Cardiovascular disease risk prediction using automated machine learning: A prospective study of 423,604 UK Biobank participants.

BACKGROUND: Identifying people at risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is a cornerstone of preventative cardiology. Risk prediction models currently recommended by clinical guidelines are typically based on a limited number of predictors with sub-optimal performance across all patient groups. Data-driven techniques based on machine learning (ML) might improve the performance of risk predictions by agnostically discovering novel risk predictors and learning the complex interactions between them. We tested (1) whether ML techniques based on a state-of-the-art automated ML framework (AutoPrognosis) could improve CVD risk prediction compared to traditional approaches, and (2) whether considering non-traditional variables could increase the accuracy of CVD risk predictions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using data on 423,604 participants without CVD at baseline in UK Biobank, we developed a ML-based model for predicting CVD risk based on 473 available variables. Our ML-based model was derived using AutoPrognosis, an algorithmic tool that automatically selects and tunes ensembles of ML modeling pipelines (comprising data imputation, feature processing, classification and calibration algorithms). We compared our model with a well-established risk prediction algorithm based on conventional CVD risk factors (Framingham score), a Cox proportional hazards (PH) model based on familiar risk factors (i.e, age, gender, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, reception of treatments for hypertension and body mass index), and a Cox PH model based on all of the 473 available variables. Predictive performances were assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). Overall, our AutoPrognosis model improved risk prediction (AUC-ROC: 0.774, 95% CI: 0.768-0.780) compared to Framingham score (AUC-ROC: 0.724, 95% CI: 0.720-0.728, p < 0.001), Cox PH model with conventional risk factors (AUC-ROC: 0.734, 95% CI: 0.729-0.739, p < 0.001), and Cox PH model with all UK Biobank variables (AUC-ROC: 0.758, 95% CI: 0.753-0.763, p < 0.001). Out of 4,801 CVD cases recorded within 5 years of baseline, AutoPrognosis was able to correctly predict 368 more cases compared to the Framingham score. Our AutoPrognosis model included predictors that are not usually considered in existing risk prediction models, such as the individuals' usual walking pace and their self-reported overall health rating. Furthermore, our model improved risk prediction in potentially relevant sub-populations, such as in individuals with history of diabetes. We also highlight the relative benefits accrued from including more information into a predictive model (information gain) as compared to the benefits of using more complex models (modeling gain). CONCLUSIONS: Our AutoPrognosis model improves the accuracy of CVD risk prediction in the UK Biobank population. This approach performs well in traditionally poorly served patient subgroups. Additionally, AutoPrognosis uncovered novel predictors for CVD disease that may now be tested in prospective studies. We found that the "information gain" achieved by considering more risk factors in the predictive model was significantly higher than the "modeling gain" achieved by adopting complex predictive models

Reservoir Management by Reducing Evaporation Using Floating Photovoltaic System: A Case Study of Lake Nasser, Egypt

Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. The shortage of water is a major obstruction to the social and economic development of many countries, including Egypt. Therefore, there is an urgent need to properly manage water resources to achieve optimum water use. One way of saving available water resources is to reduce evaporation that leads to the loss of a large amount of water from reservoirs and open lakes. This paper aims to use a floating photovoltaic system (FPVS) to cover a lake’s water surface to reduce evaporation and also for energy production. This methodology was applied to Lake Nasser as one of the largest lakes in the world where much evaporation happens due to its large area, arid environments, and the shallow depths of some parts of the lake. The estimated evaporation from the lake was 12.0 × 109 m3/year. The results show that covering 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of the lake can save about 2.1, 4.2, 6.3, 7.0, and 8.4 × 109 m3/year and produce energy of 2.85 × 109, 5.67 × 109, 8.54 × 109, and 11.38 × 109 MWh/year, respectively. Covering areas of shallow water depth was more efficient and economical. The results show that covering 15% of the lake’s area (depths from 0.0 to 3.0 m) can save 2.66 × 109 m3/year and produce 1.7 MWh/year. Covering 25% of the lake’s area (depths from 0.0 to 7.0) can save 3.5 × 109 m3/year and produce 2.854 MWh/year. Using an FPVS to cover parts of Lake Nasser could help manage water resources and energy production for Egypt to overcome the likely shortage of water resources due to population growth. This system could be applied in different locations of the world which could help in increasing water resources and energy production, especially in arid and semi-arid regionsThis work was supported by the projects of the Ministry of Education of the Slovak Republic, VEGA 1/0217/19: Research of Hybrid Blue and Green Infrastructure as Active Elements of a Sponge City, VEGA 1/0308/20: Mitigation of hydrological hazards—floods and droughts—by exploring extreme hydroclimatic phenomena in river basins, and the project of the Slovak Research and Development Agency APVV‐18‐0360: Active hybrid infrastructure towards a sponge city

Does Vascular Calcification Accelerate Inflammation?: A Substudy of the dal-PLAQUE Trial.

