Agreement between questionnaires and registry data on routes to diagnosis and milestone dates of the cancer diagnostic pathway

BACKGROUND The routes to diagnosis and the time intervals along the diagnostic pathway affect cancer outcomes. Some data on routes to diagnosis and milestone dates can be extracted from registries or databases. When this data is incomplete, inaccurate or non-existing, other data sources are needed. This study investigates the agreement between multiple data sources on routes to diagnosis and milestone dates of cancer pathway. METHODS Information on routes to diagnosis and milestone dates were compared across four data sources (cancer patients, general practitioners, cancer specialists and registries) for breast, colorectal, lung and ovarian cancers across the UK, Scandinavia, Canada and Australia. Agreement on routes to diagnosis and milestone dates was assessed by Kappa and AC1 coefficients and Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). RESULTS 4502 patients were included in the analysis of routes to diagnosis. The agreement was almost perfect (kappa = 0.15–0.88, AC1 = 0.86–0.91) for breast cancer, substantial to almost perfect (kappa = 0.07–0.86, AC1 = 0.74–0.93) for colorectal and ovarian cancers, and substantial (kappa = 0.09–0.11, AC1 = 0.65–0.74) for lung cancer. 2287 patients were included in the analysis of milestone dates. The agreement was adequate for all cancer types (CCC = 0.88–0.99); highest agreement was seen for date of diagnosis (CCC = 0.94–0.99). CONCLUSION We found a reasonable agreement between patient/physician questionnaires and registry data for routes to diagnosis and milestone dates. The agreement on routes to diagnosis was generally higher for breast cancer than for colorectal, ovarian and lung cancers. Lower agreement was seen on date of first presentation to primary care and date of treatment initiation compared to date of diagnosis

Superconductivity. Quasiparticle mass enhancement approaching optimal doping in a high-T(c) superconductor.

In the quest for superconductors with higher transition temperatures (T(c)), one emerging motif is that electronic interactions favorable for superconductivity can be enhanced by fluctuations of a broken-symmetry phase. Recent experiments have suggested the existence of the requisite broken-symmetry phase in the high-T(c) cuprates, but the impact of such a phase on the ground-state electronic interactions has remained unclear. We used magnetic fields exceeding 90 tesla to access the underlying metallic state of the cuprate YBa2Cu3O(6+δ) over a wide range of doping, and observed magnetic quantum oscillations that reveal a strong enhancement of the quasiparticle effective mass toward optimal doping. This mass enhancement results from increasing electronic interactions approaching optimal doping, and suggests a quantum critical point at a hole doping of p(crit) ≈ 0.18.This work is supported by the US Department of Energy BES \Science at 100 T," the National Science Foundation, the State of Florida, the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research. S.E.S. ac- knowledges support from the Royal Society and the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) / ERC Grant Agree- ment no. 337425.This is the accepted manuscript. The final version is available at http://www.sciencemag.org/content/348/6232/317.abstract?sid=a882093c-ded2-481c-b62b-2f79a56b5689

Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments

Classical ecological theory predicts that environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk by reducing the average per-capita growth rate of populations. To understand the interactive effects of environmental stochasticity, spatial heterogeneity, and dispersal on population growth, we study the following model for population abundances in $n$ patches: the conditional law of $X_{t+dt}$ given $X_t=x$ is such that when $dt$ is small the conditional mean of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ is approximately $[x^i\mu_i+\sum_j(x^j D_{ji}-x^i D_{ij})]dt$, where $X_t^i$ and $\mu_i$ are the abundance and per capita growth rate in the $i$-th patch respectivly, and $D_{ij}$ is the dispersal rate from the $i$-th to the $j$-th patch, and the conditional covariance of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ and $X_{t+dt}^j-X_t^j$ is approximately $x^i x^j \sigma_{ij}dt$. We show for such a spatially extended population that if $S_t=(X_t^1+...+X_t^n)$ is the total population abundance, then $Y_t=X_t/S_t$, the vector of patch proportions, converges in law to a random vector $Y_\infty$ as $t\to\infty$, and the stochastic growth rate $\lim_{t\to\infty}t^{-1}\log S_t$ equals the space-time average per-capita growth rate \sum_i\mu_i\E[Y_\infty^i] experienced by the population minus half of the space-time average temporal variation \E[\sum_{i,j}\sigma_{ij}Y_\infty^i Y_\infty^j] experienced by the population. We derive analytic results for the law of $Y_\infty$, find which choice of the dispersal mechanism $D$ produces an optimal stochastic growth rate for a freely dispersing population, and investigate the effect on the stochastic growth rate of constraints on dispersal rates. Our results provide fundamental insights into "ideal free" movement in the face of uncertainty, the persistence of coupled sink populations, the evolution of dispersal rates, and the single large or several small (SLOSS) debate in conservation biology.Comment: 47 pages, 4 figure

Evaluation of machine-learning methods for ligand-based virtual screening

Machine-learning methods can be used for virtual screening by analysing the structural characteristics of molecules of known (in)activity, and we here discuss the use of kernel discrimination and naive Bayesian classifier (NBC) methods for this purpose. We report a kernel method that allows the processing of molecules represented by binary, integer and real-valued descriptors, and show that it is little different in screening performance from a previously described kernel that had been developed specifically for the analysis of binary fingerprint representations of molecular structure. We then evaluate the performance of an NBC when the training-set contains only a very few active molecules. In such cases, a simpler approach based on group fusion would appear to provide superior screening performance, especially when structurally heterogeneous datasets are to be processed

