Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO oceanic synthesis

This study aims at improving the forecast skill of climate predictions through the use of ocean synthesis data for initial conditions of a coupled climate model. For this purpose, the coupled model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) for Meteorology, which consists of the atmosphere model ECHAM5 and the MPI Ocean Model (MPI-OM), is initialized with oceanic synthesis fields available from the German contribution to Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (GECCO) project. The use of an anomaly coupling scheme during the initialization avoids the main problems with drift in the climate predictions. Thus, the coupled model is continuously forced to follow the density anomalies of the GECCO synthesis over the period 1952-2001. Hindcast experiments are initialized from this experiment at constant intervals. The results show predictive skill through the initialization up to the decadal time scale, particularly over the North Atlantic. Viewed over the time scales analyzed here (annual, 5-yr, and 10-yr mean), greater skill for the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) is obtained in the hindcast experiments than in either a damped persistence or trend forecast. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation hindcast closely follows that of the GECCO oceanic synthesis. Hindcasts of global-mean temperature do not obtain greater skill than either damped persistence or a trend forecast, owing to the SST errors in the GECCO synthesis, outside the North Atlantic. An ensemble of forecast experiments is subsequently performed over the period 2002-11. North Atlantic SST from the forecast experiment agrees well with observations until the year 2007, and it is higher than if simulated without the oceanic initialization (averaged over the forecast period). The results confirm that both the initial and the boundary conditions must be accounted for in decadal climate predictions

Investigation on the trophic state of the North Sea for three years (1994?1996) simulated with the ecosystem model ERSEM ? the role of a sharp NAOI decline

International audienceApplying the ecosystem model ERSEM to the Northwest-European shelf (48°?63°N, 15°W?12°E) the years 1994-1996 were simulated, which exhibit an extremely strong transition in North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOI): from a high-NAOI to a low-NAOI regime. In order to be far enough from the boundaries of the model area the results and budgets are focussed on the North Sea area. For this region the model was validated against climatological values of nitrate as representative nutrient. For all three years the North Sea was found to be net heterotrophic: organic material was imported, inorganic material was exported. The strength of this "remineralisation-machine" was large during NAOI-high years (1994 and 1995). It was weaker in 1996 with a low NAOI. This was caused by higher net primary production in the northern North Sea during summer 1996. In this year the stratification was weaker and began later allowing the deep nutrient-rich water in the northern North Sea to be mixed into the upper layers also during early summer

Forecast skill of multi-year seasonal means in the decadal prediction system of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

We examine the latest decadal predictions performed with the coupled model MPI-ESM as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We use ensembles of uninitialized and yearly initialized experiments to estimate the forecast skill for surface air temperature. Like for its precursor, the initialisation of MPI-ESM improves forecast skill for yearly and multi-yearly means, predominately over the North Atlantic for all lead times. Over the tropical Pacific, negative skill scores reflect a systematic error in the initialisation. We also examine the forecast skill of multi-year seasonal means. Skill scores of winter means are predominantly positive over northern Europe. In contrast, summer to autumn means reveal positive skill scores over central and south-eastern Europe. The skill scores of summer means are attributable to an observed pressure-gradient response to the North Atlantic surface temperatures

Expression of DC-SIGN and DC-SIGNR on human sinusoidal endothelium: a role for capturing hepatitis C virus particles.

Hepatic sinusoidal endothelial cells are unique among endothelial cells in their ability to internalize and process a diverse range of antigens. DC-SIGNR, a type 2 C-type lectin expressed on liver sinusoids, has been shown to bind with high affinity to hepatitis C virus (HCV) E2 glycoprotein. DC-SIGN is a closely related homologue reported to be expressed only on dendritic cells and a subset of macrophages and has similar binding affinity to HCV E2 glycoprotein. These receptors function as adhesion and antigen presentation molecules. We report distinct patterns of DC-SIGNR and DC-SIGN expression in human liver tissue and show for the first time that both C-type lectins are expressed on sinusoidal endothelial cells. We confirmed that these receptors are functional by demonstrating their ability to bind HCV E2 glycoproteins. Although these lectins on primary sinusoidal cells support HCV E2 binding, they are unable to support HCV entry. These data support a model where DC-SIGN and DC-SIGNR on sinusoidal endothelium provide a mechanism for high affinity binding of circulating HCV within the liver sinusoids allowing subsequent transfer of the virus to underlying hepatocytes, in a manner analogous to DC-SIGN presentation of human immunodeficiency virus on dendritic cells

Skill and added value of the MiKlip regional decadal prediction system for temperature over Europe

In recent years, several decadal prediction systems have been developed to provide multi-year predictions of the climate for the next 5–10 years. On the global scale, high decadal predictability has been identified for the North Atlantic sector, often extending over Europe. The first full regional hindcast ensemble, derived from dynamical downscaling, was produced within the German MiKlip project (‘decadal predictions’). The ensemble features annual starting dates from 1960 to 2017, with 10 decadal hindcasts per starting year. The global component of the prediction system uses the MPI-ESM-LR and the downscaling is performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The present study focusses on a range of aspects dealing with the skill and added value of regional decadal temperature predictions over Europe. The results substantiate the added value of the regional hindcasts compared to the forcing global model as well as to un-initialized simulations. The results show that the hindcasts are skilful both for annual and seasonal means, and that the scores are comparable for different observational reference data sets. The predictive skill increases from earlier to more recent start-years. A recalibration of the simulation data generally improves the skill further, which can also be transferred to more user-relevant variables and extreme values like daily maximum temperatures and heating degree-days. These results provide evidence of the potential for the regional climate predictions to provide valuable climate information on the decadal time-scale to users

Improved seasonal prediction of European summer temperatures with new five-layer soil-hydrology scheme

We evaluate the impact of a new 5-layer soil-hydrology scheme on seasonal hindcast skill of 2-meter temperatures over Europe obtained with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Assimilation experiments from 1981 to 2010 and 10-member seasonal hindcasts initialized on 1 May each year are performed with MPI-ESM in two soil configurations, one using a bucket scheme and one a new 5-layer soil-hydrology scheme. We find the seasonal hindcast skill for European summer temperatures to improve with the 5-layer scheme compared to the bucket scheme, and investigate possible causes for these improvements. First, improved indirect soil moisture assimilation allows for enhanced soil moisture-temperature feedbacks in the hindcasts. Additionally, this leads to improved prediction of anomalies in the 500 hPa geopotential height surface, reflecting more realistic atmospheric circulation patterns over Europe

Validation Analysis of the Groundwater Flow and Transport Model of the Central Nevada Test Area

The Central Nevada Test Area (CNTA) is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) site undergoing environmental restoration. The CNTA is located about 95 km northeast of Tonopah, Nevada, and 175 km southwest of Ely, Nevada (Figure 1.1). It was the site of the Faultless underground nuclear test conducted by the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (DOE's predecessor agency) in January 1968. The purposes of this test were to gauge the seismic effects of a relatively large, high-yield detonation completed in Hot Creek Valley (outside the Nevada Test Site [NTS]) and to determine the suitability of the site for future large detonations. The yield of the Faultless underground nuclear test was between 200 kilotons and 1 megaton (DOE, 2000). A three-dimensional flow and transport model was created for the CNTA site (Pohlmann et al., 1999) and determined acceptable by DOE and the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP) for predicting contaminant boundaries for the site