Forecasting substantial data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty

A recent revision to the preliminary measurement of GDP(E) growth for 2003Q2 caused considerable press attention, provoked a public enquiry and prompted a number of reforms to UK statistical reporting procedures. In this article, we compute the probability of 'substantial revisions' that are greater (in absolute value) than the controversial 2003 revision. The predictive densities are derived from Bayesian model averaging over a wide set of forecasting models including linear, structural break and regime-switching models with and without heteroscedasticity. Ignoring the nonlinearities and model uncertainty yields misleading predictives and obscures recent improvements in the quality of preliminary UK macroeconomic measurements

Cooperative Regulation of Non-Small Cell Lung Carcinoma by Nicotinic and Beta-Adrenergic Receptors: A Novel Target for Intervention

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death; 80–85% of lung cancer cases are non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Smoking is a documented risk factor for the development of this cancer. Although nicotine does not have the ability to initiate carcinogenic events, recent studies have implicated nicotine in growth stimulation of NSCLC. Using three NSCLC cell lines (NCI-H322, NCI-H441 and NCI-H1299), we identified the cooperation of nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs) and β-adrenergic receptors (β-ARs) as principal regulators of these effects. Proliferation was measured by thymidine incorporation and MTT assays, and Western blots were used to monitor the upregulation of the nAChRs and activation of signaling molecules. Noradrenaline and GABA were measured by immunoassays. Nicotine-treated NSCLC cells showed significant induction of the α7nAChR and α4nAChR, along with significant inductions of p-CREB and p-ERK1/2 accompanied by increases in the stress neurotransmitter noradrenaline, which in turn led to the observed increase in DNA synthesis and cell proliferation. Effects on cell proliferation and signaling proteins were reversed by the α7nAChR antagonist α-BTX or the β-blocker propranolol. Nicotine treatment also down-regulated expression of the GABA synthesizing enzyme GAD 65 and the level of endogenous GABA, while treatment of NSCLC cells with GABA inhibited cell proliferation. Interestingly, GABA acts by reducing β-adrenergic activated cAMP signaling. Our findings suggest that nicotine-induced activation of this autocrine noradrenaline-initiated signaling cascade and concomitant deficiency in inhibitory GABA, similar to modulation of these neurotransmitters in the nicotine-addicted brain, may contribute to the development of NSCLC in smokers. Our data suggest that exposure to nicotine either by tobacco smoke or nicotine supplements facilitates growth and progression of NSCLC and that pharmacological intervention by β blocker may lower the risk for NSCLC development among smokers and could be used to enhance the clinical outcome of standard cancer therapy

The Epstein-Barr Virus G-Protein-Coupled Receptor Contributes to Immune Evasion by Targeting MHC Class I Molecules for Degradation

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is a human herpesvirus that persists as a largely subclinical infection in the vast majority of adults worldwide. Recent evidence indicates that an important component of the persistence strategy involves active interference with the MHC class I antigen processing pathway during the lytic replication cycle. We have now identified a novel role for the lytic cycle gene, BILF1, which encodes a glycoprotein with the properties of a constitutive signaling G-protein-coupled receptor (GPCR). BILF1 reduced the levels of MHC class I at the cell surface and inhibited CD8+ T cell recognition of endogenous target antigens. The underlying mechanism involves physical association of BILF1 with MHC class I molecules, an increased turnover from the cell surface, and enhanced degradation via lysosomal proteases. The BILF1 protein of the closely related CeHV15 c1-herpesvirus of the Rhesus Old World primate (80% amino acid sequence identity) downregulated surface MHC class I similarly to EBV BILF1. Amongst the human herpesviruses, the GPCR encoded by the ORF74 of the KSHV c2-herpesvirus is most closely related to EBV BILF1 (15% amino acid sequence identity) but did not affect levels of surface MHC class I. An engineered mutant of BILF1 that was unable to activate G protein signaling pathways retained the ability to downregulate MHC class I, indicating that the immune-modulating and GPCR-signaling properties are two distinct functions of BILF1. These findings extend our understanding of the normal biology of an important human pathogen. The discovery of a third EBV lytic cycle gene that cooperates to interfere with MHC class I antigen processing underscores the importance of the need for EBV to be able to evade CD8+ T cell responses during the lytic replication cycle, at a time when such a large number of potential viral targets are expressed

Testing foundations of quantum mechanics with photons

The foundational ideas of quantum mechanics continue to give rise to counterintuitive theories and physical effects that are in conflict with a classical description of Nature. Experiments with light at the single photon level have historically been at the forefront of tests of fundamental quantum theory and new developments in photonics engineering continue to enable new experiments. Here we review recent photonic experiments to test two foundational themes in quantum mechanics: wave-particle duality, central to recent complementarity and delayed-choice experiments; and Bell nonlocality where recent theoretical and technological advances have allowed all controversial loopholes to be separately addressed in different photonics experiments.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, published as a Nature Physics Insight review articl

