Assessment of optimal strategies in a two-patch dengue transmission model with seasonality

Emerging and re-emerging dengue fever has posed serious problems to public health officials in many tropical and subtropical countries. Continuous traveling in seasonally varying areas makes it more difficult to control the spread of dengue fever. In this work, we consider a two-patch dengue model that can capture the movement of host individuals between and within patches using a residence-time matrix. A previous two-patch dengue model without seasonality is extended by adding host demographics and seasonal forcing in the transmission rates. We investigate the effects of human movement and seasonality on the two-patch dengue transmission dynamics. Motivated by the recent Peruvian dengue data in jungle/rural areas and coast/urban areas, our model mimics the seasonal patterns of dengue outbreaks in two patches. The roles of seasonality and residence-time configurations are highlighted in terms of the seasonal reproduction number and cumulative incidence. Moreover, optimal control theory is employed to identify and evaluate patch-specific control measures aimed at reducing dengue prevalence in the presence of seasonality. Our findings demonstrate that optimal patch-specific control strategies are sensitive to seasonality and residence-time scenarios. Targeting only the jungle (or endemic) is as effective as controlling both patches under weak coupling or symmetric mobility. However, focusing on intervention for the city (or high density areas) turns out to be optimal when two patches are strongly coupled with asymmetric mobility.ope

Connectivity of larval stages of sedentary marine communities between hard substrates and offshore structures in the North Sea

Man-made structures including rigs, pipelines, cables, renewable energy devices, and ship wrecks, offer hard substrate in the largely soft-sediment environment of the North Sea. These structures become colonised by sedentary organisms and non-migratory reef fish, and form local ecosystems that attract larger predators including seals, birds, and fish. It is possible that these structures form a system of interconnected reef environments through the planktonic dispersal of the pelagic stages of organisms by ocean currents. Changes to the overall arrangement of hard substrate areas through removal or addition of individual man-made structures will affect the interconnectivity and could impact on the ecosystem. Here, we assessed the connectivity of sectors with oil and gas structures, wind farms, wrecks, and natural hard substrate, using a model that simulates the drift of planktonic stages of seven organisms with sedentary adult stages associated with hard substrate, applied to the period 2001–2010. Connectivity was assessed using a classification system designed to address the function of sectors in the network. Results showed a relatively stable overall spatial distribution of sector function but with distinct variations between species and years. The results are discussed in the context of decommissioning of oil and gas infrastructure in the North Sea

Stochastic Differential Systems with Memory: Theory, Examples and Applications

The purpose of this article is to introduce the reader to certain aspects of stochastic differential systems, whose evolution depends on the past history of the state. Chapter I begins with simple motivating examples. These include the noisy feedback loop, the logistic time-lag model with Gaussian noise , and the classical ``heat-bath model of R. Kubo , modeling the motion of a ``large molecule in a viscous fluid. These examples are embedded in a general class of stochastic functional differential equations (sfde\u27s). We then establish pathwise existence and uniqueness of solutions to these classes of sfde\u27s under local Lipschitz and linear growth hypotheses on the coefficients. It is interesting to note that the above class of sfde\u27s is not covered by classical results of Protter, Metivier and Pellaumail and Doleans-Dade. In Chapter II, we prove that the Markov (Feller) property holds for the trajectory random field of a sfde. The trajectory Markov semigroup is not strongly continuous for positive delays, and its domain of strong continuity does not contain tame (or cylinder) functions with evaluations away from zero. To overcome this difficulty, we introduce a class of quasitame functions. These belong to the domain of the weak infinitesimal generator, are weakly dense in the underlying space of continuous functions and generate the Borel $\sigma$-algebra of the state space. This chapter also contains a derivation of a formula for the weak infinitesimal generator of the semigroup for sufficiently regular functions, and for a large class of quasitame functions. In Chapter III, we study pathwise regularity of the trajectory random field in the time variable and in the initial path. Of note here is the non-existence of the stochastic flow for the singular sdde $dx(t)= x(t-r) dW(t)$ and a breakdown of linearity and local boundedness. This phenomenon is peculiar to stochastic delay equations. It leads naturally to a classification of sfde\u27s into regular and singular types. Necessary and sufficient conditions for regularity are not known. The rest of Chapter III is devoted to results on sufficient conditions for regularity of linear systems driven by white noise or semimartingales, and Sussman-Doss type nonlinear sfde\u27s. Building on the existence of a compacting stochastic flow, we develop a multiplicative ergodic theory for regular linear sfde\u27s driven by white noise, or general helix semimartingales (Chapter IV). In particular, we prove a Stable Manifold Theorem for such systems. In Chapter V, we seek asymptotic stability for various examples of one-dimensional linear sfde\u27s. Our approach is to obtain upper and lower estimates for the top Lyapunov exponent. Several topics are discussed in Chapter VI. These include the existence of smooth densities for solutions of sfde\u27s using the Malliavin calculus, an approximation technique for multidimensional diffusions using sdde\u27s with small delays, and affine sfde\u27s