Functional co-monotony of processes with applications to peacocks and barrier options

We show that several general classes of stochastic processes satisfy a functional co-monotony principle, including processes with independent increments, Brownian diffusions, Liouville processes. As a first application, we recover some recent results about peacock processes obtained by Hirsch et al. which were themselves motivated by a former work of Carr et al. about the sensitivity of Asian Call options with respect to their volatility and residual maturity (seniority). We also derive semi-universal bounds for various barrier options.Comment: 27 page

Climate oscillation and the invasion of alien species influence the oceanic distribution of seabirds

Spatial and temporal distribution of seabird transiting and foraging at sea is an important consideration for marine conservation planning. Using at-sea observations of seabirds (n = 317), collected during the breeding season from 2012 to 2016, we built boosted regression tree (BRT) models to identify relationships between numerically dominant seabird species (red-footed booby, brown noddy, white tern, and wedge-tailed shearwater), geomorphology, oceanographic variability, and climate oscillation in the Chagos Archipelago. We documented positive relationships between red-footed booby and wedge-tailed shearwater abundance with the strength in the Indian Ocean Dipole, as represented by the Dipole Mode Index (6.7% and 23.7% contribution, respectively). The abundance of red-footed boobies, brown noddies, and white terns declined abruptly with greater distance to island (17.6%, 34.1%, and 41.1% contribution, respectively). We further quantified the effects of proximity to rat-free and rat-invaded islands on seabird distribution at sea and identified breaking point distribution thresholds. We detected areas of increased abundance at sea and habitat use-age under a scenario where rats are eradicated from invaded nearby islands and recolonized by seabirds. Following rat eradication, abundance at sea of red-footed booby, brown noddy, and white terns increased by 14%, 17%, and 3%, respectively, with no important increase detected for shearwaters. Our results have implication for seabird conservation and island restoration. Climate oscillations may cause shifts in seabird distribution, possibly through changes in regional productivity and prey distribution. Invasive species eradications and subsequent island recolonization can lead to greater access for seabirds to areas at sea, due to increased foraging or transiting through, potentially leading to distribution gains and increased competition. Our approach predicting distribution after successful eradications enables anticipatory threat mitigation in these areas, minimizing competition between colonies and thereby maximizing the risk of success and the conservation impact of eradication programs

Van Allen Probes, THEMIS, GOES, and Cluster Observations of EMIC waves, ULF pulsations, and an electron flux dropout

We examined an electron flux dropout during the 12-14 November 2012 geomagnetic storm using observations from seven spacecraft: the two Van Allen Probes, Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS)-A (P5), Cluster 2, and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 13, 14, and 15. The electron fluxes for energies greater than 2.0 MeV observed by GOES 13, 14, and 15 at geosynchronous orbit and by the Van Allen Probes remained at or near instrumental background levels for more than 24 h from 12 to 14 November. For energies of 0.8 MeV, the GOES satellites observed two shorter intervals of reduced electron fluxes. The first interval of reduced 0.8 MeV electron fluxes on 12-13 November was associated with an interplanetary shock and a sudden impulse. Cluster, THEMIS, and GOES observed intense He+ electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves from just inside geosynchronous orbit out to the magnetopause across the dayside to the dusk flank. The second interval of reduced 0.8 MeV electron fluxes on 13-14 November was associated with a solar sector boundary crossing and development of a geomagnetic storm with Dst<100 nT. At the start of the recovery phase, both the 0.8 and 2.0 MeV electron fluxes finally returned to near prestorm values, possibly in response to strong ultralow frequency (ULF) waves observed by the Van Allen Probes near dawn. A combination of adiabatic effects, losses to the magnetopause, scattering by EMIC waves, and acceleration by ULF waves can explain the observed electron behavior

