Effective judgmental forecasting in the context of fashion products

We study the conditions that influence judgmental forecasting effectiveness when predicting demand in the context of fashion products. Human judgment is of practical importance in this setting. Our goal is to investigate what type of decision support, in particular historical and/or contextual predictors, should be provided to human forecasters to improve their ability to detect and exploit linear and nonlinear cue-criterion relationships in the task environment. Using a field experiment on new product forecasts in the music industry, our analysis reveals that when forecasters are concerned with predictive accuracy and only managerial judgments are employed, providing both types of decision support data is beneficial. However, if judgmental forecasts are combined with a statistical forecast, restricting the decision support provided to human judges to contextual anchors is beneficial. We identify two novel interactions demonstrating that the exploitation of nonlinearities is easiest for human judgment if contextual data are present but historical data are absent. Thus, if the role of human judgment is to detect these nonlinearities (and the linearities are taken care of by some statistical model with which judgments are combined), then a restriction of the decision support provided would make sense. Implications for the theory and practice of building decision support models are discussed

Long-Term Programming of Antigen-Specific Immunity from Gene Expression Signatures in the PBMC of Rhesus Macaques Immunized with an SIV DNA Vaccine

While HIV-1-specific cellular immunity is thought to be critical for the suppression of viral replication, the correlates of protection have not yet been determined. Rhesus macaques (RM) are an important animal model for the study and development of vaccines against HIV/AIDS. Our laboratory has helped to develop and study DNA-based vaccines in which recent technological advances, including genetic optimization and in vivo electroporation (EP), have helped to dramatically boost their immunogenicity. In this study, RMs were immunized with a DNA vaccine including individual plasmids encoding SIV gag, env, and pol alone, or in combination with a molecular adjuvant, plasmid DNA expressing the chemokine ligand 5 (RANTES), followed by EP. Along with standard immunological assays, flow-based activation analysis without ex vivo restimulation and high-throughput gene expression analysis was performed. Strong cellular immunity was induced by vaccination which was supported by all assays including PBMC microarray analysis that identified the up-regulation of 563 gene sequences including those involved in interferon signaling. Furthermore, 699 gene sequences were differentially regulated in these groups at peak viremia following SIVmac251 challenge. We observed that the RANTES-adjuvanted animals were significantly better at suppressing viral replication during chronic infection and exhibited a distinct pattern of gene expression which included immune cell-trafficking and cell cycle genes. Furthermore, a greater percentage of vaccine-induced central memory CD8+ T-cells capable of an activated phenotype were detected in these animals as measured by activation analysis. Thus, co-immunization with the RANTES molecular adjuvant followed by EP led to the generation of cellular immunity that was transcriptionally distinct and had a greater protective efficacy than its DNA alone counterpart. Furthermore, activation analysis and high-throughput gene expression data may provide better insight into mechanisms of viral control than may be observed using standard immunological assays

Unusual Polymorphisms in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Associated with Nonprogressive Infection

Factors accounting for long-term nonprogression may include infection with an attenuated strain of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), genetic polymorphisms in the host, and virus-specific immune responses. In this study, we examined eight individuals with nonprogressing or slowly progressing HIV-1 infection, none of whom were homozygous for host-specific polymorphisms (CCR5-Δ32, CCR2-64I, and SDF-1-3\u27A) which have been associated with slower disease progression. HIV-1 was recovered from seven of the eight, and recovered virus was used for sequencing the full-length HIV-1 genome; full-length HIV-1 genome sequences from the eighth were determined following amplification of viral sequences directly from peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC). Longitudinal studies of one individual with HIV-1 that consistently exhibited a slow/low growth phenotype revealed a single amino acid deletion in a conserved region of the gp41 transmembrane protein that was not seen in any of 131 envelope sequences in the Los Alamos HIV-1 sequence database. Genetic analysis also revealed that five of the eight individuals harbored HIV-1 with unusual 1- or 2-amino-acid deletions in the Gag sequence compared to subgroup B Gag consensus sequences. These deletions in Gag have either never been observed previously or are extremely rare in the database. Three individuals had deletions in Nef, and one had a 4-amino-acid insertion in Vpu. The unusual polymorphisms in Gag, Env, and Nef described here were also found in stored PBMC samples taken 3 to 11 years prior to, or in one case 4 years subsequent to, the time of sampling for the original sequencing. In all, seven of the eight individuals exhibited one or more unusual polymorphisms; a total of 13 unusual polymorphisms were documented in these seven individuals. These polymorphisms may have been present from the time of initial infection or may have appeared in response to immune surveillance or other selective pressures. Our results indicate that unusual, difficult-to-revert polymorphisms in HIV-1 can be found associated with slow progression or nonprogression in a majority of such cases

