The Costs and Benefits of Reducing Risk from Natural Hazards to Residential Structures in Developing Countries

This paper examines the benefits and costs of improving or retrofitting residential structures in highly exposed low- and middle-income developing countries such that they are less vulnerable to hazards during their lifetime. Since it is misleading to assess the benefits of prevention using deterministic models, the challenges for cost benefit analyses are to express avoided losses in probabilistic terms, evaluate and assess risk, monetize direct and indirect benefits and include dynamic drivers such as changing population, land use and climate. In detail, we examine structures exposed to three different hazards in four countries, including hurricane risk in St. Lucia, flood risk in Jakarta, earthquake risk in Istanbul and flood risk within the Rohini River basin in Uttar Pradesh (India). The purpose in undertaking these analyses is to shed light on the benefits and costs over time, recognizing the bounds of the analysis, and to demonstrate a systematic probabilistic approach for evaluating alternative risk reducing measures

Operationalizing Resilience Against Natural Disaster Risk: Opportunities, Barriers, and a Way Forward

The risks from floods have been rising globally due to increasing population, urbanization and economic development in hazard prone areas. The number of flood disasters throughout the world nearly doubled in the decade from 2000-2009 compared to the previous decade. There have been more flood disasters in the last four years (2010-2013) than in the whole decade of the 1980's. Evidence indicates that climate change-induced sea level rise, storm surge and more intense flooding will reinforce this trend unless risk management measures are undertaken immediately to well manage future losses and make communities more resilient to flooding. It is widely recognized that there is a mutually reinforcing relationship between disaster risk and development: disasters impact development and development impacts disasters. Evidence shows that repeated disasters undermine long-term socio-economic objectives. This is particularly evident in low income countries where disasters can impede the development process. The extensive time required to recover from damage, loss of capacity with which to rebuild and systemic risk negatively affect livelihoods in these countries, in the extreme case trapping people in poverty. In developed countries, recent floods triggered massive economic losses and undermined long-term competitiveness. The impact of disasters is felt most acutely by households and communities. In both developing and developed countries alike, local level studies strongly indicate that the poor suffer disproportionately due to the lack of financial and social safety nets, and institutional representation. Development can affect disaster risk via three main channels: by (1) increasing the physical assets and people exposed to the risk, (2) increasing the capacity to reduce the risk, respond to the risk and recover from the risk and (3) increasing or decreasing the vulnerability based on specific development strategies chosen. We identify this interaction as a key research gap; taking account of and balancing development opportunities with disaster risk will require a paradigm shift in the way we think about and do both development and disaster risk management

Cosmic Bell Test using Random Measurement Settings from High-Redshift Quasars

In this Letter, we present a cosmic Bell experiment with polarization-entangled photons, in which measurement settings were determined based on real-time measurements of the wavelength of photons from high-redshift quasars, whose light was emitted billions of years ago, the experiment simultaneously ensures locality. Assuming fair sampling for all detected photons and that the wavelength of the quasar photons had not been selectively altered or previewed between emission and detection, we observe statistically significant violation of Bell's inequality by $9.3$ standard deviations, corresponding to an estimated $p$ value of $\lesssim 7.4 \times 10^{-21}$. This experiment pushes back to at least $\sim 7.8$ Gyr ago the most recent time by which any local-realist influences could have exploited the "freedom-of-choice" loophole to engineer the observed Bell violation, excluding any such mechanism from $96\%$ of the space-time volume of the past light cone of our experiment, extending from the big bang to today.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, plus Supplemental Material (16 pages, 8 figures). Matches version to be published in Physical Review Letter

The Value of Global Earth Observations

Humankind has never been so populous, technically equipped, and economically and culturally integrated as it is today. In the twenty-first century, societies are confronted with a multitude of challenges in their efforts to manage the Earth system

The Risk and Policy Space for Loss and Damage: Integrating Notions of Distributive and Compensatory Justice with Comprehensive Climate Risk Management

