposure, xenobiotic metabolism/oxidative stress, energy balance, and uptake and metabolism of cholesterol, folate and vitamin C were investigated. Sixteen SNPs in eight pathways and nine haplotypes were associated with NHL after correction for multiple testing at the adjusted q<0.10 level. Eight SNPs were tested in an independent case-control study of lymphoma in Germany (494 NHL cases and 494 matched controls). Novel associations with common variants in estrogen receptor 1 (ESR1) and in the vitamin C receptor and matrix metalloproteinase gene families were observed. Four ESR1 SNPs were associated with follicular lymphoma (FL) in the U.S. study, with rs3020314 remaining associated with reduced risk of FL after multiple testing adjustments [odds ratio (OR) = 0.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.23-0.77) and replication in the German study (OR = 0.24, 95% CI = 0.06-0.94). Several SNPs and haplotypes in the matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP3) and MMP9 genes and in the vitamin C receptor genes, solute carrier family 23 member 1 (SLC23A1) and SLC23A2, showed associations with NHL risk.Conclusions/significanceOur findings suggest a role for estrogen, vitamin C and matrix metalloproteinases in the pathogenesis of NHL that will require further validation

Image perception and interpretation of abnormalities; can we believe our eyes? Can we do something about it?

The radiologist’s visual impression of images is transmitted, via non-visual means (the report), to the clinician. There are several complex steps from the perception of the images by the radiologist to the understanding of the impression by the clinician. With a process as complex as this, it is no wonder that errors in perception, cognition, interpretation, transmission and understanding are very common. This paper reviews the processes of perception and error generation and possible strategies for minimising them

Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 1990-2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050

Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses an important global health challenge in the 21st century. A previous study has quantified the global and regional burden of AMR for 2019, followed with additional publications that provided more detailed estimates for several WHO regions by country. To date, there have been no studies that produce comprehensive estimates of AMR burden across locations that encompass historical trends and future forecasts. Methods We estimated all-age and age-specific deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen–drug combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We collected and used multiple cause of death data, hospital discharge data, microbiology data, literature studies, single drug resistance profiles, pharmaceutical sales, antibiotic use surveys, mortality surveillance, linkage data, outpatient and inpatient insurance claims data, and previously published data, covering 520 million individual records or isolates and 19 513 study-location-years. We used statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including those with no data. Our approach leverages the estimation of five broad component quantities: the number of deaths involving sepsis; the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome; the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen; the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest; and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden attributable to and associated with AMR, which we define based on two counterfactuals; respectively, an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections are replaced by drug-susceptible infections, and an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection. Additionally, we produced global and regional forecasts of AMR burden until 2050 for three scenarios: a reference scenario that is a probabilistic forecast of the most likely future; a Gram-negative drug scenario that assumes future drug development that targets Gram-negative pathogens; and a better care scenario that assumes future improvements in health-care quality and access to appropriate antimicrobials. We present final estimates aggregated to the global, super-regional, and regional level. Findings In 2021, we estimated 4·71 million (95% UI 4·23–5·19) deaths were associated with bacterial AMR, including 1·14 million (1·00–1·28) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. Trends in AMR mortality over the past 31 years varied substantially by age and location. From 1990 to 2021, deaths from AMR decreased by more than 50% among children younger than 5 years yet increased by over 80% for adults 70 years and older. AMR mortality decreased for children younger than 5 years in all super-regions, whereas AMR mortality in people 5 years and older increased in all super-regions. For both deaths associated with and deaths attributable to AMR, meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus increased the most globally (from 261 000 associated deaths [95% UI 150 000–372 000] and 57 200 attributable deaths [34 100–80 300] in 1990, to 550 000 associated deaths [500 000–600 000] and 130 000 attributable deaths [113 000–146 000] in 2021). Among Gram-negative bacteria, resistance to carbapenems increased more than any other antibiotic class, rising from 619 000 associated deaths (405 000–834 000) in 1990, to 1·03 million associated deaths (909 000–1·16 million) in 2021, and from 127 000 attributable deaths (82 100–171 000) in 1990, to 216 000 (168 000–264 000) attributable deaths in 2021. There was a notable decrease in non-COVID-related infectious disease in 2020 and 2021. Our forecasts show that an estimated 1·91 million (1·56–2·26) deaths attributable to AMR and 8·22 million (6·85–9·65) deaths associated with AMR could occur globally in 2050. Super-regions with the highest all-age AMR mortality rate in 2050 are forecasted to be south Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. Increases in deaths attributable to AMR will be largest among those 70 years and older (65·9% [61·2–69·8] of all-age deaths attributable to AMR in 2050). In stark contrast to the strong increase in number of deaths due to AMR of 69·6% (51·5–89·2) from 2022 to 2050, the number of DALYs showed a much smaller increase of 9·4% (–6·9 to 29·0) to 46·5 million (37·7 to 57·3) in 2050. Under the better care scenario, across all age groups, 92·0 million deaths (82·8–102·0) could be cumulatively averted between 2025 and 2050, through better care of severe infections and improved access to antibiotics, and under the Gram-negative drug scenario, 11·1 million AMR deaths (9·08–13·2) could be averted through the development of a Gram-negative drug pipeline to prevent AMR deaths. Interpretation This study presents the first comprehensive assessment of the global burden of AMR from 1990 to 2021, with results forecasted until 2050. Evaluating changing trends in AMR mortality across time and location is necessary to understand how this important global health threat is developing and prepares us to make informed decisions regarding interventions. Our findings show the importance of infection prevention, as shown by the reduction of AMR deaths in those younger than 5 years. Simultaneously, our results underscore the concerning trend of AMR burden among those older than 70 years, alongside a rapidly ageing global community. The opposing trends in the burden of AMR deaths between younger and older individuals explains the moderate future increase in global number of DALYs versus number of deaths. Given the high variability of AMR burden by location and age, it is important that interventions combine infection prevention, vaccination, minimisation of inappropriate antibiotic use in farming and humans, and research into new antibiotics to mitigate the number of AMR deaths that are forecasted for 2050. Funding UK Department of Health and Social Care's Fleming Fund using UK aid, and the Wellcome Trust

Nondestructive Testing of Nonmetallic Pipelines Using Microwave Reflectometry on an In-Line Inspection Robot

Microwave and millimeter-wave reflectometry, a form of continuous-wave surface penetrating radar, is an emerging nondestructive inspection technique that is suitable for nonmetallic pipelines. This paper shows a K -band microwave reflectometry instrument implemented onto an in-line pipe-crawling robot, which raster-scanned cracks and external wall loss on a high-density polyethylene (HDPE) pipe of diameter 150 mm and wall thickness 9.8 mm. The pipe was scanned with three environments surrounding the pipe that approximated the use cases of overground HDPE pipelines, plastic-lined metal pipes, and undersea HDPE pipelines. The instrument was most sensitive when cracks were oriented parallel to its magnetic (H) plane. Any small variation in the standoff distance between the instrument's probe antenna and the pipe wall, which was not easy to avoid, was found to obscure the image. To mitigate this problem, a sensitivity analysis showed that an optimal frequency can be chosen at which standoff distance can vary by up to ±0.75 mm within a certain range without distorting the indications of defects on the image