A Monte-Carlo approach to estimating the effects of selected airport capacity options in London

The issue of future airport capacity in London is currently the subject of much political debate in the UK. Although realistic estimates of the effects of capacity enhancement may be desirable, such estimates are difficult. Through the use of Monte Carlo simulation, this paper quantifies and compares the relative capacity enhancements that may be afforded by the construction of a new hub airport in the Thames Estuary, additional runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted and changes to operating practices at Heathrow. The simulations show that a new hub airport would be the most effective way to increase capacity, although the reported financial and environmental costs of such a development indicate a comparatively poor rate of return. Proposed new runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted and the removal of runway alternation at Heathrow provide more modest increases in capacity

British airways’ move to Terminal 5 at London Heathrow airport: A statistical analysis of transfer baggage performance

This article was published in the serial, Journal of Air Transport Management [© Elsevier]. The definitive version is available at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699710000876This paper investigates transfer baggage performance when British Airways’ occupancy of Terminal 5 at London Heathrow Airport took place. Operational data on transfer baggage performance are collated from BA performance scorecards and the Gini coefficient is used as a measure of consolidation of flight operations within a single terminal and in the investigation of correlation of consolidated flights in Terminal 5 with transfer baggage performance variation. The relationship between consolidation of operations in the terminal and improving transfer baggage performance is found to be significant. In addition, there is evidence of significant changes in transfer baggage performance on switch phases of flights as they were moved to Terminal 5 in steps. The exclusive use of a terminal gives improved performance

The Role of Secondary Airports for Today's Low-Cost Carrier Business Models: The European Case

One of the core characteristics of Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs) is their use of secondary and regional airports. However, nothing is fixed as the market constantly evolves and carriers modify their strategies in order to achieve growth. This paper uses the examples of Ryanair, easyJet and Norwegian to show how changes to LCC business models are affecting secondary airports across Europe. Using a content analysis, this paper first describes how airport choice factors for LCCs have evolved over the last 10 years. This is followed by a data analysis of historical and current airline network capacity to identify how LCC traffic at secondary airports is developing. The paper finds that cost, demand and efficiency are still the most important criteria for LCCs when choosing an airport to operate from. However, it also identifies that LCCs have become more interested in serving business passengers, which is why they are increasingly using primary airports (accounting for 58% of their recent capacity growth). Through the use of a selection of case airports it is finally concluded that the evolution of LCCs increases competition between primary and secondary gateways. In most cases, secondary airports are losing a significant amount of LCC traffic and only sustain flights to less important destinations. This research puts into question the future importance of secondary airports for LCCs. As not all airports have been impacted by the hybridisation of LCCs to the same extent, the results are not equally applicable to the whole European airport industry

A comparison of two methods for reducing take-off delay at London

Abstract This paper describes recent research into the departure process at London Heathrow, with the primary motivation of reducing the amount of fuel used, improving both the economic and environmental cost. Two proposals are considered here. The first proposal considers the practicality and potential benefits of aiding the controller to improve the take-off sequencing. The second proposal aims to absorb some of the inevitable delay for aircraft at the stands, before the engines are started, but also involves a take-off sequencing aspect. Models for the two take-off sequencing problems are presented in this paper, the second of which includes an additional pushback time (or TSAT) allocation sub-problem which has to be solved subsequently. These models have distinctive differences from the models for the takeoff and arrival sequencing problems which are usually considered in the literature, since they take into account necessary constraints imposed due to the control problem (whether a sequence can actually be achieved, and how) in each case. As discussed in this paper, the control problem cannot be ignored by the controllers at Heathrow, so cannot be ignored by any realistic system to aid them in their tasks. Comparative take-off sequencing results are presented for the two systems and the potential benefits from providing decision support to the runway controllers or improved TSAT allocation at the stands are considered. The paper ends with some overall conclusions from the research, showing the large potential benefits of these systems. The TSAT allocation system which is discussed in this paper has been developed for implementation at London Heathrow as one element of the Collaborative Decision Making project.