The Warsaw Loss and Damage Mechanism holds high appeal for complementing actions on climate change adaptation and mitigation, and for delivering needed support for tackling intolerable climate related-risks that will neither be addressed by mitigation nor by adaptation. Yet, negotiations under the UNFCCC are caught between demands for climate justice, understood as compensation, for increases in extreme and slow-onset event risk, and the reluctance of other parties to consider Loss and Damage outside of an adaptation framework. Working towards a jointly acceptable position we suggest an actionable way forward for the deliberations may be based on aligning comprehensive climate risk analytics with distributive and compensatory justice considerations. Our proposed framework involves in a short-medium term, needs-based perspective support for climate risk management beyond countries ability to absorb risk. In a medium-longer term, liability-based perspective we particularly suggest to consider liabilities attributable to anthropogenic climate change and associated impacts. We develop the framework based on principles of need and liability, and identify the policy space for Loss and Damage as composed of curative and transformative measures. Transformative measures, such as managed retreat, have already received attention in discussions on comprehensive climate risk management. Curative action is less clearly defined, and more contested. Among others, support for a climate displacement facility could qualify here. For both sets of measures, risk financing (such as ‘climate insurance’) emerges as an entry point for further policy action, as it holds potential for both risk management as well as compensation functions. To quantify the Loss and Damage space for specific countries, we suggest as one option to build on a risk layering approach that segments risk and risk interventions according to risk tolerance. An application to fiscal risks in Bangladesh and at the global scale provides an estimate of countries’ financial support needs for dealing with intolerable layers of flood risk. With many aspects of Loss and Damage being of immaterial nature, we finally suggest that our broad risk and justice approach in principle can also see application to issues such as migration and preservation of cultural heritage

Prospect theory, mitigation and adaptation to climate change

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges in current environmental policy. Appropriate policies intended to stimulate efficient adaptation and mitigation should not exclusively rely on the assumption of the homo oeconomicus, but take advantage of well-researched alternative behavioural patterns. Prospect theory provides a number of climate-relevant insights, such as the notion that evaluations of outcomes are reference dependent, and the relevance of perceived certainty of outcomes. This paper systematically reviews what prospect theory can offer to analyse mitigation and adaptation. It is shown that accounting for reference dependence and certainty effects contributes to a better understanding of some well-known puzzles in the climate debate, including (but not limited to) the different uptake of mitigation and adaptation amongst individuals and nations, the role of technical vs. financial adaptation, and the apparent preference for hard protection measures in coastal adaptation. Finally, concrete possibilities for empirical research on these effects are proposed

The functional significance of microRNA-145 in prostate cancer

BackgroundMicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small noncoding RNAs that have important roles in numerous cellular processes. Recent studies have shown aberrant expression of miRNAs in prostate cancer tissues and cell lines. On the basis of miRNA microarray data, we found that miR-145 is significantly downregulated in prostate cancer.Methods and resultsWe investigated the expression and functional significance of miR-145 in prostate cancer. The expression of miR-145 was low in all the prostate cell lines tested (PC3, LNCaP and DU145) compared with the normal cell line, PWR-1E, and in cancerous regions of human prostate tissue when compared with the matched adjacent normal. Overexpression of miR-145 in PC3-transfected cells resulted in increased apoptosis and an increase in cells in the G2/M phase, as detected by flow cytometry. Investigation of the mechanisms of inactivation of miR-145 through epigenetic pathways revealed significant DNA methylation of the miR-145 promoter region in prostate cancer cell lines. Microarray analyses of miR-145-overexpressing PC3 cells showed upregulation of the pro-apoptotic gene TNFSF10, which was confirmed by real-time PCR and western analysis.ConclusionOne of the genes significantly upregulated by miR-145 overexpression is the proapoptotic gene TNFSF10. Therefore, modulation of miR-145 may be an important therapeutic approach for the management of prostate cancer