Improvisation and Transformation: Yes to the Mess

The field of organizational change has chiefly been studied from a teleological perspective. Most models of change emphasize action that is rational and goal oriented. What often gets overlooked and under theorized is the continuous, iterative nature of organizational life, the unplanned and serendipitous actions by and between people that lead to new discoveries and innovation. Recent research on organizational improvisation seeks to explore this area. In this chapter we will address two questions – what is the experience of improvisation and what are the conditions that support improvisation to flourish in organizations? In the first part of this paper, we look at the phenomenology of improvisation, the actual lived experience of those who improvise in the face of the unknown or in the midst of chaotic conditions. We will explore the strategies that some professional improvisers employ to deliberately create the improvisatory moment. We will then look at the dynamics of organizational life and explore the cultural beliefs, organizational structures, and leadership practices that support improvisation. We will draw primarily upon the model from Barrett (2012) that focuses on the how the nature of jazz improvisation and the factors that support improvisation can be transferred to leadership activities. This falls in the tradition of others who draw upon arts-based metaphors, including jazz music and theatrical improvisation, to suggest insights for leadership and ways of organizing. Since this is a book devoted to individual transformation as well as organizational transformation, we will also touch on the topic of how improvisation is a developmental project and explore the potential for improvisation to lead to personal transformation. We will attempt to move back and forth between both themes – organizational and personal transformation. Ultimately the two topics are not separate. Any significant organizational transformation begins with an improvisation. And any meaningful improvisatory move by a person is potentially a moment of self-discovery and an identity-shaping event

Examining the generalizability of research findings from archival data

This initiative examined systematically the extent to which a large set of archival research findings generalizes across contexts. We repeated the key analyses for 29 original strategic management effects in the same context (direct reproduction) as well as in 52 novel time periods and geographies; 45% of the reproductions returned results matching the original reports together with 55% of tests in different spans of years and 40% of tests in novel geographies. Some original findings were associated with multiple new tests. Reproducibility was the best predictor of generalizability-for the findings that proved directly reproducible, 84% emerged in other available time periods and 57% emerged in other geographies. Overall, only limited empirical evidence emerged for context sensitivity. In a forecasting survey, independent scientists were able to anticipate which effects would find support in tests in new samples

A biophysical model of dynamic balancing of excitation and inhibition in fast oscillatory large-scale networks

Over long timescales, neuronal dynamics can be robust to quite large perturbations, such as changes in white matter connectivity and grey matter structure through processes including learning, aging, development and certain disease processes. One possible explanation is that robust dynamics are facilitated by homeostatic mechanisms that can dynamically rebalance brain networks. In this study, we simulate a cortical brain network using the Wilson-Cowan neural mass model with conduction delays and noise, and use inhibitory synaptic plasticity (ISP) to dynamically achieve a spatially local balance between excitation and inhibition. Using MEG data from 55 subjects we find that ISP enables us to simultaneously achieve high correlation with multiple measures of functional connectivity, including amplitude envelope correlation and phase locking. Further, we find that ISP successfully achieves local E/I balance, and can consistently predict the functional connectivity computed from real MEG data, for a much wider range of model parameters than is possible with a model without ISP

Examining the generalizability of research findings from archival data

This initiative examined systematically the extent to which a large set of archival research findings generalizes across contexts. We repeated the key analyses for 29 original strategic management effects in the same context (direct reproduction) as well as in 52 novel time periods and geographies; 45% of the reproductions returned results matching the original reports together with 55% of tests in different spans of years and 40% of tests in novel geographies. Some original findings were associated with multiple new tests. Reproducibility was the best predictor of generalizability—for the findings that proved directly reproducible, 84% emerged in other available time periods and 57% emerged in other geographies. Overall, only limited empirical evidence emerged for context sensitivity. In a forecasting survey, independent scientists were able to anticipate which effects would find support in tests in new samples