Interplay of Quantum Criticality and Geometric Frustration in Columbite

Motivated by CoNb2O6 (belonging to the columbite family of minerals), we theoretically study the physics of quantum ferromagnetic Ising chains coupled anti-ferromagnetically on a triangular lattice in the plane perpendicular to the chain direction. We combine exact solutions of the chain physics with perturbative approximations for the transverse couplings. When the triangular lattice has an isosceles distortion (which occurs in the real material), the T=0 phase diagram is rich with five different states of matter: ferrimagnetic, N\'eel, anti-ferromagnetic, paramagnetic and incommensurate phases, separated by quantum phase transitions. Implications of our results to experiments on CoNb2O6 are discussed

The Energy Landscape, Folding Pathways and the Kinetics of a Knotted Protein

The folding pathway and rate coefficients of the folding of a knotted protein are calculated for a potential energy function with minimal energetic frustration. A kinetic transition network is constructed using the discrete path sampling approach, and the resulting potential energy surface is visualized by constructing disconnectivity graphs. Owing to topological constraints, the low-lying portion of the landscape consists of three distinct regions, corresponding to the native knotted state and to configurations where either the N- or C-terminus is not yet folded into the knot. The fastest folding pathways from denatured states exhibit early formation of the N-terminus portion of the knot and a rate-determining step where the C-terminus is incorporated. The low-lying minima with the N-terminus knotted and the C-terminus free therefore constitute an off-pathway intermediate for this model. The insertion of both the N- and C-termini into the knot occur late in the folding process, creating large energy barriers that are the rate limiting steps in the folding process. When compared to other protein folding proteins of a similar length, this system folds over six orders of magnitude more slowly.Comment: 19 page

Marine Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas in the Chagos Archipelago

This is the final version. Available on open access from Cambridge University Press via the DOI in this recordSeabirds are declining globally and are one of the most threatened groups of birds. To halt or reverse this decline they need protection both on land and at sea, requiring site-based conservation initiatives based on seabird abundance and diversity. The Important Bird and Biodiversity Area (IBA) programme is a method of identifying the most important places for birds based on globally agreed standardised criteria and thresholds. However, while great strides have been made identifying terrestrial sites, at-sea identification is lacking. The Chagos Archipelago, central Indian Ocean, supports four terrestrial IBAs (tIBAs) and two proposed marine IBAs (mIBAs). The mIBAs are seaward extensions to breeding colonies based on outdated information and, other types of mIBA have not been explored. Here, we review the proposed seaward extension mIBAs using up-to-date seabird status and distribution information and, use global positioning system (GPS) tracking from Red-footed Booby Sula sula – one of the most widely distributed breeding seabirds on the archipelago – to identify any pelagic mIBAs. We demonstrate that due to overlapping boundaries of seaward extension to breeding colony and pelagic areas of importance there is a single mIBA in the central Indian Ocean that lays entirely within the Chagos Archipelago Marine Protected Area (MPA). Covering 62,379 km2 it constitutes ~10% of the MPA and if designated, would become the 11th largest mIBA in the world and 4th largest in the Indian Ocean. Our research strengthens the evidence of the benefits of large-scale MPAs for the protection of marine predators and provides a scientific foundation stone for marine biodiversity hotspot research in the central Indian Ocean.Bertarelli Foundatio

Laser Cooling of Optically Trapped Molecules

Calcium monofluoride (CaF) molecules are loaded into an optical dipole trap (ODT) and subsequently laser cooled within the trap. Starting with magneto-optical trapping, we sub-Doppler cool CaF and then load $150(30)$ CaF molecules into an ODT. Enhanced loading by a factor of five is obtained when sub-Doppler cooling light and trapping light are on simultaneously. For trapped molecules, we directly observe efficient sub-Doppler cooling to a temperature of $60(5)$ $\mu\text{K}$. The trapped molecular density of $8(2)\times10^7$ cm$^{-3}$ is an order of magnitude greater than in the initial sub-Doppler cooled sample. The trap lifetime of 750(40) ms is dominated by background gas collisions.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figure