BACKGROUND: Atherosclerosis is an inflammatory condition with calcification apparent late in the disease process. The extent and progression of coronary calcification predict cardiovascular events. Relatively little is known about noncoronary vascular calcification. OBJECTIVES: This study investigated noncoronary vascular calcification and its influence on changes in vascular inflammation. METHODS: A total of 130 participants in the dal-PLAQUE (Safety and efficacy of dalcetrapib on atherosclerotic disease using novel non-invasive multimodality imaging) study underwent fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography at entry and at 6 months. Calcification of the ascending aorta, arch, carotid, and coronary arteries was quantified. Cardiovascular risk factors were related to arterial calcification. The influences of baseline calcification and drug therapy (dalcetrapib vs. placebo) on progression of calcification were determined. Finally, baseline calcification was related to changes in vascular inflammation. RESULTS: Age >65 years old was consistently associated with higher baseline calcium scores. Arch calcification trended to progress more in those with calcification at baseline (p = 0.055). There were no significant differences between progression of vascular calcification with dalcetrapib compared to that with placebo. Average carotid target-to-background ratio indexes declined over 6 months if carotid calcium was absent (single hottest slice [p = 0.037], mean of maximum target-to-background ratio [p = 0.010], and mean most diseased segment [p < 0.001]), but did not significantly change if calcification was present at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Across multiple arterial regions, higher age is consistently associated with higher calcium scores. The presence of vascular calcification at baseline is associated with progressive calcification; in the carotid arteries, calcification appears to influence vascular inflammation. Dalcetrapib therapy did not affect vascular calcification.The study was supported by F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd, Basel, Switzerland. Some editorial assistance was provided by Prime Healthcare and was funded by F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd, Basel, Switzerland. Partial support is acknowledged from NIH/NHLBI R01 HL071021 (ZAF). We thank Elisabetta Damonte for helping with statistical analyses.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2015.10.05

Imaging Atherosclerosis.

Advances in atherosclerosis imaging technology and research have provided a range of diagnostic tools to characterize high-risk plaque in vivo; however, these important vascular imaging methods additionally promise great scientific and translational applications beyond this quest. When combined with conventional anatomic- and hemodynamic-based assessments of disease severity, cross-sectional multimodal imaging incorporating molecular probes and other novel noninvasive techniques can add detailed interrogation of plaque composition, activity, and overall disease burden. In the catheterization laboratory, intravascular imaging provides unparalleled access to the world beneath the plaque surface, allowing tissue characterization and measurement of cap thickness with micrometer spatial resolution. Atherosclerosis imaging captures key data that reveal snapshots into underlying biology, which can test our understanding of fundamental research questions and shape our approach toward patient management. Imaging can also be used to quantify response to therapeutic interventions and ultimately help predict cardiovascular risk. Although there are undeniable barriers to clinical translation, many of these hold-ups might soon be surpassed by rapidly evolving innovations to improve image acquisition, coregistration, motion correction, and reduce radiation exposure. This article provides a comprehensive review of current and experimental atherosclerosis imaging methods and their uses in research and potential for translation to the clinic.J.M.T. is supported by a Wellcome Trust research training fellowship (104492/Z/14/Z). M.D is supported by the British Heart Foundation (FS/14/78/31020). N.R.E. is supported by a research training fellowship from the Dunhill Medical Trust (RTF44/0114). A.J.B. is supported by the British Heart Foundation. J.H.F.R. is part-supported by the HEFCE, the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, the British Heart Foundation, and the Wellcome Trust.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from the American Heart Association via http://dx.doi.org/10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.115.30624

Annual outpatient hysteroscopy and endometrial sampling (OHES) in HNPCC/Lynch syndrome (LS)