Single-plant chambers to control humidity for pathological studies

The construction of a set of controlled-humidity chambers for single plants is described. Accurate control of relative humidity (r.h.) between 40% and 99% was achieved by mixing dry air with a saturated air stream using solenoid valves controlled by a programmable data logger. At values of r.h. >90%, mean values over periods greater than 1 min were constant to within ±0-1% and spot measurements at 3 s intervals were within 0-3% of the mean value. The system responded to a step change of r.h. in about 6-10 min and diurnal changes of r.h. were reproduced, similar to those observed in nature. The stability of control made it possible to differentiate between the requirement of liquid water and very high humidity (98% r.h.) for conidial germination and subsequent infection of groundnut by Phaeoisariopsis personata, the cause of late leaf spot disease

Evolution of Fruit Traits in Ficus Subgenus Sycomorus (Moraceae): To What Extent Do Frugivores Determine Seed Dispersal Mode?

Fig trees are a ubiquitous component of tropical rain forests and exhibit an enormous diversity of ecologies. Focusing on Ficus subgenus Sycomorus, a phenotypically diverse and ecologically important Old World lineage, we examined the evolution of fruit traits using a molecular phylogeny constructed using 5 kilobases of DNA sequence data from 63 species (50% of global diversity). In particular, we ask whether patterns of trait correlations are consistent with dispersal agents as the primary selective force shaping morphological diversity or if other ecological factors may provide a better explanation? Fig colour, size and placement (axial, cauliflorous, or geocarpic) were all highly evolutionarily liable, and the same fruit traits have evolved in different biogeographic regions with substantially different dispersal agents. After controlling for phylogenetic autocorrelation, we found that fig colour and size were significantly associated with fig placement and plant-life history traits (maximum plant height and leaf area, respectively). However, contrary to prevailing assumptions, fig placement correlated poorly with known dispersal agents and appears more likely determined by other factors, such as flowering phenology, nutrient economy, and habitat preference. Thus, plant life-history, both directly and through its influence on fig placement, appears to have played a prominent role in determining fruit traits in these figs

A multicentre, randomised controlled trial comparing the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of early nutritional support via the parenteral versus the enteral route in critically ill patients (CALORIES)

BACKGROUND: Malnutrition is a common problem in critically ill patients in UK NHS critical care units. Early nutritional support is therefore recommended to address deficiencies in nutritional state and related disorders in metabolism. However, evidence is conflicting regarding the optimum route (parenteral or enteral) of delivery. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effect of early nutritional support via the parenteral route compared with the enteral route on mortality at 30 days and on incremental cost-effectiveness at 1 year. Secondary objectives were to compare the route of early nutritional support on duration of organ support; infectious and non-infectious complications; critical care unit and acute hospital length of stay; all-cause mortality at critical care unit and acute hospital discharge, at 90 days and 1 year; survival to 90 days and 1 year; nutritional and health-related quality of life, resource use and costs at 90 days and 1 year; and estimated lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness. DESIGN: A pragmatic, open, multicentre, parallel-group randomised controlled trial with an integrated economic evaluation. SETTING: Adult general critical care units in 33 NHS hospitals in England. PARTICIPANTS: 2400 eligible patients. INTERVENTIONS: Five days of early nutritional support delivered via the parenteral (n = 1200) and enteral (n = 1200) route. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause mortality at 30 days after randomisation and incremental net benefit (INB) (at £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year) at 1 year. RESULTS: By 30 days, 393 of 1188 (33.1%) patients assigned to receive early nutritional support via the parenteral route and 409 of 1195 (34.2%) assigned to the enteral route had died [p = 0.57; absolute risk reduction 1.15%, 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.65 to 4.94; relative risk 0.97 (0.86 to 1.08)]. At 1 year, INB for the parenteral route compared with the enteral route was negative at -£1320 (95% CI -£3709 to £1069). The probability that early nutritional support via the parenteral route is more cost-effective - given the data - is < 20%. The proportion of patients in the parenteral group who experienced episodes of hypoglycaemia (p = 0.006) and of vomiting (p < 0.001) was significantly lower than in the enteral group. There were no significant differences in the 15 other secondary outcomes and no significant interactions with pre-specified subgroups. LIMITATIONS: Blinding of nutritional support was deemed to be impractical and, although the primary outcome was objective, some secondary outcomes, although defined and objectively assessed, may have been more vulnerable to observer bias. CONCLUSIONS: There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality at 30 days for early nutritional support via the parenteral route compared with the enteral route among adults admitted to critical care units in England. On average, costs were higher for the parenteral route, which, combined with similar survival and quality of life, resulted in negative INBs at 1 year. FUTURE WORK: Nutritional support is a complex combination of timing, dose, duration, delivery and type, all of which may affect outcomes and costs. Conflicting evidence remains regarding optimum provision to critically ill patients. There is a need to utilise rigorous consensus methods to establish future priorities for basic and clinical research in this area. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN17386141. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 28. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

Ecological implications of a flower size/number trade-off in tropical forest trees

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