Support and Assessment for Fall Emergency Referrals (SAFER 1) trial protocol. Computerised on-scene decision support for emergency ambulance staff to assess and plan care for older people who have fallen: evaluation of costs and benefits using a pragmatic cluster randomised trial

Background: Many emergency ambulance calls are for older people who have fallen. As half of them are left at home, a community-based response may often be more appropriate than hospital attendance. The SAFER 1 trial will assess the costs and benefits of a new healthcare technology - hand-held computers with computerised clinical decision support (CCDS) software - to help paramedics decide who needs hospital attendance, and who can be safely left at home with referral to community falls services. Methods/Design: Pragmatic cluster randomised trial with a qualitative component. We shall allocate 72 paramedics ('clusters') at random between receiving the intervention and a control group delivering care as usual, of whom we expect 60 to complete the trial. Patients are eligible if they are aged 65 or older, live in the study area but not in residential care, and are attended by a study paramedic following an emergency call for a fall. Seven to 10 days after the index fall we shall offer patients the opportunity to opt out of further follow up. Continuing participants will receive questionnaires after one and 6 months, and we shall monitor their routine clinical data for 6 months. We shall interview 20 of these patients in depth. We shall conduct focus groups or semi-structured interviews with paramedics and other stakeholders. The primary outcome is the interval to the first subsequent reported fall (or death). We shall analyse this and other measures of outcome, process and cost by 'intention to treat'. We shall analyse qualitative data thematically. Discussion: Since the SAFER 1 trial received funding in August 2006, implementation has come to terms with ambulance service reorganisation and a new national electronic patient record in England. In response to these hurdles the research team has adapted the research design, including aspects of the intervention, to meet the needs of the ambulance services. In conclusion this complex emergency care trial will provide rigorous evidence on the clinical and cost effectiveness of CCDS for paramedics in the care of older people who have fallen

Optimal siting, sizing, and enforcement of marine protected areas

The design of protected areas, whether marine or terrestrial, rarely considers how people respond to the imposition of no-take sites with complete or incomplete enforcement. Consequently, these protected areas may fail to achieve their intended goal. We present and solve a spatial bio-economic model in which a manager chooses the optimal location, size, and enforcement level of a marine protected area (MPA). This manager acts as a Stackelberg leader, and her choices consider villagers’ best response to the MPA in a spatial Nash equilibrium of fishing site and effort decisions. Relevant to lower income country settings but general to other settings, we incorporate limited enforcement budgets, distance costs of traveling to fishing sites, and labor allocation to onshore wage opportunities. The optimal MPA varies markedly across alternative manager goals and budget sizes, but always induce changes in villagers’ decisions as a function of distance, dispersal, and wage. We consider MPA managers with ecological conservation goals and with economic goals, and identify the shortcomings of several common manager decision rules, including those focused on: (1) fishery outcomes rather than broader economic goals, (2) fish stocks at MPA sites rather than across the full marinescape, (3) absolute levels rather than additional values, and (4) costless enforcement. Our results demonstrate that such naïve or overly narrow decision rules can lead to inefficient MPA designs that miss economic and conservation opportunities

Formation of Supermassive Black Holes

Evidence shows that massive black holes reside in most local galaxies. Studies have also established a number of relations between the MBH mass and properties of the host galaxy such as bulge mass and velocity dispersion. These results suggest that central MBHs, while much less massive than the host (~ 0.1%), are linked to the evolution of galactic structure. In hierarchical cosmologies, a single big galaxy today can be traced back to the stage when it was split up in hundreds of smaller components. Did MBH seeds form with the same efficiency in small proto-galaxies, or did their formation had to await the buildup of substantial galaxies with deeper potential wells? I briefly review here some of the physical processes that are conducive to the evolution of the massive black hole population. I will discuss black hole formation processes for `seed' black holes that are likely to place at early cosmic epochs, and possible observational tests of these scenarios.Comment: To appear in The Astronomy and Astrophysics Review. The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.co