Background: LS women have a 40-60 % lifetime risk of endometrial cancer (EC). Most international guidelines recommend screening. However, data on efficacy are limited. Purpose: To assess the performance of OHES for EC screening in LS and compare it with transvaginal ultrasound (TVS) alone. Methods: A prospective observational cohort study of LS women attending a tertiary high-risk familial gynaecological cancer clinic was conducted. LS women opting for EC screening underwent annual OHES and TVS. Histopathological specimens were processed using a strict protocol. Data of women screened between October 2007 and March 2010 were analysed from a bespoke database. Histology was used as the gold standard. Diagnostic accuracy of OHES was compared with TVS using specificity, and positive (PLR) and negative (NLR) likelihood ratios. Results: Forty-one LS women underwent 69 screens (41 prevalent, 28 incident). Four (three prevalent, one incident) women were detected to have EC/atypical endometrial hyperplasia (AEH), five had endometrial polyps and two had endometrial hyperplasia (EH) on OHES. TVS detected two of four EC/AEH. OHES had similar specificity of 89.8 % (CI 79.2, 96.2 %), but higher PLR 9.8 (CI 4.6, 21) and lower NLR (zero) compared to TVS: specificity 84.75 %(CI 73, 92.8 %), PLR 3.28 (CI 1.04, 10.35) and NLR 0.59 (CI 0.22, 1.58). No interval cancers occurred over a median follow-up of 22 months. The annual incidence was 3.57 % (CI 0.09, 18.35) for EC, 10.71 % (CI 2.27, 28.23) for polyps and 21.4 % (CI 8.3, 40.1) for any endometrial pathology. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that in LS, annual OHES is acceptable and has high diagnostic accuracy for EC/AEH screening. Larger international studies are needed for confirmation, given the relatively small numbers of LS women at individual centres. It reinforces the current recommendation that endometrial sampling is crucial when screening these women. © 2012 Springer-Verlag

Short-term changes in arterial inflammation predict long-term changes in atherosclerosis progression.

PURPOSE: It remains unclear whether changes in arterial wall inflammation are associated with subsequent changes in the rate of structural progression of atherosclerosis. METHODS: In this sub-study of the dal-PLAQUE clinical trial, multi-modal imaging was performed using 18-fludeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET, at 0 and 6 months) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, at 0 and 24 months). The primary objective was to determine whether increasing FDG uptake at 6 months predicted atherosclerosis progression on MRI at 2 years. Arterial inflammation was measured by the carotid FDG target-to-background ratio (TBR), and atherosclerotic plaque progression was defined as the percentage change in carotid mean wall area (MWA) and mean wall thickness (MWT) on MRI between baseline and 24 months. RESULTS: A total of 42 participants were included in this sub-study. The mean age of the population was 62.5 years, and 12 (28.6 %) were women. In participants with (vs. without) any increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months, the long-term changes in both MWT (% change MWT: 17.49 % vs. 1.74 %, p = 0.038) and MWA (% change MWA: 25.50 % vs. 3.59 %, p = 0.027) were significantly greater. Results remained significant after adjusting for clinical and biochemical covariates. Individuals with no increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months had no significant structural progression of atherosclerosis over 24 months as measured by MWT (p = 0.616) or MWA (p = 0.373). CONCLUSIONS: Short-term changes in arterial inflammation are associated with long-term structural atherosclerosis progression. These data support the concept that therapies that reduce arterial inflammation may attenuate or halt progression of atherosclerosis.F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd, McMaster University (Early Career Investigator award), National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, British Heart Foundation, Wellcome Trus

Public perceptions and attitudes toward thalassaemia: Influencing factors in a multi-racial population

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Thalassaemia is a common public health problem in Malaysia and about 4.5 to 6% of the Malays and Chinese are carriers of this genetic disorder. The major forms of thalassaemia result in death <it>in utero </it>of affected foetuses (α-thalassaemia) or life-long blood transfusions for survival in β-thalassaemia. This study, the first nationwide population based survey of thalassaemia in Malaysia, aimed to determine differences in public awareness, perceptions and attitudes toward thalassaemia in the multi-racial population in Malaysia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional computer-assisted telephone interview survey of a representative sample of multi-racial Malaysians aged 18 years and above was conducted between July and December 2009.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of a total of 3723 responding households, 2846 (76.4%) have heard of thalassaemia. Mean knowledge score was 11.85 (SD ± 4.03), out of a maximum of 21, with higher scores indicating better knowledge. Statistically significant differences (<it>P </it>< 0.05) in total knowledge score by age groups, education attainment, employment status, and average household income were observed. Although the majority expressed very positive attitudes toward screening for thalassaemia, only 13.6% of married participants interviewed have been screened for thalassaemia. The majority (63.4%) were unsupportive of selective termination of foetuses diagnosed with thalassaemia major.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Study shows that carrier and premarital screening programs for thalassaemia may be more effective and culturally acceptable in the reduction of pregnancies with thalassaemia major. The findings provide insights into culturally congruent educational interventions to reach out diverse socio-demographic and ethnic communities to increase knowledge and cultivate positive attitudes toward prevention of thalassaemia.</p

Clinical Spectrum and Management of Diabetic Ketoacidosis: Experience in A Tertiary Care Hospital

Abstract Background: Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is an acute metabolic complication of diabetes mellitus (DM). It may be the presenting feature in type 1 DM, but more commonly it complicates previously diagnosed diabetic patients, both type 1 and type 2. If not recognized early and treated in a judicious way the outcome is often fatal