Cosmogenic neutron production at the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory

Neutrons produced in nuclear interactions initiated by cosmic-ray muons present an irreducible background to many rare-event searches, even in detectors located deep underground. Models for the production of these neutrons have been tested against previous experimental data, but the extrapolation to deeper sites is not well understood. Here we report results from an analysis of cosmogenically produced neutrons at the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory. A specific set of observables are presented, which can be used to benchmark the validity of geant4 physics models. In addition, the cosmogenic neutron yield, in units of 10-4 cm2/(g·μ), is measured to be 7.28±0.09(stat)-1.12+1.59(syst) in pure heavy water and 7.30±0.07(stat)-1.02+1.40(syst) in NaCl-loaded heavy water. These results provide unique insights into this potential background source for experiments at SNOLAB

Capsaicin- resistant arterial baroreceptors

BACKGROUND: Aortic baroreceptors (BRs) comprise a class of cranial afferents arising from major arteries closest to the heart whose axons form the aortic depressor nerve. BRs are mechanoreceptors that are largely devoted to cardiovascular autonomic reflexes. Such cranial afferents have either lightly myelinated (A-type) or non-myelinated (C-type) axons and share remarkable cellular similarities to spinal primary afferent neurons. Our goal was to test whether vanilloid receptor (TRPV1) agonists, capsaicin (CAP) and resiniferatoxin (RTX), altered the pressure-discharge properties of peripheral aortic BRs. RESULTS: Periaxonal application of 1 μM CAP decreased the amplitude of the C-wave in the compound action potential conducting at <1 m/sec along the aortic depressor nerve. 10 μM CAP eliminated the C-wave while leaving intact the A-wave conducting in the A-δ range (<12 m/sec). These whole nerve results suggest that TRPV1 receptors are expressed along the axons of C- but not A-conducting BR axons. In an aortic arch – aortic nerve preparation, intralumenal perfusion with 1 μM CAP had no effect on the pressure-discharge relations of regularly discharging, single fiber BRs (A-type) – including the pressure threshold, sensitivity, frequency at threshold, or maximum discharge frequency (n = 8, p > 0.50) but completely inhibited discharge of an irregularly discharging BR (C-type). CAP at high concentrations (10–100 μM) depressed BR sensitivity in regularly discharging BRs, an effect attributed to non-specific actions. RTX (≤ 10 μM) did not affect the discharge properties of regularly discharging BRs (n = 7, p > 0.18). A CAP-sensitive BR had significantly lower discharge regularity expressed as the coefficient of variation than the CAP-resistant fibers (p < 0.002). CONCLUSION: We conclude that functional TRPV1 channels are present in C-type but not A-type (A-δ) myelinated aortic arch BRs. CAP has nonspecific inhibitory actions that are unlikely to be related to TRV1 binding since such effects were absent with the highly specific TRPV1 agonist RTX. Thus, CAP must be used with caution at very high concentrations

Optimization of Naked DNA Delivery for Interferon Subtype Immunotherapy in Cytomegalovirus Infection

Type I interferon (IFN) gene therapy modulates the immune response leading to inflammatory heart disease following cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection in a murine model of post-viral myocarditis. Efficacy of different immunisation protocols for the IFN constructs was influenced by the dose of DNA, subtype choice, combination use, pre-medication, and timing of DNA administration. Optimal efficacy was found with bupivacaine treatment prior to DNA inoculation of 200mg IFN DNA 14 days prior to virus challenge. Maximal antiviral and antimyocarditic effects were achieved with this vaccination schedule. Furthermore, inoculation of synergistic IFN subtypes demonstrated enhanced efficacy when delivered either alone or with CMV gB DNA vaccination in the CMV model. Thus naked DNA delivery of IFN provides an avenue of immunotherapy for regulating herpesvirus-induced diseases

Mark Carney and the gendered political economy of British central banking

In this article we explore Mark Carney’s place in the gendered political economy of British central banking. We document the gendered narratives surrounding Carney around the time of his appointment as Governor of the Bank of England, suggesting that they worked to naturalise certain gender constructions in finance. We show how Carney seemingly had the ability to successfully embody a combination of two ideal-types of masculinity: both ‘transnational business masculinity’ and ‘traditional bourgeois masculinity’. We argue this contributed to three depoliticising moves, each of which gain their strength in part from the naturalisation of masculinities in finance, while obfuscating important questions of gendered finance. To elucidate the latter, we highlight some of the gendered outcomes that are obscured by the furore surrounding Carney’s character, suggesting that the monetary and financial stability concerns of the Bank under his stewardship are likely to reproduce the uneven and exploitative relations of gendered finance